No. 14 Tennessee upsets No. 6 Alabama 26-10

No. 6 Alabama5-210
No. 14 Tennessee6-126Final
Sat, Oct 17 · Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tenn. · Crowd 101,915ABC

No. 14 Tennessee beat No. 6 Alabama 26-10 as a 7.5-point underdog.

We had Alabama favored. Tennessee won.

Next: Alabama vs Texas A&M, Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Alabama favored by 14

Next: Tennessee at South Carolina, Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Tennessee underdog by 2.5

Top comment in the game thread

I think he grabbed the ear hole which I believe is still a facemask penalty

Q2 12:18 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Ranvier 33-yd field goal, Tennessee leads 6-0 (Q1, 8:59). Tennessee went from 49% to 72% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Tennessee a 22% chance, and the closing betting line (Tennessee was a 7.5-point underdog) put it at 27%.

FinalTennessee 26-10 AlabamaTennessee wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q444% at halfTennesseeAlabamaWon26-1012+23+22ScoresTennesseeAlabamaTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 3 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 18 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 21 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 24 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 22 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 10 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 17 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 18 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 13 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 25 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 23 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 20 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 4 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 1 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 3 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 1 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 3 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 6 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 10 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 10 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 12 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 7 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 1 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 26 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 22 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 10 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 18 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 21 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 22 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 26 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 18 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 24 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 1 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 0 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 5 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 13 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 16 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 16 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 15 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 12 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 27 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 21 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 18 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 13 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 6 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 12 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 31 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 18 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 15 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 11 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 11 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 6 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 3 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 12 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 5 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 5 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 3 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 13 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 13 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minute
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q444% at halfTennesseeWon26-1012ScoresTenness…AlabamaTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 3 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 18 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 21 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 24 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 22 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 10 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 17 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 18 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 13 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 25 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 23 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 20 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 4 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 1 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 3 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 1 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 3 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 6 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 10 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 10 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 12 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 7 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 1 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 26 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 22 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 10 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 18 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 21 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 22 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 26 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 18 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 24 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 1 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 0 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 5 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 13 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 16 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 16 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 15 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 12 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 27 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 21 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 18 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 13 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 6 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 12 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 31 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 18 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 15 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 11 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 11 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 6 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 3 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 12 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 5 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 5 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 3 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 13 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 13 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q456% at halfAlabamaTennesseeLost10-2612−23−22ScoresAlabamaTennesseeAlabama fans: 1 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 0 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 5 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 13 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 16 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 16 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 15 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 12 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 27 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 21 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 18 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 13 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 6 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 12 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 31 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 18 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 15 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 11 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 11 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 6 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 3 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 12 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 5 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 5 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 3 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 13 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 13 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 3 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 18 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 21 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 24 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 22 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 10 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 17 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 18 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 13 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 25 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 23 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 20 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 4 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 1 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 3 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 1 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 3 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 6 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 10 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 10 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 12 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 7 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 1 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 26 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 22 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 10 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 18 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 21 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 22 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 26 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 18 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 24 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q456% at halfTennesseeLost10-2612ScoresAlabamaTenness…Alabama fans: 1 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 0 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 5 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 13 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 16 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 16 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 15 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 12 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 27 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 21 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 18 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 13 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 6 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 12 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 31 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 18 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 15 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 11 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 11 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 6 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 3 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 12 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 5 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 5 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 7 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 3 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 4 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 9 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 13 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 13 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 10 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteAlabama fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 3 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 18 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 21 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 24 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 22 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 10 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 17 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 18 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 13 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 8 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 25 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 23 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 20 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 4 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 1 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 3 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 1 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 3 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 6 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 10 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 10 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 12 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 16 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 9 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 7 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 11 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 1 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 14 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 26 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 22 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 10 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 18 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 21 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 22 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 26 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 18 comments a minuteTennessee fans: 24 comments a minute

