Northwestern

1-0

Big Ten · David Braun, year 4 (20-19) · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium · 12,023 · 9,574 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#11 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #40 (+7.8) · FPI #57
The marketNorthwestern by 3.5vs Colorado · our model 91% Northwestern · a number, not a pick

LastW 34–18 vs South Dakota State · Sat Sep 5 · Aidan Chiles 273 pass yds, 1 TD, 18 rush yds

Nextvs Colorado · Sat Sep 19 · 7:30 pm ET · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium · Northwestern by 3.5 · series 1-1, last win 1951 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 1

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
34.0
Pts allowed/game
18.0
Total yards/gm#133 / 138 · 4th pct
497.0
Rush yards/gm#120 / 138 · 13th pct
224.0
Pass yards/gm#128 / 138 · 8th pct
273.0
Yards allowed/gm#16 / 138 · 89th pct
432.0
Rush yds allowed/gm#20 / 138 · 86th pct
147.0
SacksT-#106 / 138 · 16th pct
2
InterceptionsT-#63 / 115 · 23rd pct
1
3rd-down convT-#68 / 138 · 51st pct
41.7%
All 60 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
4974979.04/play#133 / 138 · 4th pct#68 / 69 · 2nd pct#18 / 18 · 3rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4324324.91/play#16 / 138 · 89th pct#15 / 69 · 79th pct#5 / 18 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
2242244.07/play#120 / 138 · 13th pct#62 / 69 · 11th pct#15 / 18 · 19th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
1471471.67/play#20 / 138 · 86th pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#3 / 18 · 86th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
3131#138 / 138 · 1st pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#18 / 18 · 3rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4040#1 / 138 · 99th pct#1 / 69 · 99th pct#1 / 18 · 97th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
33T-#77 / 138 · 34th pctT-#45 / 69 · 28th pctT-#10 / 18 · 39th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
11T-#24 / 138 · 73rd pctT-#18 / 69 · 64th pctT-#4 / 18 · 67th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
2732734.96/play#128 / 138 · 8th pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#18 / 18 · 3rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2852853.24/play#27 / 138 · 81st pct#22 / 69 · 69th pct#7 / 18 · 64th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
2424T-#135 / 138 · 2nd pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#18 / 18 · 3rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4848T-#22 / 138 · 84th pctT-#12 / 69 · 82nd pctT-#5 / 18 · 72nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
1414#135 / 138 · 3rd pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#18 / 18 · 3rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2323T-#8 / 138 · 94th pctT-#6 / 69 · 91st pctT-#2 / 18 · 89th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
11T-#114 / 138 · 11th pctT-#60 / 69 · 8th pctT-#14 / 18 · 17th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
00T-#1 / 138 · 96th pctT-#1 / 69 · 93rd pctT-#1 / 18 · 92nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating#37 / 115 · 68th pct#25 / 59 · 58th pct#8 / 16 · 53rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
159.3159.3
Interceptions thrown
Team
00T-#92 / 138 · 17th pctT-#42 / 69 · 20th pctT-#10 / 18 · 25th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
11T-#24 / 138 · 64th pctT-#11 / 69 · 64th pctT-#3 / 18 · 69th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
22T-#106 / 138 · 16th pctT-#61 / 69 · 8th pctT-#14 / 18 · 17th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
22T-#33 / 138 · 67th pctT-#20 / 69 · 62nd pctT-#4 / 18 · 64th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
33#138 / 138 · 1st pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#18 / 18 · 3rd pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
33T-#3 / 138 · 97th pctT-#2 / 69 · 95th pctT-#1 / 18 · 94th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
1919#138 / 138 · 1st pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#18 / 18 · 3rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2727T-#26 / 138 · 79th pctT-#23 / 69 · 64th pct#7 / 18 · 64th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
55T-#131 / 138 · 4th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#18 / 18 · 3rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
88T-#40 / 138 · 67th pctT-#27 / 69 · 56th pctT-#7 / 18 · 56th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
1212#138 / 138 · 1st pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#18 / 18 · 3rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2020T-#6 / 138 · 95th pct#2 / 69 · 98th pct#1 / 18 · 97th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
00T-#114 / 138 · 9th pctT-#52 / 69 · 13th pctT-#14 / 18 · 14th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
33T-#104 / 138 · 19th pctT-#56 / 69 · 15th pctT-#16 / 18 · 11th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
00T-#135 / 138 · 1st pctT-#66 / 69 · 3rd pct#18 / 18 · 3rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
33T-#54 / 138 · 52nd pctT-#30 / 69 · 49th pctT-#11 / 18 · 36th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
25:5225:52#138 / 138 · 1st pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#18 / 18 · 3rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
34:0834:08#1 / 138 · 99th pct#1 / 69 · 99th pct#1 / 18 · 97th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.44 EPA/play114 / 2458.327311.410167.6

2026 stat leaders · Northwestern

through 1 game

Robert Fitzgerald leads Northwestern with 14 tackles through 1 game.

1. Robert Fitzgerald DB 14 tackles
2. Kobie McKinzie LB 9 tackles
3. Damon Walters DB 9 tackles
4. Griffin Wilde WR 104 receiving yards
5. Braydon Brus LB 7 tackles
How They Play · 2025

Northwestern fields a limited methodical, ball-control offense behind a leaky, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
37th pct EPA/play
Tempo
57th pct success, 11th explosiveness
Defense
42nd pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
82nd pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Northwestern · 2025

Northwestern reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 19%) and rushing epa (top 38%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Northwestern sits at the 10th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.14
37th
Success Rate +0.43
57th
Explosive Plays +1.17
11th
Rushing EPA +0.14
63rd

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.17
42nd
Success Rate Allowed +0.45
12th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.18
82nd
Passing EPA Allowed +0.24
51st

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.19
26th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.18
14th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 13 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Northwestern · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Northwestern is worth +4.4 points more at home than on the road.

Middle of FBS, 57th percentile of 133 programs

49% at home, 34% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (18–19 home, 13–25 away). Interval ±4.3.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Northwestern has beaten the number by −4.3 more at home than away over 62 games — inside the ±7.7 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium seats 12,023. Visitors cover a median 327 miles to get here since 2018 — 45th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 28% of the 2026 roster (38 of 138 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 42 home games since 2018.

Home18–19Away13–25Edge+4.4 ±4.3Visitor trip327 mi

More in this tab

Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How Northwestern’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Defense: Tim McGarigle (2024–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 47% → 2026: 37% · 10-pt range · #94 of 203 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 45% → 2025: 36% · 9-pt range · #144 of 200 · a typical amount
4th-down go rate
2024: 23% → 2025: 37% · 14-pt range · #111 of 189 · a typical amount
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Northwestern

CFB Zeitgeist

#11

+8.4

SP+

#40

+7.8

FPI

#57

+2.5

Elo

#50

1549

The national models put Northwestern between 40th and 57th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is higher on them than any of these models, at 11th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Northwestern

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

59°F average kickoff temp; 6% of games had measurable precipitation; 11 mph average wind.

Based on 66 home games with weather data.

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