Michigan State
2-0Big Ten · Pat Fitzgerald, year 1 (2-0) · Spartan Stadium · 75,005 · 71,397 avg in 2026
LastW 35–7 vs Eastern Michigan · Sat Sep 12 · Camryn Edwards 152 rush yds, 2 TD, 5 rec yds
Nextat Notre Dame · Sat Sep 19 · 7:30 pm ET · Notre Dame Stadium · Notre Dame by 30 · series 28-44-1, last win 2016 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
All 79 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.45 EPA/play | 11 | 2 | 38 / 54 | 70.4 | 417 #70 FBS | 7.7 | 3 #60 FBS | 0 | 153.6 | 53 | 86.2 | 7.6 | 8.5 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.11 EPA/play | — | 2 | 48 | 250 #7 FBS | 5.2 | 3 #11 FBS | 40 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 6 of 15 classified this way. Played in 2 of 3 games this season · senior View Camryn Edwards's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.59 EPA/play | 3 | 2 | 10 | 116 | 11.6 | 1 | 26 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.60 EPA/play | 31 | 2 | 8 | 99 | 12.4 | 0 | 46 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 17 of 21 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception12.6 57th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume8 bottom 12th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jayden Savoury's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.56 EPA/play | 13 | 2 | 10 | 79 | 7.9 | 0 | 20 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 3 #30 FBS | 3 #5 FBS | 2 |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 #22 FBS | |
| 44 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 21 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2.5 | 1 | |
| 19 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 2 | 5/6 | 83.3 | 6/6 | 21 | 51 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.56 EPA/play | 13 | 2 | 4 | 61 | 15.3 | 0 | 31 |
2026 stat leaders · Michigan State
through 2 games
2026 stat leaders · Michigan StateCamryn Edwards leads Michigan State with 250 rushing yards through 2 games.
How They Play · 2025Michigan State fields a limited methodical, ball-control offense behind a porous, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Michigan State reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 27%) and success rate (top 52%); the crux lives in success rate allowed, where Michigan State sits at the 15th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · Michigan State · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Michigan State is worth +2.6 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom third of FBS, 24th percentile of 133 programs
56% at home, 33% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (27–21 home, 13–26 away). Interval ±4.1.
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Michigan State has beaten the number by 8.0 points less at home than away over 71 games — outside the ±5.8 that many games can resolve. This is one of the few buildings where the results say something the flat number does not.
Spartan Stadium seats 75,005 and has averaged 91% full (68,600, 26 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 267 miles trip since 2018, the 20th-shortest of 135 FBS venues. There is no travel penalty on visitors here either way. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 30% of the 2026 roster (33 of 110 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 52 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
Scheme claims
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Michigan State's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 68th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 30th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Michigan State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
62nd percentile success on standard downs, 29th on passing downs — a 33-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| App State | 44th | 90th |
| Arizona | 92nd | 86th |
| Arkansas | 60th | 80th |
| Auburn | 75th | 55th |
| Ball State | 12th | 24th |
| Baylor | 40th | 96th |
| Boise State | 58th | 46th |
| Boston College | 27th | 56th |
| Buffalo | 7th | 14th |
| California | 9th | 25th |
| Central Michigan | 16th | 6th |
| Charlotte | 73rd | 83rd |
| Clemson | 1st | 19th |
| Coastal Carolina | 61st | 52nd |
| Colorado | 35th | 77th |
| Colorado State | 82nd | 91st |
| Delaware | 70th | 31st |
| Duke | 20th | 29th |
| Eastern Michigan | 52nd | 10th |
| Florida Atlantic | 43rd | 87th |
| Florida International | 46th | 43rd |
| Florida State | 28th | 65th |
| Georgia Southern | 24th | 45th |
| Georgia Tech | 58th | 44th |
| Hawai'i | 18th | 41st |
| Iowa State | 4th | 23rd |
| Jacksonville State | 65th | 82nd |
| Kansas | 70th | 35th |
| LSU | 33rd | 98th |
| Liberty | 14th | 59th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 92nd |
| Louisville | 96th | 70th |
| Memphis | 69th | 65th |
| Michigan | 2nd | 62nd |
| Michigan State | 62nd | 29th |
| Middle Tennessee | 87th | 68th |
| Missouri | 36th | 85th |
| Navy | 98th | 59th |
| Nevada | 77th | 52nd |
| New Mexico State | 45th | 75th |
| Norfolk State | 16th | 9th |
| North Dakota State | 86th | 27th |
| North Texas | 49th | 68th |
| Ohio | 38th | 17th |
| Ohio State | 90th | 40th |
| Oklahoma State | 41st | 49th |
| Ole Miss | 94th | 50th |
| Oregon | 35th | 33rd |
| Oregon State | 10th | 38th |
| Pittsburgh | 30th | 76th |
| Purdue | 83rd | 88th |
| Rutgers | 30th | 71st |
| Sacramento State | 23rd | 14th |
| Sam Houston | 78th | 61st |
| San Diego State | 4th | 40th |
| San José State | 54th | 22nd |
| South Alabama | 50th | 73rd |
| South Florida | 91st | 52nd |
| Stanford | 76th | 15th |
| Syracuse | 48th | 64th |
| TCU | 93rd | 8th |
| Tennessee | 65th | 78th |
| Texas | 72nd | 94th |
| Texas A&M | 85th | 72nd |
| Texas Tech | 88th | 48th |
| Troy | 22nd | 59th |
| Tulane | 31st | 2nd |
| Tulsa | 56th | 1st |
| UAB | 65th | 81st |
| UNLV | 51st | 7th |
| USC | 97th | 99th |
| UTSA | 99th | 29th |
| Utah State | 4th | 93rd |
| Vanderbilt | 80th | 12th |
| Wake Forest | 56th | 97th |
| Washington | 81st | 4th |
| Washington State | 8th | 3rd |
| Western Kentucky | 25th | 34th |
| Western Michigan | 39th | 20th |
| Wisconsin | 13th | 18th |
| Wyoming | 65th | 36th |
Halftime identity
Michigan State by half
1st-half offense ranks 20th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 52nd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Michigan State
Most similar programs · Michigan StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Historical echo
Michigan State’s slide has precedent — and 1 of the 4 closest kept falling.
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Conditions
58°F average kickoff temp; 11% of games had measurable precipitation; 10 mph average wind.
Based on 80 home games with weather data.