Next game
at La Verne
Sat Oct 24 · 7 pm ET
Ortmayer Stadium · series 4-2, won the last 4
California Lutheran University 82% to win · our ratings after 6 games
California Lutheran University
3-3So. Cal. · William Rolland Stadium · 2,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 13-14 vs Pomona Pitzer
Our model gave California Lutheran University 63% before kickoff
The rest of the season
One real test left: Chapman 35%
Win out 26% · expect 2.1 of 3 more wins
California Lutheran University's chance to win each game left, from our model: La Verne 82%, Whittier 93%, Chapman 35%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at La Verne · our model 82% California Lutheran University
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
California Lutheran University · 2026 schedule and results3-3Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 48%.Our rank entering each game: #578 to #543
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #578 | #471 | — | @Pacific Lutheran | L 30-37 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 3 | Sep 19 | #570 | #663 | — | Puget Sound | W 41-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #568 | #589 | — | Redlands | W 40-14 | 2-1 | 1-0 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #554 | #540 | — | @Claremont Mudd Scripps | L 22-24 | 2-2 | 1-1 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #550 | #615 | — | Azusa Pacific | W 24-3 | 3-2 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #543 | #529 | — | Pomona Pitzer | L 13-14 | 3-3 | 2-2 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #535 | #606 | @La Verne | 7 pm ET82% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #535 | #664 | @Whittier | 4 pm ET93% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Chapman | 10 pm ET35% to win | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for California Lutheran University, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for California Lutheran University: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
California Lutheran University has won three of its last five.
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 4-6
Range of outcomes · California Lutheran University · 2026
Range of outcomes · California Lutheran University · 2026California Lutheran University’s most likely regular season is 5-4. 99% of outcomes land from 4-5 to 6-3.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 15%; 5 wins 58%; 6 wins 26%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor4-8Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base6-6Mid-table finish.
Ceiling9-3Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-3
Game feel45even gamescombined pts / game4th highest-scoring of 8 in the So. Cal.
Heart rate0-3white-knucklein one-score games (3 of 6)1st most one-score games of 8 in the So. Cal.
Margin+11.8comfortableavg scoring margin2nd best margin of 8 in the So. Cal.
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among So. Cal. teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
The Kingsmen of Thousand Oaks, California, who won the 1971 NAIA Division II national championship in just their first decade of football and later shared their campus with the Dallas Cowboys' training camp — a proud SCIAC program at William Rolland Stadium.
Standard GapA national-champion program from the 1970s, measured against the long…
Cal Lutheran won a national championship and hosted the Dallas Cowboys for decades, yet the Kingsmen rarely get named among small-college football's proud programs.
Game day
The experience
The Kingsmen of Thousand Oaks, California, who won the 1971 NAIA Division II national championship in just their first decade of football and later shared their campus with the Dallas Cowboys' training camp — a proud SCIAC program at William Rolland Stadium.
Playoff path
California Lutheran University sits 4th in the So. Cal. Conference and 138th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
So. Cal. · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chapman | 4-0 | 5-1 | 62.6 |
| 2 | Claremont Mudd Scripps | 4-0 | 5-1 | 60.0 |
| 3 | Pomona Pitzer | 3-1 | 4-2 | 55.4 |
| 4 | Cal Lutheran | 2-2 | 3-3 | 47.6 |
| 5 | Redlands | 2-2 | 2-4 | 43.5 |
| 6 | La Verne | 1-4 | 2-4 | 43.0 |
| 7 | Azusa Pacific | 1-4 | 1-4 | 34.8 |
| 8 | Whittier | 0-4 | 1-5 | 32.0 |
47.6 CFB Zeitgeist#138 of 245 D349.0 strength of schedule
Win the So. Cal. Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 3-3
Signature win 41-7 over Puget Sound; toughest day 30-37 against Pacific Lutheran.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site