Next game
at Belhaven
Sat Oct 24 · 1 pm ET
Belhaven Bowl Stadium · series 0-4, lost the last 4
University of Southern Virginia 43% to win · our ratings after 6 games
University of Southern Virginia
2-4USA South · Knight Stadium · 1,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 36-0 at Methodist
Our model gave University of Southern Virginia 69% before kickoff
The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: LaGrange 11%
Win out 1% · expect 1.6 of 4 more wins
University of Southern Virginia's chance to win each game left, from our model: Belhaven 43%, North Carolina Wesleyan 65%, Huntingdon 41%, LaGrange 11%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Belhaven · our model 43% University of Southern Virginia
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
University of Southern Virginia · 2026 schedule and results2-4Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 41%.Our rank entering each game: #602 to #596
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #602 | #429 | — | @Wisconsin River Falls | L 7-73 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #589 | #628 | — | Averett | L 34-41 | 0-2 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #593 | #610 | — | Keystone | W 38-14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #581 | #605 | — | @Greensboro | L 20-42 | 1-3 | 0-1 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #612 | #430 | — | Brevard | L 26-27 | 1-4 | 0-2 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #596 | #651 | — | @Methodist | W 36-0 | 2-4 | 1-2 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #576 | #539 | @Belhaven | 1 pm ET43% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #575 | #586 | North Carolina Wesleyan | 1 pm ET65% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Huntingdon | 1 pm ET41% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @LaGrange | 1 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for University of Southern Virginia, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for University of Southern Virginia: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
University of Southern Virginia has won two of its last five.
3-7 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Streak W1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 3-7
Range of outcomes · University of Southern Virginia · 2026
Range of outcomes · University of Southern Virginia · 2026University of Southern Virginia’s most likely regular season is 4-6. 99% of outcomes land from 2-8 to 5-5.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 11%; 3 wins 36%; 4 wins 38%; 5 wins 14%; 6 wins 1%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor2-10Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base4-8Mid-table finish.
Ceiling7-5Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-4
Game feel60shootoutscombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 9 in the USA South
Heart rate0-2white-knucklein one-score games (2 of 6)1st most one-score games of 9 in the USA South
Margin-6.0competitiveavg scoring margin7th best margin of 9 in the USA South
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among USA South teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
A Virginia university with USA South football rooted in regional tradition and educational mission.
Standard GapD3 identity within Virginia's USA South conference.
Game day
The experience
A Virginia university with USA South football rooted in regional tradition and educational mission.
Playoff path
University of Southern Virginia sits 6th in the USA South Conference and 184th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
USA South · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LaGrange | 3-0 | 5-1 | 64.1 |
| 2 | Huntingdon | 3-0 | 4-2 | 58.1 |
| 3 | Brevard | 2-1 | 5-1 | 58.8 |
| 4 | Belhaven | 2-1 | 3-3 | 50.1 |
| 5 | Greensboro | 1-2 | 2-4 | 43.0 |
| 6 | Southern Virginia | 1-2 | 2-4 | 41.4 |
| 7 | Maryville (TN) | 0-0 | 4-3 | 56.0 |
| 8 | North Carolina Wesleyan | 0-3 | 2-4 | 42.5 |
41.4 CFB Zeitgeist#184 of 245 D347.0 strength of schedule
Win the USA South Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 2-4
Signature win 36-0 over Methodist; toughest day 7-73 against Wisconsin River Falls.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site