CFB Zeitgeist Score
3
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by rush tds at the 13th percentile.
Chance Williams
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
35 RUSH YDS · 1 RUSH TD · 14 CARRIES
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Charlotte
2025Cincinnati
2026Charlotte
RB · CINCINNATI · BIG 12
Chance Williams
- 3
- #7
- 5-7 | 190 lb
- Baton Rouge, LA
Heisman Heat
#1034
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR05 · Part-time starter
Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2024–2025-48%
Sharp dropoff (-48%) — career inflection point.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Cincinnati
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#21 in market ▼ from #18 · 6 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8267 | No. 1770 recruit | HighSchool | Grambling |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Cincinnati -> Charlotte | 3-star | Immediate |
| 2024 | Grambling -> Cincinnati | 3-star | 0.8700 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Grambling
Composite
0.8267
#1770 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Chance Williams
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
—
Awaiting per-cohort signal
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- National · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Chance Williams
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 5g
35Rush yards
14Carries
1Rush TDs
Per game
7Rush yards
3Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
91Rush yards
36Carries
3Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 35): needs 89.4/game over remaining 8.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 35): needs 120.6/game over remaining 8.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 35): needs 183.1/game over remaining 8.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 1): needs 1.1/game over remaining 8.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 1): needs 1.8/game over remaining 8.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 1): needs 2.4/game over remaining 8.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Chance Williams's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Cincinnati, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
14 33rd
YDS
35 24th
YPC
2.5 9th
TD
1 56th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 5 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 17-20vs Nebraska | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 | |
| Wk 2 | W 34-20vs Bowling Green | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Wk 3 | W 70-0vs Northwestern State | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Wk 9 | W 41-20vs Baylor | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 10 | L 14-45@ Utah | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 | 6 | Season-high 15 yds |
| Total | 14 | 35 | 2.9 | 1 | 7 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2024Cincinnati5-7HC: Scott Satterfield · Balanced
2025Cincinnati7-6HC: Scott Satterfield · Balanced, slow tempo
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Cincinnati | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 1 | -- |
| 2024 | Cincinnati | 15 | 67 | 4.5 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 29 | 102 | 3.5 | 1 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 35 | #563/735 | 24th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 1 | #323/739 | 56th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 2.5 | #667/735 | 9th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 4.9% | #546/738 | 26th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 14 | #495/739 | 33rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 7 | #632/733 | 14th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 9.5% | #507/738 | 31st pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 7.9% | #419/738 | 43rd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 6.5% | #500/738 | 32nd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 2.7% | #563/738 | 24th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 1.4% | #690/738 | 7th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 0.0% | #564/738 | 24th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 0.0% | #648/738 | 12th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 5 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home4g | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.2 |
| Road1g | 15.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins3g | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| Losses2g | 10.0 | 3.8 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 3.7 | 3.0 | 0.3 |
| Weeks 8+2g | 12.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
3Below cohort
Concern: carries (0th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Chance WilliamsCincinnatiTae MeadowsTroy· 37% simAl-Jay HendersonBuffalo· 37% simRashod DubinionApp State· 36% sim
Rush TDs
Yards / carry
Rush yards
Long run
Carries
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Scott Satterfield
Pass share
47.8%
363 pass / 396 run
Plays / game
58.4
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
2.6%
266 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced, slow tempo.
Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025
1 coach2024
Scott Satterfield
Cincinnati
2025
Scott Satterfield
Cincinnati
Played his entire career under Scott Satterfield.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownBaton Rouge, LA
Height5'7"
Weight190 lb
Class3
PositionRB
Jersey7
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamCincinnati
ConferenceBig 12
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Cincinnati | RB3 | #1034 | #1055 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big 12 |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Cincinnati | Big 12 | RB | 3 | No. 7 | 5-7 | 190 lb | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 2024 | Cincinnati | Big 12 | RB | 3 | No. 7 | 5-7 | 190 lb | Baton Rouge, LA |