Next game
at Millsaps
Sat Oct 24 · 2 pm ET
Harper Davis Field · series 4-0, won the last 4
Trinity University TX 59% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Trinity University TX
5-1Southern Athletic · Trinity University Stadium · 3,500 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 12-16 vs Maryville (TN)
Our model gave Trinity University TX 91% before kickoff
The rest of the season
One real test left: Millsaps 59%
Win out 44% · expect 3.3 of 4 more wins
Trinity University TX's chance to win each game left, from our model: Millsaps 59%, Sewanee 99%, Centre 77%, Rhodes 99%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Millsaps · our model 59% Trinity University TX
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Trinity University TX · 2026 schedule and results5-1Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 55%.Our rank entering each game: #443 to #437
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #443 | #475 | — | Texas Lutheran | W 36-14 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #443 | #454 | — | McMurry | W 31-17 | 2-0 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #443 | #470 | — | Pacific Lutheran | W 24-6 | 3-0 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #443 | #441 | — | Berry | W 23-6 | 4-0 | 1-0 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #443 | #520 | — | @Southwestern U | W 35-7 | 5-0 | 2-0 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #437 | #479 | — | Maryville (TN) | L 12-16 | 5-1 | 2-0 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #441 | #518 | @Millsaps | 2 pm ET59% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #441 | #646 | Sewanee | 2 pm ET99% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Centre | 1 pm ET77% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Rhodes | 3 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Trinity University TX, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Trinity University TX: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Trinity University TX has won four of its last five.
8-2 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 8-2
Range of outcomes · Trinity University TX · 2026
Range of outcomes · Trinity University TX · 2026Trinity University TX’s most likely regular season is 8-2. 100% of outcomes land from 7-3 to 9-1.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 10%; 8 wins 45%; 9 wins 44%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor8-4Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base10-2Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling11-1Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-1
Game feel38rock fightscombined pts / game8th highest-scoring of 8 in the Southern Athletic
Heart rate0-1some dramain one-score games (1 of 6)6th most one-score games of 8 in the Southern Athletic
Margin+15.8comfortableavg scoring margin2nd best margin of 8 in the Southern Athletic
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Southern Athletic teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
The Tigers of San Antonio, Texas, a perennial small-college power with a long string of conference championships and the program behind the 2007 'Mississippi Miracle' — fifteen laterals to beat Millsaps as time expired.
Standard GapAn elite-academic program used to winning its league, measured against…
Trinity has won its conference nearly every year for thirty years and authored one of football's most famous plays, yet still gets overlooked nationally.
Game day
The experience
The Tigers of San Antonio, Texas, a perennial small-college power with a long string of conference championships and the program behind the 2007 'Mississippi Miracle' — fifteen laterals to beat Millsaps as time expired.
Playoff path
Trinity University TX sits 1st in the Southern Athletic Conference and 34th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — inside the projected 40-team field on the at-large math.
Southern Athletic · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trinity (TX) | 2-0 | 5-1 | 64.0 |
| 2 | Hendrix | 1-0 | 4-2 | 58.1 |
| 3 | Millsaps | 3-1 | 5-1 | 58.5 |
| 4 | Berry | 2-1 | 5-1 | 65.6 |
| 5 | Centre | 1-1 | 2-4 | 44.1 |
| 6 | Southwestern U | 1-2 | 1-5 | 40.0 |
| 7 | Sewanee | 0-2 | 1-5 | 35.7 |
| 8 | Rhodes | 0-3 | 0-6 | 33.4 |
64.0 CFB Zeitgeist#34 of 245 D354.1 strength of schedule2 quality wins
Win the Southern Athletic Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 5-1
Signature win 35-7 over Southwestern U; toughest day 12-16 against Maryville (TN).
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site