Charlotte

1-7

Next game: at UAB

UAB’s best edge on Charlotte is staying on schedule

Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.

Charlotte offense against UAB defense

weakelite
PassingCharlotte 26th · UAB 94th
RunningCharlotte 3rd · UAB 24th
Staying on scheduleCharlotte 3rd · UAB 29th
Big playsCharlotte 14th · UAB 98th
Red zoneCharlotte 26th · UAB 24th

UAB offense against Charlotte defense

weakelite
PassingUAB 7th · Charlotte 7th
RunningUAB 25th · Charlotte 3rd
Staying on scheduleUAB 26th · Charlotte 2nd
Big playsUAB 42nd · Charlotte 52nd
Red zoneUAB 24th · Charlotte 3rd

Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.

Key stats

Key stats · 2026 · FBS rank

Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.

EPA / play133rd of 138
-0.04
EPA allowed / play133rd of 138
+0.26
Penalty yards12th of 138
323
Kick returns20th of 138
17
Havoc rate136th of 138
10.7%
Passer rating allowed134th of 137
163.4
Points / game120th of 138
20.6
All 68 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
2631328.9/gm5.44/play123rd of 13866th of 7012th of 145th of 5
Opp
3723465.4/gm6.59/play133rd of 13868th of 7013th of 141st of 5
Rush yards
Team
993124.1/gm2.05/play114th of 13859th of 7013th of 144th of 5
Opp
1493186.6/gm2.64/play115th of 13866th of 709th of 141st of 5
Rush carries
Team
24430.5/gm127th of 13865th of 7014th of 145th of 5
Opp
31339.1/gm108th of 13865th of 707th of 141st of 5
Rush TDs
Team
111.4/gmTied 90th of 138Tied 49th of 70Tied 10th of 144th of 5
Opp
222.8/gmTied 133rd of 138Tied 68th of 7013th of 142nd of 5
Net pass yards
Team
1638204.8/gm3.38/play102nd of 13862nd of 706th of 145th of 5
Opp
2230278.8/gm3.95/play130th of 13865th of 7014th of 141st of 5
Pass attempts
Team
24030.0/gmTied 84th of 138Tied 47th of 707th of 145th of 5
Opp
25231.5/gmTied 80th of 138Tied 35th of 7013th of 141st of 5
Completions
Team
15519.4/gm78th of 13845th of 706th of 145th of 5
Opp
18322.9/gmTied 126th of 138Tied 63rd of 7014th of 141st of 5
Pass TDs
Team
81.0/gmTied 115th of 138Tied 64th of 708th of 144th of 5
Opp
182.2/gmTied 127th of 138Tied 66th of 70Tied 12th of 141st of 5
Passer rating
Team
130.4130.491st of 13856th of 707th of 142nd of 5
Opp
163.4163.4134th of 13769th of 7012th of 134th of 5
Interceptions thrown
Team
91.1/gmTied 121st of 138Tied 63rd of 7014th of 141st of 5
Opp
30.4/gmTied 113th of 138Tied 56th of 70Tied 10th of 145th of 5
Sacks (def)
Team
111.4/gmTied 111th of 138Tied 61st of 7010th of 145th of 5
Opp
162.0/gmTied 73rd of 138Tied 37th of 70Tied 8th of 141st of 5
Tackles for loss
Team
384.8/gmTied 94th of 138Tied 50th of 709th of 145th of 5
Opp
465.8/gmTied 88th of 138Tied 44th of 7012th of 141st of 5
First downs
Team
13016.2/gm131st of 13868th of 7013th of 145th of 5
Opp
18723.4/gmTied 131st of 13866th of 7014th of 141st of 5
3rd-down conv
Team
344.2/gmTied 127th of 138Tied 65th of 7013th of 145th of 5
Opp
496.1/gmTied 117th of 13861st of 7013th of 141st of 5
3rd-down att
Team
10112.6/gmTied 99th of 138Tied 48th of 709th of 145th of 5
Opp
10413.0/gmTied 37th of 138Tied 18th of 704th of 141st of 5
4th-down conv
Team
40.5/gmTied 121st of 138Tied 63rd of 70Tied 13th of 145th of 5
Opp
91.1/gmTied 83rd of 138Tied 48th of 70Tied 7th of 141st of 5
4th-down att
Team
141.8/gmTied 81st of 138Tied 41st of 709th of 145th of 5
Opp
131.6/gmTied 45th of 138Tied 24th of 70Tied 3rd of 141st of 5
Time of possession
Team
229:0528:38/gm111th of 13857th of 7010th of 145th of 5
Opp
250:5531:22/gm92nd of 13852nd of 709th of 141st of 5

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats · 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
Game Manager · +0.00 EPA/play15574 / 10868.58317.752144.7—49.27.15.3
Pocket Passer · -0.29 EPA/play9579 / 12762.28026.337112.0—18.94.03.8
Running backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
Speed Merchant · +0.01 EPA/play218744526.117517.618.9
Balanced Back · -0.10 EPA/play58622914.756624.613.1
-0.11 EPA/play72201165.8043——
-0.74 EPA/play6421743.5020——
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Slot Technician · +0.04 EPA/play18494759.7137
Possession Receiver · +0.39 EPA/play8982340917.84
#70 FBS
75
Possession Receiver · +0.25 EPA/play262529811.9238
Complete TE · +0.55 EPA/play1941010810.8029
Complete TE · -0.15 EPA/play358465.8016
+0.29 EPA/play8536447.3019

Biggest plays from Charlotte’s games

Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Charlotte’s games this season, whoever made them.