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 8:59Ranvier 33-yd field goal, Tennessee leads 6-0Tennessee 49% → 72% (+23)
  2. 2Q3 5:05Bishop 5-yd TD run, Tennessee leads 19-10Tennessee 57% → 79% (+22)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 8:59Ranvier 33-yd field goal, Tennessee leads 6-0Alabama 51% → 28% (−23)
  2. 2Q3 5:05Bishop 5-yd TD run, Tennessee leads 19-10Alabama 43% → 21% (−22)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q1 3:11Russell's interception by Lane sparks frustration over Tennessee's stalled offenseWasting that INT sucksr/CFB game thread
  2. Q2 12:18Fans argue refs missed a facemask penalty on Alabama's punt returnQuoted at the top of the page.
  3. Q2 4:04Tennessee fans condemn Rouse for fumbling punt returnRouse should never play another down of football for Tennessee.r/CFB game threadI don't get that at all Honestly though, if they lose now I'll be like it's because they're dumb, not because they're bad at football. Easy cope, sor/CFB game thread
  4. Q4 0:48Tennessee fans celebrate as Alabama's Russell throws an interception to LeeJosh Huepel is undefeated against Bama at homer/CFB game threadSEC Shorts and Roll Call are going to be great on Monday.r/CFB game thread
Tennessee’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Alabama -7.5), at 41% for Tennessee (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Tennessee or Alabama flair (2,400 and 1,745); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Tennessee’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 9:57Russell sackedfumblesQ1, 9:57 · Tennessee 3, Alabama 03-0score after the play3-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q1, 5:20MacIntyre sacked for a 2-yd lossQ1, 5:20 · Tennessee 6, Alabama 06-0score after the play6-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q1, 3:11Russell intercepted by Lane at the Alabama 43Q1, 3:11 · Tennessee 9, Alabama 0▼8%Tennessee’s chance to win, 76% to 68%▼8%Tennessee’s chance to win, 76% to 68%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 10:20MacIntyre intercepted by Taylor at the Tennessee 28returned 14 yardsQ2, 10:20 · Tennessee 9, Alabama 0▼6%Tennessee’s chance to win, 66% to 60%▼6%Tennessee’s chance to win, 66% to 60%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q2, 10:13Russell 19-yd TD runcuts it to 9-7Q2, 10:13 · Tennessee 9, Alabama 7▼5%Tennessee’s chance to win, 60% to 55%▼5%Tennessee’s chance to win, 60% to 55%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q2, 4:0446-yd punt, Tennessee returns it 0fumbledQ2, 4:04 · Tennessee 12, Alabama 7▼6%Tennessee’s chance to win, 59% to 53%▼6%Tennessee’s chance to win, 59% to 53%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  7. Q2, 1:53Hill 3-yd runfumblesQ2, 1:53 · Tennessee 12, Alabama 7▲4%Tennessee’s chance to win, 58% to 62%▲4%Tennessee’s chance to win, 58% to 62%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  8. Q2, 0:30Russell sacked for a 10-yd lossQ2, 0:30 · Tennessee 12, Alabama 7▲4%Tennessee’s chance to win, 58% to 62%▲4%Tennessee’s chance to win, 58% to 62%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  9. Q3, 5:05Bishop 5-yd TD runTennessee leads 19-10Q3, 5:05 · Tennessee 19, Alabama 10▲22%Tennessee’s chance to win, 57% to 79%▲22%Tennessee’s chance to win, 57% to 79%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  10. Q4, 3:17Bishop 5-yd TD runTennessee leads 26-10Q4, 3:17 · Tennessee 26, Alabama 1026-10score after the play26-10score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  11. Q4, 0:48Russell intercepted by Lee at the Tennessee 0Q4, 0:48 · Tennessee 26, Alabama 1026-10score after the play26-10score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

Tennessee scored on 6 of its 13 drives; Alabama on 2 of its 13.

