Regular season ·

Northwestern beat Penn State

Northwestern4-222
Penn State3-321Final
Sat, Oct 11 · Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pa. · Crowd 108,121 · 65°, fairFS1

Records are after this game.

Northwestern beat Penn State by 1 point.

How the game turned

Northwestern aheadPenn State aheadBiggest swingLow: 4%
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Q4 (no clock) Northwestern 22, Penn State 21

Northwestern 54% to win

Grunkemeyer run for no gain, turnover on downs

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 2:51 · Northwestern 3, Penn State 0Northwestern's win chance rose from 11% to 15%.Olsen 27-yd field goal, Northwestern goes ahead 3-0
  2. 2Q2 7:14 · Northwestern 10, Penn State 7Northwestern's win chance rose from 8% to 16%.Stone 29-yd TD pass to Wilde, Northwestern goes ahead 10-7
  3. 3Q2 1:19 · Northwestern 10, Penn State 14Northwestern's win chance fell from 16% to 8%.Singleton 2-yd TD run, Penn State goes ahead 14-10
  4. 4Q4 10:50 · Northwestern 16, Penn State 21Northwestern's win chance fell from 19% to 13%.Allar 1-yd TD run, Penn State goes ahead 21-16
  5. 5Q4 4:51 · Northwestern 22, Penn State 21Northwestern's win chance rose from 18% to 26%.Komolafe 9-yd TD run, two-point try fails, Northwestern goes ahead 22-21
  6. 6Q4 (no clock) · Northwestern 22, Penn State 21Northwestern's win chance rose from 31% to 54%.Grunkemeyer run for no gain, turnover on downs

Northwestern's lowest chance to win was 4 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

In the 4th quarter, Northwestern's chance to win went from 31 percent to 54 percent on a failed fourth down.

The score stayed Northwestern 22, Penn State 21.

The play: Penn State on 4th down, Grunkemeyer run for no gain.

It was Northwestern's first win over Penn State since the 2015 season, after 3 straight losses in the series, counted since 1970 in our games data.

What happened next

  1. Northwestern's next game: W 19-0 vs Purdue, Oct 18

    7 days later

  2. Penn State's next game: L 24-25 at Iowa, Oct 18

    7 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Oct 11, 2025: Northwestern 34, Penn State 13, Oct 2, 2026

    about 12 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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