Next game
at Lyon
Sat Oct 24 · 5 pm ET
Pioneer Stadium · series 4-0, won the last 4
Texas Lutheran University 89% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Texas Lutheran University
5-1Southern Collegiate Athletic · Bulldog Stadium (TX) · 1,500 seats · averaging 500 in 2026
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 34-0 vs Hendrix
Our model gave Texas Lutheran University 56% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Every game left is at least 85%
Win out 84% · expect 2.8 of 3 more wins
Texas Lutheran University's chance to win each game left, from our model: Lyon 89%, Austin 98%, Centenary (LA) 96%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Lyon · our model 89% Texas Lutheran University
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Texas Lutheran University · 2026 schedule and results5-1Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 42%.Our rank entering each game: #475 to #472
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #475 | #443 | — | @Trinity (TX) | L 14-36 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #475 | #537 | — | Southwestern U | W 19-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #479 | #611 | — | Austin | W 57-26 | 2-1 | 1-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #479 | #504 | — | @East Texas Baptist | W 61-54 | 3-1 | 1-0 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #480 | #555 | — | Lyon | W 34-12 | 4-1 | 2-0 | |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #472 | #486 | — | Hendrix | W 34-0 | 5-1 | 2-0 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #457 | #583 | @Lyon | 5 pm ET89% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #457 | #651 | @Austin | 2 pm ET98% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Centenary (LA) | 2 pm ET96% to win | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Texas Lutheran University, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Texas Lutheran University: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Texas Lutheran University has won five straight.
8-2 over the last 10, and won the last five.
Streak W5Last 5 · 5-0Last 10 · 8-2
Range of outcomes · Texas Lutheran University · 2026
Range of outcomes · Texas Lutheran University · 2026Texas Lutheran University’s most likely regular season is 8-1. 99% of outcomes land from 7-2 to 8-1.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 15%; 8 wins 84%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor8-4Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base10-2Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling11-1Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-1
Game feel60even gamescombined pts / game2nd highest-scoring of 5 in the Southern Collegiate Athletic
Heart rate1-0some dramain one-score games (1 of 6)4th most one-score games of 5 in the Southern Collegiate Athletic
Margin+13.5comfortableavg scoring margin1st best margin of 5 in the Southern Collegiate Athletic
Home crowd500avg attendance1st biggest crowds of 1 in the Southern Collegiate Athletic
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Southern Collegiate Athletic teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Texas Lutheran is a small Texas Lutheran school with NAIA championship pedigree—elite in the conference, frustrated by one bad quarter that cost the 2025 SCAC championship, but positioned to climb back.
Title DroughtSince 2024 · 2 yrs
Fans here believe texas Lutheran's identity is about being one of the SCAC elite, and the 2025 loss burns because the program knows it belongs. This is not rebuilding; this is interruption. 2026 is…
Game day
The experience
Texas Lutheran is a small Texas Lutheran school with NAIA championship pedigree—elite in the conference, frustrated by one bad quarter that cost the 2025 SCAC championship, but positioned to climb back.
Playoff path
Texas Lutheran University sits 1st in the Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference and 54th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — on the at-large bubble — the conference title is the surer route.
Southern Collegiate Athletic · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Lutheran | 2-0 | 5-1 | 60.9 |
| 2 | Centenary (LA) | 2-0 | 2-4 | 41.5 |
| 3 | Lyon | 1-1 | 2-4 | 43.5 |
| 4 | Austin | 0-4 | 1-6 | 33.1 |
| 5 | Gallaudet | 0-0 | 0-5 | 25.3 |
60.9 CFB Zeitgeist#54 of 245 D348.3 strength of schedule1 quality win
Win the Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 5-1
Signature win 34-0 over Hendrix; toughest day 14-36 against Trinity (TX).
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site