Next game
vs Muhlenberg
Sat Oct 24 · 12 pm ET
Gesling Stadium · series 0-1
Carnegie Mellon 69% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Carnegie Mellon
4-2Presidents' · Gesling Stadium · 3,500 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 41-6 at Gettysburg
Our model gave Carnegie Mellon 82% before kickoff
The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Franklin & Marshall 42%
Win out 10% · expect 2.3 of 4 more wins
Carnegie Mellon's chance to win each game left, from our model: Muhlenberg 69%, Dickinson 64%, Franklin & Marshall 42%, Ursinus 55%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Muhlenberg · our model 69% Carnegie Mellon
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Carnegie Mellon · 2026 schedule and results4-2Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 42%.Our rank entering each game: #478 to #478
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #478 | #446 | — | John Carroll | L 7-17 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #478 | #614 | — | @Catholic | W 38-35 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #481 | #439 | — | @Berry | L 10-16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #484 | #629 | — | @McDaniel | W 52-14 | 2-2 | 0-0 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #482 | #473 | — | Johns Hopkins | W 21-0 | 3-2 | 0-0 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #478 | #622 | — | @Gettysburg | W 41-6 | 4-2 | 0-0 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #478 | #502 | Muhlenberg | 12 pm ET69% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #477 | #453 | Dickinson | 3:30 pm ET64% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Franklin & Marshall | 12 pm ET42% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Ursinus | 12 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Carnegie Mellon, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Carnegie Mellon: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Carnegie Mellon has won four of its last five.
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last three.
Streak W3Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 6-4
Range of outcomes · Carnegie Mellon · 2026
Range of outcomes · Carnegie Mellon · 2026Carnegie Mellon’s most likely regular season is 6-4. 97% of outcomes land from 5-5 to 8-2.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 3%; 5 wins 17%; 6 wins 37%; 7 wins 33%; 8 wins 10%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor6-6Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base8-4Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling10-2Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-2
Game feel43rock fightscombined pts / game13th highest-scoring of 13 in the Presidents'
Heart rate1-1some dramain one-score games (2 of 6)5th most one-score games of 13 in the Presidents'
Margin+13.5competitiveavg scoring margin5th best margin of 13 in the Presidents'
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Presidents' teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind·Written June 2026
Carnegie Mellon is an elite STEM institution where the best computer scientists happen to play football — a program that defines itself by who the athletes become, not who they beat.
Title DroughtSince 2022 · 4 yrs
Fans here believe no chip; CMU's identity is orthogonal to disrespect. The program exists for the intellectual development of world-class engineers who happen to wear football uniforms.
Game day
The experience
Carnegie Mellon is an elite STEM institution where the best computer scientists happen to play football — a program that defines itself by who the athletes become, not who they beat.
Playoff path
Carnegie Mellon sits 11th in the Presidents’ Conference and 74th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
Presidents' · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington & Jefferson | 4-0 | 5-1 | 65.9 |
| 2 | Grove City | 4-0 | 4-2 | 57.8 |
| 3 | Case Western Reserve | 3-1 | 5-1 | 61.3 |
| 4 | Allegheny | 3-1 | 5-1 | 59.3 |
| 5 | Hiram | 2-2 | 4-2 | 51.3 |
| 6 | Geneva | 2-2 | 3-3 | 50.0 |
| 7 | Westminster (PA) | 2-2 | 2-4 | 46.5 |
| 11 | Carnegie Mellon | 0-0 | 4-2 | 57.5 |
57.5 CFB Zeitgeist#74 of 245 D349.2 strength of schedule
Win the Presidents' Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 4-2
Signature win 52-14 over McDaniel; toughest day 7-17 against John Carroll.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site