Next game
vs Wisconsin Eau Claire
Sat Oct 24 · 2 pm ET
David Smith Stadium at Ramer Field · series 4-0, won the last 4
UW-River Falls 66% to win · our ratings after 6 games
UW-River Falls
4-2Wisconsin · David Smith Stadium at Ramer Field · 2,300 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 0-42 at Wisconsin Platteville
Our model gave UW-River Falls 27% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Wisconsin La Crosse 44%, Wisconsin Eau Claire 66%, Wisconsin Stout 66%
Win out 19% · expect 2.7 of 4 more wins
UW-River Falls's chance to win each game left, from our model: Wisconsin Eau Claire 66%, Wisconsin Stout 66%, Wisconsin La Crosse 44%, Wisconsin Stevens Point 97%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Wisconsin Eau Claire · our model 66% UW-River Falls
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
UW-River Falls · 2026 schedule and results4-2Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 66%.Our rank entering each game: #429 to #416
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #429 | #602 | — | Southern Virginia | W 73-7 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #429 | #463 | — | @Coe | W 38-6 | 2-0 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #429 | #444 | — | @Wartburg | W 31-14 | 3-0 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #428 | #423 | — | @Wisconsin Whitewater | L 16-24 | 3-1 | 0-1 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #418 | #463 | — | Wisconsin Oshkosh | W 34-31 | 4-1 | 1-1 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #416 | #422 | — | @Wisconsin Platteville | L 0-42 | 4-2 | 1-2 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #416 | #526 | Wisconsin Eau Claire | 2 pm ET66% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #416 | #431 | Wisconsin Stout | 2:05 pm ET66% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Wisconsin La Crosse | 2 pm ET44% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Wisconsin Stevens Point | 2 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for UW-River Falls, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for UW-River Falls: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
UW-River Falls has won three of its last five.
8-2 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 8-2
Range of outcomes · UW-River Falls · 2026
Range of outcomes · UW-River Falls · 2026UW-River Falls’ most likely regular season is 7-3. 93% of outcomes land from 6-4 to 8-2.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 7%; 6 wins 31%; 7 wins 43%; 8 wins 19%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor6-6Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base8-4Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling10-2Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-2
Game feel53even gamescombined pts / game3rd highest-scoring of 8 in the Wisconsin
Heart rate1-1some dramain one-score games (2 of 6)5th most one-score games of 8 in the Wisconsin
Margin+11.3competitiveavg scoring margin4th best margin of 8 in the Wisconsin
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Wisconsin teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
The sleeping giant that woke up in 2025: first playoff run since 1996 became a national championship — River Falls is proof that the standard is attainable.
Title DroughtSince 1985 · 41 yrs
Fans believe they proved something in 2025: the hunger to matter nationally, and River Falls satisfied it.
Game day
The experience
The sleeping giant that woke up in 2025: first playoff run since 1996 became a national championship — River Falls is proof that the standard is attainable.
Playoff path
UW-River Falls sits 5th in the Wisconsin Conference and 39th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — inside the projected 40-team field on the at-large math.
Wisconsin · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wisconsin Platteville | 3-0 | 6-0 | 79.2 |
| 2 | Wisconsin Whitewater | 3-0 | 6-0 | 74.7 |
| 3 | Wisconsin Eau Claire | 2-1 | 5-1 | 63.5 |
| 4 | Wisconsin La Crosse | 2-1 | 3-3 | 53.4 |
| 5 | Wisconsin River Falls | 1-2 | 4-2 | 62.9 |
| 6 | Wisconsin Stout | 1-2 | 3-3 | 61.6 |
| 7 | Wisconsin Oshkosh | 0-3 | 2-4 | 49.0 |
| 8 | Wisconsin Stevens Point | 0-3 | 2-4 | 44.8 |
62.9 CFB Zeitgeist#39 of 245 D359.2 strength of schedule1 quality win
Win the Wisconsin Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 4-2
Signature win 73-7 over Southern Virginia; toughest day 0-42 against Wisconsin Platteville.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site