Next game
at Central College
Sat Oct 24 · 2 pm ET
Ron and Joyce Schipper Stadium · series 0-4, lost the last 4
Buena Vista University 4% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Buena Vista University
1-5American Rivers · J. Leslie Rollins Stadium · 3,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 9-42 vs Coe
Our model gave Buena Vista University 14% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: Nebraska Wesleyan 49%
Win out <1% · expect 0.7 of 4 more wins
Buena Vista University's chance to win each game left, from our model: Central College 4%, Dubuque 2%, Loras 15%, Nebraska Wesleyan 49%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Central College · our model 4% Buena Vista University
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Buena Vista University · 2026 schedule and results1-5Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 50%.Our rank entering each game: #637 to #649
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #637 | #530 | — | Benedictine (IL) | L 14-41 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #639 | #661 | — | @Lawrence | W 26-14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #636 | #640 | — | @Minnesota Morris | L 28-30 | 1-2 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #634 | #573 | — | Simpson (IA) | L 20-51 | 1-3 | 0-1 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #649 | #444 | — | @Wartburg | L 14-72 | 1-4 | 0-2 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #649 | #475 | — | Coe | L 9-42 | 1-5 | 0-3 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #656 | #493 | @Central College | 2 pm ET4% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #656 | #460 | Dubuque | 2 pm ET2% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Loras | 2 pm ET15% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Nebraska Wesleyan | 2 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Buena Vista University, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Buena Vista University: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Buena Vista University has won one of its last five.
2-8 over the last 10, and lost the last four.
Streak L4Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 2-8
Range of outcomes · Buena Vista University · 2026
Range of outcomes · Buena Vista University · 2026Buena Vista University’s most likely regular season is 2-8. 99% of outcomes land from 1-9 to 3-7.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
1 wins 40%; 2 wins 49%; 3 wins 10%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor1-11Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base2-10Mid-table finish.
Ceiling5-7Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 1-5
Game feel60even gamescombined pts / game5th highest-scoring of 8 in the American Rivers
Heart rate0-1white-knucklein one-score games (1 of 6)1st most one-score games of 8 in the American Rivers
Margin-23.2outgunnedavg scoring margin7th best margin of 8 in the American Rivers
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among American Rivers teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Buena Vista is the Iowa pioneer — founded 1898, football since the earliest days of organized college sports, a small university with 128 years of continuous football and a place in the historic Iowa Intercollegiate Athletic Association.
Title DroughtSince 1978 · 48 yrs
No real chip — Buena Vista is too small, too quiet, too rooted in regional pride to carry a grievance. The fanbase knows the program is not going to shock the Division III world.
Game day
The experience
Buena Vista is the Iowa pioneer — founded 1898, football since the earliest days of organized college sports, a small university with 128 years of continuous football and a place in the historic Iowa Intercollegiate Athletic Association.
Playoff path
Buena Vista University sits 7th in the American Rivers Conference and 211th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
American Rivers · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dubuque | 3-0 | 4-2 | 59.5 |
| 2 | Wartburg | 3-0 | 4-2 | 57.4 |
| 3 | Coe | 3-0 | 4-2 | 53.6 |
| 4 | Simpson (IA) | 2-1 | 3-3 | 50.0 |
| 5 | Central College | 1-2 | 3-3 | 52.6 |
| 6 | Loras | 0-3 | 2-4 | 44.6 |
| 7 | Buena Vista | 0-3 | 1-5 | 36.4 |
| 8 | Nebraska Wesleyan | 0-3 | 0-6 | 34.8 |
36.4 CFB Zeitgeist#211 of 245 D348.1 strength of schedule
Win the American Rivers Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 1-5
Signature win 26-14 over Lawrence; toughest day 14-72 against Wartburg.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site