  1. Q2, 4:01 · Charlotte down 4, takes the leadConner Harrell finds Jaden Barnes for a 22-yard touchdownTulane at Charlotte, week 9Q2, 4:01 · Charlotte 17, Tulane 14Charlotte took the lead in the second quarterCharlotte took the lead in the second quarterC.Harrell pass complete deep middle to J.Barnes caught at TLN00, for 22 yards to the TLN00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick goodWatch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q4, 10:52 · Charlotte up 3Derrick Eley runs 1 yard for a touchdownTulane at Charlotte, week 9Q4, 10:52 · Charlotte 31, Tulane 21▲26%Charlotte’s chance to win, 62% to 88%▲26%Charlotte’s chance to win, 62% to 88%D.Eley rush right for 1 yard gain to the TLN00 touchdown, kick goodWatch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q4, 0:10 · Tulane down 7, ties itTrace Johnson finds Cameron Roberts for an 11-yard touchdownTulane at Charlotte, week 9Q4, 0:10 · Tulane 31, Charlotte 310:10Game-tying touchdown for Tulane with 0:10 left0:10Game-tying touchdown for Tulane with 0:10 leftGame-tying touchdown for Tulane with 0:10 leftT.Johnson pass complete short left to C.Roberts caught at CLT00, for 11 yards to the CLT00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick goodWatch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 0:24 · Charlotte down 10Jaylon Johnson returns a fumble 54 yards for a touchdownLouisiana at Charlotte, week 4Q2, 0:24 · Charlotte 7, Louisiana 1054Fumble return touchdown54Fumble return touchdownFumble return touchdownJaylon Johnson 54 yd Fumble Return (Ian Kelly Kick)Watch from this play Sun Belt Conference
  5. Q1, 5:14 · Tulane tiedJohnnie Daniels runs 2 yards for a touchdownTulane at Charlotte, week 9Q1, 5:14 · Tulane 7, Charlotte 092Capped a 92-yard drive92Capped a 92-yard driveCapped a 92-yard driveNo Huddle J.Daniels rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CLT00 touchdown, kick goodWatch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q2, 12:48 · Tulane up 7Jameel Croft intercepts Trace Johnson and returns it 15 yardsTulane at Charlotte, week 9Q2, 12:48 · Tulane 7, Charlotte 07Tulane’s turnover led to a touchdown7Tulane’s turnover led to a touchdownTulane’s turnover led to a touchdownT.Johnson pass intercepted by J.Croft Jr. at CLT15 J.Croft Jr. return 15 yards to the CLT30 (D.Hill), out of boundsWatch from this playESPN College Football

All 22 plays from Charlotte’s games

How scary each game got

Charlotte lost to Tulane after being 97% to win; the closest win was at Temple, down to 18%

50%L1L2L3L4L5L6W7L9

Tap a game for its score and win chances.

Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Charlotte during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.

Stat leaders

2026 stat leaders · Charlotte

through 8 games

Gavin Willis leads Charlotte with 65 tackles through 8 games.

1. Gavin Willis LB 65 tackles
2. Kadin Schmitz LB 55 tackles
3. Collin Gill DB 48 tackles
4. Jameel Croft DB 43 tackles
5. Jaden Barnes WR 475 receiving yards

Roster

Roster

2026
18 players carry a qualified CFB Zeitgeist Score this season so far.
Collin Gill S #24 of 537
Jaden Barnes WR #91 of 465
Kadin Schmitz LB #149 of 567
Gavin Willis LB #153 of 567
Jameel Croft S #158 of 537
Derrick Eley WR #153 of 465

+12 more

Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back

How they play

How they play · 2026

Charlotte fields a struggling pass-first offense behind a porous defense.

Offense
4th pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
52% pass plays
Defense
4th pct EPA allowed

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

Player percentiles

Player percentiles · Charlotte · 2026

Charlotte reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 49%) and field position (O) (top 64%); the crux lives in success rate allowed, where Charlotte sits at the 1st percentile.

