Next game
vs Claremont Mudd Scripps
Sat Oct 24 · 10 pm ET
Ernie Chapman Stadium · series 5-1, won the last 5
Chapman University 79% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Chapman University
5-1So. Cal. · Ernie Chapman Stadium · 2,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 26-3 at Azusa Pacific
Our model gave Chapman University 96% before kickoff
The rest of the season
One real test left: Cal Lutheran 65%
Win out 41% · expect 2.2 of 3 more wins
Chapman University's chance to win each game left, from our model: Claremont Mudd Scripps 79%, Pomona Pitzer 80%, Cal Lutheran 65%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Claremont Mudd Scripps · our model 79% Chapman University
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Chapman University · 2026 schedule and results5-1Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 47%.Our rank entering each game: #482 to #448
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #482 | #428 | — | @Hardin Simmons | L 24-44 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 3 | Sep 19 | #477 | #437 | — | Linfield | W 24-21 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #472 | #603 | — | La Verne | W 35-10 | 2-1 | 1-0 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #473 | #563 | — | Whittier | W 57-10 | 3-1 | 2-0 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #455 | #575 | — | @Redlands | W 36-14 | 4-1 | 3-0 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #448 | #627 | — | @Azusa Pacific | W 26-3 | 5-1 | 4-0 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #440 | #523 | Claremont Mudd Scripps | 10 pm ET79% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #439 | #529 | Pomona Pitzer | 4 pm ET80% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Cal Lutheran | 10 pm ET65% to win | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Chapman University, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Chapman University: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Chapman University has won five straight.
8-2 over the last 10, and won the last five.
Streak W5Last 5 · 5-0Last 10 · 8-2
Range of outcomes · Chapman University · 2026
Range of outcomes · Chapman University · 2026Chapman University’s most likely regular season is 7-2. 99% of outcomes land from 6-3 to 8-1.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 1%; 6 wins 14%; 7 wins 43%; 8 wins 41%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor8-4Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base10-2Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling11-1Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-1
Game feel51shootoutscombined pts / game2nd highest-scoring of 8 in the So. Cal.
Heart rate1-0some dramain one-score games (1 of 6)3rd most one-score games of 8 in the So. Cal.
Margin+16.7comfortableavg scoring margin1st best margin of 8 in the So. Cal.
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among So. Cal. teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Chapman is an Orange County university whose football team has won five SCIAC titles — the Panthers are proving small-school prestige can build hardware.
Title DroughtSince 2025 · 1 yrs
Fans here believe no chip — Chapman's story is about rising, not resenting.
Game day
The experience
Chapman is an Orange County university whose football team has won five SCIAC titles — the Panthers are proving small-school prestige can build hardware.
Playoff path
Chapman University sits 1st in the So. Cal. Conference and 43rd of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — on the at-large bubble — the conference title is the surer route.
So. Cal. · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chapman | 4-0 | 5-1 | 62.6 |
| 2 | Claremont Mudd Scripps | 4-0 | 5-1 | 60.0 |
| 3 | Pomona Pitzer | 3-1 | 4-2 | 55.4 |
| 4 | Cal Lutheran | 2-2 | 3-3 | 47.6 |
| 5 | Redlands | 2-2 | 2-4 | 43.5 |
| 6 | La Verne | 1-4 | 2-4 | 43.0 |
| 7 | Azusa Pacific | 1-4 | 1-4 | 34.8 |
| 8 | Whittier | 0-4 | 1-5 | 32.0 |
62.6 CFB Zeitgeist#43 of 245 D348.6 strength of schedule1 quality win
Win the So. Cal. Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 5-1
Signature win 57-10 over Whittier; toughest day 24-44 against Hardin Simmons.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site