Next game
vs Ohio Wesleyan
Sat Oct 24 · 12 pm ET
Austin E. Knowlton Athletics Complex · series 0-4, lost the last 4
Oberlin College 8% to win · our ratings after 6 games
Oberlin College
0-6North Coast · Austin E. Knowlton Athletics Complex · 3,000 seats
Last game · Sat Oct 17
L 20-79 at Wooster
Our model gave Oberlin College 24% before kickoff
The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: Kenyon 14%
Win out <1% · expect 0.4 of 4 more wins
Oberlin College's chance to win each game left, from our model: Ohio Wesleyan 8%, Kenyon 14%, John Carroll 1%, Wittenberg 14%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The marketno line yetBetting line vs Ohio Wesleyan · our model 8% Oberlin College
Updated Sat Oct 24 · through week 7
Schedule and results
Oberlin College · 2026 schedule and results0-6Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 69%.Our rank entering each game: #645 to #640
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #645 | #620 | — | Hiram | L 2-33 | 0-1 | 0-0 | |
| 2 | Sep 10 | #652 | #495 | — | @Denison | L 0-50 | 0-2 | 0-1 | |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #652 | #472 | — | Wabash | L 7-34 | 0-3 | 0-2 | |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #652 | #478 | — | Washington St. Louis | L 0-79 | 0-4 | 0-3 | |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #652 | #450 | — | @DePauw | L 7-68 | 0-5 | 0-4 | |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #640 | #585 | — | @Wooster | L 20-79 | 0-6 | 0-5 | |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #645 | #537 | Ohio Wesleyan | 12 pm ET8% to win | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #643 | #594 | @Kenyon | 1 pm ET14% to win | ||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | John Carroll | 12 pm ET1% to win | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Wittenberg | 1 pm ET | ||||||
How to read this table
Win chances are our model for Oberlin College, through 6 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
Line is the closing point spread for Oberlin College: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
Ahead
The forecast
The games that decide the season
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
Oberlin College has lost ten straight.
0-10 over the last 10, and lost the last ten.
Streak L10Last 5 · 0-5Last 10 · 0-10
Range of outcomes · Oberlin College · 2026
Range of outcomes · Oberlin College · 2026Oberlin College’s most likely regular season is 0-10. 96% of outcomes land from 0-10 to 1-9.
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
0 wins 68%; 1 wins 28%; 2 wins 4%What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor0-12Rebuild year. Below .500.
Base0-12Mid-table finish.
Ceiling3-9Conference title race. Bracket qualifier in range.
Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 6 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
Worth watching
What it is like to watch them2026 · 0-6
Game feel63even gamescombined pts / game3rd highest-scoring of 9 in the North Coast
Heart rate0-0rarely closein one-score games (0 of 6)9th most one-score games of 9 in the North Coast
Margin-51.2outgunnedavg scoring margin9th best margin of 9 in the North Coast
Measured from 6 games · ranks are among North Coast teams the same season
Team story
The weekly grind
Oberlin is the program that John Heisman coached (7-0 in 1892), then disappeared into a lost century, a Yeomen rebuild that measures success not by records but by presence and persistence.
Standard GapA historic D3 institution with a John Heisman-coached undefeated…
Fans here believe there is no chip. Oberlin football is past grievance and into pure survival mode. The program needs to remember how to win.
Game day
The experience
Oberlin is the program that John Heisman coached (7-0 in 1892), then disappeared into a lost century, a Yeomen rebuild that measures success not by records but by presence and persistence.
Playoff path
Oberlin College sits 8th in the North Coast Conference and 222nd of 245 in the CFB Zeitgeist — outside the at-large picture — the path runs through the conference title.
North Coast · 2026
| Team | Conf | Overall | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington St. Louis | 4-0 | 6-0 | 71.1 |
| 2 | DePauw | 4-1 | 5-1 | 64.5 |
| 3 | Denison | 4-1 | 4-2 | 57.4 |
| 4 | Wabash | 3-1 | 4-2 | 56.1 |
| 5 | Ohio Wesleyan | 2-2 | 3-3 | 49.1 |
| 6 | Wooster | 2-3 | 2-4 | 41.8 |
| 7 | Kenyon | 1-3 | 2-4 | 46.3 |
| 8 | Oberlin | 0-5 | 0-6 | 34.4 |
34.4 CFB Zeitgeist#222 of 245 D357.0 strength of schedule
Win the North Coast Conference for the automatic berth into the 40-team NCAA Division III bracket. Miss it and the path is an at-large bid, selected by NPI — the metric the CFB Index mirrors. Six wins survive the bracket to the Stagg Bowl.
Source: CFB Zeitgeist — conference records + NPI-style rating from 2026 games · the field is 40 teams, NPI-selected
The 2026 season · 0-6
Signature win 7-34 over Wabash; toughest day 0-79 against Washington St. Louis.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site