Offense · strengths lead

EPA / play -0.04
4th
Success rate +0.35
3rd
Explosive plays +1.15
14th
Rushing EPA -0.14
3rd
Red-zone finish +3.26
26th

Defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA allowed +0.26
4th
Success rate allowed +0.49
2nd
Explosive plays allowed +1.23
52nd
Passing EPA allowed +0.39
7th
Red-zone defense +5.00
3rd

Hidden math · special situations

Field position (O) +28.60
37th
Passing EPA +0.10
26th
Rushing EPA allowed +0.21
3rd
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 8 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 138 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Charlotte has had no measurable home edge: +1.0 points, home against road.

No measurable home edge, 6th percentile of 133 programs

35% at home, 24% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (14-26 home, 12-37 away). Interval ±4.0.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest
95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest
The stadium and how the home edge is measured

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Charlotte has beaten the number by 8.0 points less at home than away over 97 games. That is outside the ±6.0 that many games can resolve, so this is one of the few buildings where the results say something the flat number does not.

Jerry Richardson Stadium seats 15,300 and has averaged 81% full (12,381, 27 games reported). Visitors cover a median 503 miles to get here since 2018 — 51st-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 19% of the 2026 roster (20 of 103 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 48 home games since 2018.

Home14-26Away12-37Edge+1.0 ±4.0Visitor trip503 mi

More in this tab

How they play

Usage splitsSean Brown is the money-down target

How the players get used

From the 2025 season's play-by-play

  • Deep threatSean Brown is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
  • Money downSean Brown is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
  • Garbage timeJaven Nicholas does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score.
Position battlesReps are split — here's who's actually winning them.

RB room

The carries are split. The job isn’t.

Henry Rutledge and Khamani Alexander split the carries (74/135 vs 61/135) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Khamani Alexander gets the goal line.

Henry RutledgeKhamani Alexander
Carries
7461
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Inside the 5
1/1110/11
p = 0.004 -- real, not noise
Targets
9/2213/22
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
40.0%57.3%
concentration alone -- EPA/carry doesn't corroborate, read with caution
See it develop week by week

Inside-the-5 share, week by week (weeks both players actually played the role)

50/50Wk 1Wk 7Wk 9Henry RutledgeKhamani Alexander
Screened 3 claims, 1 survived, 2 falsified

WR/TE room

The targets are split. The job isn’t.

Jaden Barnes (WR) and Brody Dawyot (TE) split the targets (65/76 vs 11/76) -- but the job isn't split the same way.

Jaden BarnesBrody Dawyot
Targets
6511
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
13/152/15
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Garbage-time share
8/102/10
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
31.6%77.8%
concentration alone -- EPA/target doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 3 claims, 0 survived, 3 falsified
Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

How much of Charlotte’s number is the schedule?

Raw EPA/play through week 10 is -0.04; 5th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.02. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.29 raw vs. 0.01 adjusted.

0.350.08-0.20Wk 2Wk 6Wk 10Raw EPA/playOpponent-adjusted
0.350.08-0.20Wk 2Wk 6Wk 10RawAdjusted
Source CFB Zeitgeist · season-to-date, opponent-adjusted model
Havoc & trenchesDefense havoc rate 0.107, 2th percentile

Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc rate (D) 0.107
2nd
Havoc allowed (O) 0.190
4th
Front-seven havoc (D) 0.080
16th
Secondary havoc (D) 0.027
1st
Stuff rate (D) 0.200
52nd
Stuff rate allowed (O) 0.264
1st
Line yards (O) 2.341
2nd
Line yards allowed (D) 3.180
12th
Standard-downs success (O) 0.408
5th
Standard-downs success allowed (D) 0.529
3rd
Passing-downs success (O) 0.260
15th
Passing-downs success allowed (D) 0.389
4th
Screened 12 claims, 12 survived · 2026 season, FBS only, min. 3 games with data this season
Turnover luckHow much of the margin was skill vs. the bounce.
Fumble luck

Recovering 43% of the fumbles they've forced — running cold vs. the ~48% league rate.

3 of 7 forced fumbles recovered; 6 of 13 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.

TakeawaysWhat this defense does once it gets the ball.
Takeaway conversion

Converting 19% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~18% league rate.

3 interceptions of 16 disrupted passes (13 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2026 only.

PenaltiesWhether flags are costing this team games.
Penalty battle

Winning the penalty battle: 49 penalties committed vs. 50 drawn on opponents, a 101-yard edge.

323 penalty yards committed vs. 424 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.

Ratings and comparisons

RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Where the models rank Charlotte

CFB Zeitgeist Score

#135

-8.3

SP+

#136

-25.4

FPI

#132

-20.3

Elo

#133

1046

SRS

#137

-24.8

The national models put Charlotte between 132nd and 137th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist agrees, slotting them 135th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist Score ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Charlotte

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

WeatherHow warm or cold its home and road games usually are.

Jerry Richardson Stadium, Charlotte, NC

Usual during the game around Nov 14: 55°, between 45° and 68° in about 7 in 10 games (27 games since 2016).

Road games since 2016: the middle game was 69°, and 8 in 10 ran between 48° and 84° (52 of 57 road games, at stadiums we cover).

HomeRoad

What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time

Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure

Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site