Next game
vs Wartburg
Sat Oct 24 · 2 pm ET
Chalmers Field · series 0-4, lost the last 4
University of Dubuque 48% to win · our ratings after 6 games
University of Dubuque
4-2American Rivers · Chalmers Field · 4,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 56-27 at Simpson (IA)
Our model gave University of Dubuque 46% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Wartburg 48%, Coe 58%
Win out 25% · expect 3.0 of 4 more wins
University of Dubuque's chance to win each game left, from our model: Wartburg 48%, Buena Vista 98%, Coe 58%, Loras 92%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Wartburg · our model 48% University of Dubuque
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
University of Dubuque · 2026 schedule and results4-2Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 48%.Our rank entering each game: #528 to #492
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #528 | #462 | — | Wisconsin Stout | L 20-34 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #528 | #437 | — | @Wisconsin Platteville | L 0-59 | 0-2 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #538 | #453 | — | McMurry | W 35-28 | 1-2 | 0-0 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #532 | #469 | — | @Central College | W 35-13 | 2-2 | 1-0 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #501 | #645 | — | Nebraska Wesleyan | W 44-22 | 3-2 | 2-0 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #492 | #536 | — | @Simpson (IA) | W 56-27 | 4-2 | 3-0 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #461 | #434 | Wartburg | 2 pm ET48% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #460 | #656 | @Buena Vista | 2 pm ET98% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Coe | 2 pm ET58% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Loras | 2 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for University of Dubuque, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for University of Dubuque: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
University of Dubuque has won four of its last five.
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last four.
Streak W4Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 6-4
Range of outcomes · University of Dubuque · 2026
Range of outcomes · University of Dubuque · 2026University of Dubuque’s most likely regular season is 7-3. 98% of outcomes land from 6-4 to 8-2.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 2%; 6 wins 25%; 7 wins 48%; 8 wins 25%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor6-6Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base8-4Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling10-2Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-2
Game feel62even gamescombined pts / game4th highest-scoring of 8 in the American Rivers
Heart rate1-0some dramain one-score games (1 of 6)4th most one-score games of 8 in the American Rivers
Margin+1.2competitiveavg scoring margin4th best margin of 8 in the American Rivers
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among American Rivers teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Dubuque is the small Iowa university that built 11 conference championships and a steady playoff pipeline under generations of coaching continuity, proving that consistent competence is its own form of excellence.
Title DroughtSince 2015 · 11 yrs
No chip — Dubuque's identity is too settled, too rooted in regional competence to carry a grievance. The fanbase accepts its place in the ARC hierarchy.
Game day
The experience
Dubuque is the small Iowa university that built 11 conference championships and a steady playoff pipeline under generations of coaching continuity, proving that consistent competence is its own form of excellence.
Playoff path
University of Dubuque sits 1st in the American Rivers Conference and 60th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — on the at-large bubble — the conference title is the surer route.
American Rivers · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dubuque | 3-0 | 4-2 | 59.5 |
| 2 | Wartburg | 3-0 | 4-2 | 57.4 |
| 3 | Coe | 3-0 | 4-2 | 53.6 |
| 4 | Simpson (IA) | 2-1 | 3-3 | 50.0 |
| 5 | Central College | 1-2 | 3-3 | 52.6 |
| 6 | Loras | 0-3 | 2-4 | 44.6 |
| 7 | Buena Vista | 0-3 | 1-5 | 36.4 |
| 8 | Nebraska Wesleyan | 0-3 | 0-6 | 34.8 |
59.5 CFB Zeitgeist#60 of 245 D355.0 strength of schedule
Win the American Rivers Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 4-2
Signature win 56-27 over Simpson (IA); toughest day 0-59 against Wisconsin Platteville.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site