Weber State at Montana State
Weber State (5‑3) travels to Montana State (6‑1), with Montana State favored by 25.5. The model gives Montana State a 94% shot.
How they got here
Last three games
Weber State · 5-3
Rated 238th in our preseason ratings, 185th now, up 53 spots.
Three straight wins, capped by a 7-point win over Idaho State as a 4.5-point underdog.
W 27-20 vs Idaho State No. 153 of 668 teams
won by 7 as a 4.5-point underdog
L 41-44 vs Portland State No. 251 of 668 teams
lost by 3 as a 7-point favorite
W 49-20 vs Northwestern State No. 266 of 668 teams
won by 29 as a 35.5-point favorite
L 42-47 @ Southern Utah No. 149 of 668 teams
lost by 5 as a 14.5-point underdog
W 30-29 @ Northern Colorado No. 254 of 668 teams
won by 1 as a 3-point underdog
Last three games
Montana State · 6-1
Rated 84th in our preseason ratings, 71st now, up 13 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
What’s at stake
Weber State
- Weber State is 1 game back in Big Sky with 3 left to make it up.
- A win would be one of Weber State’s biggest of the season — a 114-spot gap in the power ratings.
Montana State
- Montana State is 2 games back in Big Sky with 4 left to make it up.
- Montana State is coming off a 36-point win.
The series
Montana State leads the series 14-4
18 meetings since 2004 · Montana State has won the last 5
- 2025Montana State 66-14
- 2023Montana State 40-0
- 2022Montana State 33-25
- 2022Montana State 43-38
- 2021Montana State 13-7
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Weber State
The chipWeber State carries no chip — the fanbase is focused on rebuilding from the rubble of 2025.
What this game touches
The 2025 midseason coaching collapse. Weber State went 4–8 (2–6 Big Sky) in 2025 and fired coach Mickey Mental mid-season. The Wildcats were dominant in 2017–2020 under Jay Hill (four consecutive Big Sky titles), then saw that standard evaporate over four years. The 2025 collapse and coaching change is the moment of reckoning: can a rebuild return to the Hill standard, or has the program settled into mid-tier?
Montana State
The chipMontana's 25-year winning streak (1986–2011), two national championships, and the sense of inevitability that surrounded the Grizzlies created a chip on Montana State's shoulder that lasted decades. Every loss to Montana stung because the rival seemed to be a better program at every level. That chip drove the 2025 season and is now the fuel that keeps Montana State hungry—they have tasted dominance and will not return to second place.
What this game touches
Generational Montana Dominance (1897–2024). For 127 years, Montana State lived in Montana's shadow. The Grizzlies won 11 straight Brawl of the Wild games (1997–2007) and entered 2024 with a commanding 74–44–5 series lead. Worse: Montana won two national championships (1995, 2001) while Montana State waited. The wound was not acute injury but generational futility—the constant reminder that no matter how good the Bobcats were, the rival across the state was always better. 2024 was the nadir: Montana ranked higher, drew better recruiting, and seemed poised to dominate the 2025 season as well.
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on Montana State’s chances here.
Montana State favored by 25.5 · Total 64.5
Montana State by 25.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Montana State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 412 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
Home field
Montana State is worth +10.3 points (±15.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.
33% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (1-2 home, 4-5 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.0 at home vs. away over 60 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
4,946 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 312 miles to get here.
Week by week
Montana State
- Wk 2Wat Nevada20-7
- Wk 3Wvs Central Connecticut35-30
- Wk 4Wvs Northern Arizona28-14
- Wk 5Lat Idaho34-35
- Wk 7Wat Eastern Washington56-20
Weber State
- Wk 3Wvs Northwestern State49-20
- Wk 4Lvs Portland State41-44
- Wk 5Wat Cal Poly42-34
- Wk 6Wvs Idaho38-27
- Wk 7Wvs Idaho State27-20
Power rating by week
Montana State is rated 9.3 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Montana State4th3-1
- Weber State3rd4-2