Next game
at Carnegie Mellon
Sat Oct 24 · 12 pm ET
Gesling Stadium · series 1-0
Muhlenberg 31% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Muhlenberg
4-2Centennial · Scotty Wood Stadium · 3,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
W 49-7 vs McDaniel
Our model gave Muhlenberg 96% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Carnegie Mellon 31%, Dickinson 38%, Johns Hopkins 65%
Win out 7% · expect 2.3 of 4 more wins
Muhlenberg's chance to win each game left, from our model: Carnegie Mellon 31%, Johns Hopkins 65%, Gettysburg 95%, Dickinson 38%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line at Carnegie Mellon · our model 31% Muhlenberg
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Muhlenberg · 2026 schedule and results4-2Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 60%.Our rank entering each game: #493 to #503
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #493 | #594 | — | @Moravian | W 34-7 | 1-0 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #491 | #434 | — | Endicott | L 21-49 | 1-1 | 0-0 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #493 | #510 | — | Wilkes | W 41-27 | 2-1 | 0-0 | |
| 4 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 5 | Oct 2 | #493 | #515 | — | @Ursinus | L 7-17 | 2-2 | 0-1 | |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #502 | #490 | — | Franklin & Marshall | W 31-28 | 3-2 | 1-1 | |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #503 | #639 | — | McDaniel | W 49-7 | 4-2 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #502 | #478 | @Carnegie Mellon | 12 pm ET31% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #502 | #501 | @Johns Hopkins | 1 pm ET65% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Gettysburg | 1 pm ET95% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Dickinson | 1 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Muhlenberg, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Muhlenberg: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Muhlenberg has won three of its last five.
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Streak W2Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 7-3
Range of outcomes · Muhlenberg · 2026
Range of outcomes · Muhlenberg · 2026Muhlenberg’s most likely regular season is 6-4. 92% of outcomes land from 5-5 to 7-3.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 17%; 6 wins 43%; 7 wins 32%; 8 wins 7%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor6-6Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
Base8-4Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
Ceiling10-2Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-2
Game feel53shootoutscombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 7 in the Centennial
Heart rate1-0some dramain one-score games (1 of 6)4th most one-score games of 7 in the Centennial
Margin+8.0competitiveavg scoring margin3rd best margin of 7 in the Centennial
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among Centennial teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind·Written June 2026
Muhlenberg went from mid-pack to playoff regular under Nate Milne—a program that discovered it could win big and now believes it belongs in the national tournament every year.
Title DroughtSince 2004 · 22 yrs
Fans here believe no external chip; Muhlenberg's drive is internal—reclaiming the 2000–2004 era when the program was untouchable.
Game day
The experience
Muhlenberg went from mid-pack to playoff regular under Nate Milne—a program that discovered it could win big and now believes it belongs in the national tournament every year.
Playoff path
Muhlenberg sits 4th in the Centennial Conference and 64th of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — on the at-large bubble — the conference title is the surer route.
Centennial · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ursinus | 3-0 | 6-0 | 68.2 |
| 2 | Dickinson | 2-1 | 4-2 | 62.3 |
| 3 | Franklin & Marshall | 2-1 | 5-1 | 61.5 |
| 4 | Muhlenberg | 2-1 | 4-2 | 59.0 |
| 5 | Johns Hopkins | 1-2 | 2-5 | 46.0 |
| 6 | Gettysburg | 0-3 | 2-5 | 42.6 |
| 7 | McDaniel | 0-2 | 1-5 | 38.6 |
59.0 CFB Zeitgeist#64 of 245 D355.5 strength of schedule1 quality win
Win the Centennial Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 4-2
Signature win 49-7 over McDaniel; toughest day 21-49 against Endicott.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site