Next game
at Franklin & Marshall
Sat Oct 24 · 1 pm ET
Shadek Stadium · series 2-2-1, last win 2024
Ursinus 42% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Ursinus
6-0Centennial · Patterson Field · 2,500 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 35-14 vs Johns Hopkins
Our model gave Ursinus 85% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Franklin & Marshall 42%, Carnegie Mellon 45%, Dickinson 64%
Win out 12% · expect 2.5 of 4 more wins
Ursinus's chance to win each game left, from our model: Franklin & Marshall 42%, Gettysburg 96%, Dickinson 64%, Carnegie Mellon 45%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Franklin & Marshall · our model 42% Ursinus
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Ursinus · 2026 schedule and results6-0Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 34%.Our rank entering each game: #508 to #508
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 | #508 | #488 | — | Delaware Valley | W 17-14 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #511 | #595 | — | @Waynesburg | W 46-10 | 2-0 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #507 | #604 | — | Moravian | W 35-19 | 3-0 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 2 | #515 | #493 | — | Muhlenberg | W 17-7 | 4-0 | 1-0 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #513 | #637 | — | @McDaniel | W 40-14 | 5-0 | 2-0 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #508 | #496 | — | Johns Hopkins | W 35-14 | 6-0 | 3-0 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #495 | #470 | @Franklin & Marshall | 1 pm ET42% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #494 | #645 | @Gettysburg | 1 pm ET96% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Dickinson | 1 pm ET64% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Carnegie Mellon | 12 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Ursinus, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Ursinus: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Ursinus has won eight straight.
9-1 over the last 10, and won the last eight.
Streak W8Last 5 · 5-0Last 10 · 9-1
Range of outcomes · Ursinus · 2026
Range of outcomes · Ursinus · 2026Ursinus’ most likely regular season is 8-2. 100% of outcomes land from 7-3 to 10-0.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 12%; 8 wins 38%; 9 wins 37%; 10 wins 12%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor10-2Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base12-0Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling12-0Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-0
Game feel45even gamescombined pts / game5th highest-scoring of 7 in the Centennial
Heart rate1-0some dramain one-score games (1 of 6)3rd most one-score games of 7 in the Centennial
Margin+18.7comfortableavg scoring margin1st best margin of 7 in the Centennial
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Centennial teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind·Written June 2026
Ursinus went 25 years without making an NCAA tournament (1999–2024) until Peter Gallagher's patience finally paid off with a 9–1 breakthrough season in his 25th year as head coach.
Title DroughtSince 1999 · 27 yrs
Fans here believe the chip is the drought itself—the program was talented enough to make tournaments but couldn't quite break through for 25 years. 2024 is the proof it belonged all along.
Game day
The experience
Ursinus went 25 years without making an NCAA tournament (1999–2024) until Peter Gallagher's patience finally paid off with a 9–1 breakthrough season in his 25th year as head coach.
Playoff path
Ursinus sits 1st in the Centennial Conference and 16th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — in the projected field with a seedable rating.
Centennial · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ursinus | 3-0 | 6-0 | 68.2 |
| 2 | Dickinson | 2-1 | 4-2 | 62.3 |
| 3 | Franklin & Marshall | 2-1 | 5-1 | 61.5 |
| 4 | Muhlenberg | 2-1 | 4-2 | 59.0 |
| 5 | Johns Hopkins | 1-2 | 2-5 | 46.0 |
| 6 | Gettysburg | 0-3 | 2-5 | 42.6 |
| 7 | McDaniel | 0-2 | 1-5 | 38.6 |
68.2 CFB Zeitgeist#16 of 245 D346.0 strength of schedule2 quality wins
Win the Centennial Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 6-0
Signature win 46-10 over Waynesburg; toughest day 17-14 against Delaware Valley.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site