Next game
at Pomona Pitzer
Sat Oct 24 · 10 pm ET
Merritt Field
Azusa Pacific 6% to win · our ratings after 5 games
Azusa Pacific
1-4So. Cal. · Citrus Stadium · 10,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 3-26 vs Chapman
Our model gave Azusa Pacific 4% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Claremont Mudd Scripps 6%, Pomona Pitzer 6%, La Verne 36%
Win out <1% · expect 0.5 of 3 more wins
Azusa Pacific's chance to win each game left, from our model: Pomona Pitzer 6%, La Verne 36%, Claremont Mudd Scripps 6%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Pomona Pitzer · our model 6% Azusa Pacific
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Azusa Pacific · 2026 schedule and results1-4Our rank entering each game: #556 to #627
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #556 | #631 | — | @La Verne | L 3-30 | 0-1 | 0-1 | |
| 2 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 3 | Sep 19 | #569 | #531 | — | Whittier | W 35-17 | 1-1 | 1-1 | |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #566 | #609 | — | Redlands | L 9-44 | 1-2 | 1-2 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #615 | #550 | — | @Cal Lutheran | L 3-24 | 1-3 | 1-3 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #627 | #448 | — | Chapman | L 3-26 | 1-4 | 1-4 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #629 | #529 | @Pomona Pitzer | 10 pm ET6% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #629 | #606 | La Verne | 9 pm ET36% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Claremont Mudd Scripps | 8 pm ET6% to win | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Azusa Pacific, through 5 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Azusa Pacific: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Azusa Pacific has won one of its last five.
2-8 over the last 10, and lost the last three.
Streak L3Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 2-8
Range of outcomes · Azusa Pacific · 2026
Range of outcomes · Azusa Pacific · 2026Azusa Pacific’s most likely regular season is 1-7. 96% of outcomes land from 1-7 to 2-6.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
1 wins 57%; 2 wins 39%; 3 wins 4%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor1-11Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base2-10Mid-table finish.
Ceiling5-7Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 5 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 1-4
Game feel39rock fightscombined pts / game8th highest-scoring of 8 in the So. Cal.
Heart rate0-0some dramain one-score games (0 of 5)6th most one-score games of 8 in the So. Cal.
Margin-17.6outgunnedavg scoring margin7th best margin of 8 in the So. Cal.
Measured from 5 games · ranks are among So. Cal. teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Azusa Pacific is a small Christian university in the foothills that's bringing football home again — returning to the field after years away, with the faith that it belongs.
Standard GapA mission-driven small school reclaiming an athletic identity…
Fans here believe no chip — instead a clean slate. Azusa's story is about restoration, not resentment.
Game day
The experience
Azusa Pacific is a small Christian university in the foothills that's bringing football home again — returning to the field after years away, with the faith that it belongs.
Playoff path
Azusa Pacific sits 7th in the So. Cal. Conference and 220th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
So. Cal. · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chapman | 4-0 | 5-1 | 62.6 |
| 2 | Claremont Mudd Scripps | 4-0 | 5-1 | 60.0 |
| 3 | Pomona Pitzer | 3-1 | 4-2 | 55.4 |
| 4 | Cal Lutheran | 2-2 | 3-3 | 47.6 |
| 5 | Redlands | 2-2 | 2-4 | 43.5 |
| 6 | La Verne | 1-4 | 2-4 | 43.0 |
| 7 | Azusa Pacific | 1-4 | 1-4 | 34.8 |
| 8 | Whittier | 0-4 | 1-5 | 32.0 |
34.8 CFB Zeitgeist#220 of 245 D345.7 strength of schedule
Win the So. Cal. Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 1-4
Signature win 35-17 over Whittier; toughest day 9-44 against Redlands.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site