Next game
at Dubuque
Sat Oct 24 · 2 pm ET
Chalmers Field · series 4-0, won the last 4
Wartburg College 52% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Wartburg College
4-2American Rivers · Walston-Hoover Stadium · 4,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 68-7 at Loras
Our model gave Wartburg College 77% before kickoff
The rest of the season
One real test left: Dubuque 52%
Win out 26% · expect 2.9 of 4 more wins
Wartburg College's chance to win each game left, from our model: Dubuque 52%, Simpson (IA) 91%, Central College 73%, Coe 75%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Dubuque · our model 52% Wartburg College
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Wartburg College · 2026 schedule and results4-2Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 44%.Our rank entering each game: #447 to #445
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #447 | #480 | — | @Monmouth (IL) | W 36-21 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #447 | #431 | — | North Central College | L 20-26 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #444 | #429 | — | Wisconsin River Falls | L 14-31 | 1-2 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #446 | #621 | — | @Nebraska Wesleyan | W 69-26 | 2-2 | 1-0 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #444 | #649 | — | Buena Vista | W 72-14 | 3-2 | 2-0 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #445 | #562 | — | @Loras | W 68-7 | 4-2 | 3-0 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #434 | #461 | @Dubuque | 2 pm ET52% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #433 | #568 | Simpson (IA) | 3 pm ET91% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Central College | 2 pm ET73% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Coe | 2 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Wartburg College, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Wartburg College: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Wartburg College has won three of its last five.
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last three.
Streak W3Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 7-3
Range of outcomes · Wartburg College · 2026
Range of outcomes · Wartburg College · 2026Wartburg College’s most likely regular season is 7-3. 95% of outcomes land from 6-4 to 8-2.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 5%; 6 wins 24%; 7 wins 45%; 8 wins 26%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor6-6Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base8-4Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling10-2Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-2
Game feel67shootoutscombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 8 in the American Rivers
Heart rate0-1some dramain one-score games (1 of 6)5th most one-score games of 8 in the American Rivers
Margin+25.7comfortableavg scoring margin1st best margin of 8 in the American Rivers
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among American Rivers teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Wartburg is the ARC power that broke through its own ceiling under Chris Winter — four consecutive conference titles, two national semifinal runs, and a program permanently redrawn by the belief that the Knights belong in November.
Title DroughtSince 1974 · 52 yrs
Fans here believe iowa's other successful college football programs, Iowa, Iowa State, dominate the state narrative and media cycles. Wartburg knows it's the best-kept secret in Division III, and…
Game day
The experience
Wartburg is the ARC power that broke through its own ceiling under Chris Winter — four consecutive conference titles, two national semifinal runs, and a program permanently redrawn by the belief that the Knights belong in November.
Playoff path
Wartburg College sits 2nd in the American Rivers Conference and 75th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
American Rivers · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dubuque | 3-0 | 4-2 | 59.5 |
| 2 | Wartburg | 3-0 | 4-2 | 57.4 |
| 3 | Coe | 3-0 | 4-2 | 53.6 |
| 4 | Simpson (IA) | 2-1 | 3-3 | 50.0 |
| 5 | Central College | 1-2 | 3-3 | 52.6 |
| 6 | Loras | 0-3 | 2-4 | 44.6 |
| 7 | Buena Vista | 0-3 | 1-5 | 36.4 |
| 8 | Nebraska Wesleyan | 0-3 | 0-6 | 34.8 |
57.4 CFB Zeitgeist#75 of 245 D350.1 strength of schedule1 quality win
Win the American Rivers Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 4-2
Signature win 68-7 over Loras; toughest day 14-31 against Wisconsin River Falls.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site