CFB Zeitgeist
June 22, 2026 · Dead Period · Heritage Window · 2026 Outlook

Howard Payne University

4-6 2025 final

Howard Payne is the Brownwood, Texas Baptist college competing in Division III, navigating a transition year after coaching change with local pride intact.

Quiet weeks in Yellow Jackets country.

Record
4-6
win% .400
Conference
3rd of 4
American Southwest · 2-4
Index Rating
50.7
D3 #117 of 240
Playoff Path
Win the league
Dead PeriodOffseasonPatientPost-loss — diagnostic
The Long Wait·Offseason

Howard Payne is the Brownwood, Texas Baptist college competing in Division III, navigating a transition year after coaching change with local pride intact.

Title DroughtSince 2020 · 5 yrs

Howard Payne went 4-6 in 2025 (2-4 ASC) under first-year head coach Coby Gipson. The Yellow Jackets are navigating a coaching transition and rebuilding. The 2025 season was challenging, but the question in Brownwood is whether Gip…

low signal
Read the full program story ↓

Offseason

69 days

until kickoff · Sun Aug 30 · 17:00 UTC

Act I

The 2026 Outlook

DIVISION III · THE PATH TO THE STAGG BOWL

Howard Payne University sits 3rd in the American Southwest Conference and 117th of 240 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.

American Southwest · 2025
TeamConfOverallIndex
1Hardin-Simmons5-19-265.2
2Mary Hardin-Baylor5-17-361.5
3Howard Payne2-44-650.7
4East Texas Baptist University0-64-645.6
50.7 CFB Zeitgeist#117 of 240 D354.5 strength of schedule

Win the American Southwest Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.

Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2025 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
THE 2025 SEASON · 4-6
W 21-13 vs Pacific (OR) · Wk 2+8Pacific W 28-18 at Texas Lutheran · Wk 3+10Texas LuL 18-21 vs Wayland Baptist · Wk 4-3Wayland L 24-31 at McMurry · Wk 5-7McMurryL 14-69 at Hardin-Simmons · Wk 6-55Hardin-SW 36-18 vs East Texas Baptist University · Wk 7+18East TexL 17-41 at Mary Hardin-Baylor · Wk 9-24Mary HarL 24-54 vs Hardin-Simmons · Wk 10-30Hardin-SW 34-27 at East Texas Baptist University · Wk 11+7East TexL 9-65 vs Mary Hardin-Baylor · Wk 12-56Mary Har

Signature win 36-18 over East Texas Baptist University; toughest day 9-65 against Mary Hardin-Baylor.

The Pulse on Howard Payne University

Quiet · dead period heritage · signal ramps back in camp
Quiet weeks in Yellow Jackets country.

What moved it — offseason · last 30 days

June Dead-period quiet — official-visit + heritage window
Camp Fall camp ~40 days out
"Go Howard Payne" — Howard Payne University fanbase · recurring line
0 mentions · awaiting signal

Aspiration Ladder

Brief Part III §33.4 · Howard Payne University

Winning record

The baseline for a successful season.

Conference title

The primary goal and national bracket path.

32-team bracket qualifierLocked

One of 32 national tournament entries.

Stagg BowlLocked

The Division III national championship game.

Howard Payne University · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor2-10Rebuild year. Below .500.
base4-8Mid-table finish.
ceiling7-5Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.

Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.

Act II

Who We Are

Home-Field Advantage · Howard Payne University · 2018-present

Strong

52% home win rate vs 35% on the road. margin runs +11.3 better at home.

Home10-9Away6-11
Act III

Last Season Reviewed

2025 season · tap to expand

Recent Form · last 10 games

Cooling

Two of five. Schedule has caught up.

Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 4-6

Schedule Strength · Howard Payne University · 2025

Hard

Average opponent win rate 63% across 7 finalized games. Strong conference slate — wins here carry full weight in Super Region selection.

Opp Win %0.631

Moment of the Year · Howard Payne University · 2025

Won 36-18 vs East Texas Baptist University

Week 7 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.

Decisive Margin

From the Archive — Howard Payne University

2024: Lost 27-29 at Southwestern Assemblies Of God

In 2024, the program lost 27-29 at Southwestern Assemblies Of God — a close road result, 2 points either way.

Go Yellow Jackets.