Tennessee’s drives are teal, Alabama’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Tennessee: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 12Field goalAlabama: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 81FumbleTennessee: Field goal, from 19 yards out to 15Field goalAlabama: Punt, from 75 yards out to 88PuntTennessee: Field goal, from 50 yards out to 23Field goalAlabama: Interception, from 75 yards out to 75InterceptionTennessee: Punt, from 43 yards out to 45PuntAlabama: Punt, from 91 yards out to 64PuntQ2Tennessee: Punt, from 74 yards out to 71PuntAlabama: Punt, from 65 yards out to 56PuntTennessee: Interception, from 86 yards out to 86InterceptionAlabama: Touchdown, from 14 yards out to 0TouchdownTennessee: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 15Field goalAlabama: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntAlabama: Fumble, from 23 yards out to 11FumbleTennessee: Punt, from 89 yards out to 85PuntAlabama: Field goal, from 55 yards out to 24Field goalTennessee: End of half, from 85 yards out to 89End of halfQ3Alabama: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 40DownsTennessee: Touchdown, from 60 yards out to 0TouchdownAlabama: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71PuntTennessee: Punt, from 72 yards out to 51PuntQ4Alabama: Punt, from 88 yards out to 81PuntTennessee: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownAlabama: Interception, from 88 yards out to 26InterceptionTennessee: End of game, from 80 yards out to 71End of game

From Alabama’s side

Alabama’s best moment: 38-yd punt (Q1 6:47). It lifted Alabama’s win chance by 17 points.

How Alabama fans took it: “Are they playing Dixieland Delight 😭😭” r/CFB game thread

“I love how we’ve been begging for a QB that will pass, and now that we’ve finally got that, everyone has forgot how to catch.”
A Tennessee fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans peaked in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was loud.

FirstSecondThirdFourthTennessee fansAlabama fansusual

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Tennessee fans

bishop“Guy wasn’t even close to tackling Bishop. Didn’t need to throw that block. But that is absolutely not targeting”

don“If Alabama scores a TD here I genuinely don’t see any way Tennessee can win”

Alabama fans

grubb“We might lose 27-0 via 9 field goals unless Grubb and Keelon remember how to run an offense”

facemask“He shouldn't have put is facemask on the defenders hand. That's on bama”

yards“Should have accepted that penalty to actually get positive yards on the box score.”

penalty“The rule book say facemask is a penalty unless you grab an Alabama players facemask”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, back, take, field.

Too close to call on 52% of plays.

What it cost

Alabama’s chance to make the playoff fell from 77% to 66%.

Make the playoff

Alabama · lost77% → ▼66%77%▼ 66%
Tennessee · won22% → ▲32%22%▲ 32%

Win the conference

Alabama · lost20% → ▼11%20%▼ 11%
Tennessee · won2% → ▲4%

Win the title

Alabama · lost11% → ▼10%11%▼ 10%
Tennessee · won1% → 1%

Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Alabama plays vs Texas A&M on Sat Oct 24 with a 66% chance to make the playoff. Tennessee plays at South Carolina on Sat Oct 24 with a 32% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Tennessee 26, Alabama 10

Tennessee covered +7.5 by 23.5. The total, 36, stayed under 50.5.

AlabamaTennesseeTotal yardsAlabama 201Tennessee 347201347Passing yardsAlabama 147Tennessee 197147197Rushing yardsAlabama 54Tennessee 15054150First downsAlabama 12Tennessee 201220TurnoversAlabama 4Tennessee 242Time of possessionAlabama 24:16Tennessee 35:4424:1635:44
Team totalsAlabamaTennessee
Total yards201347
Passing19 of 29, 147 yds21 of 31, 197 yds
Rushing26 for 54 yds41 for 150 yds
First downs1220
Third down2 of 136 of 15
Fourth down1 of 31 of 1
Turnovers42
Penalties10 for 68 yds8 for 65 yds
Time of possession24:1635:44

Alabama leaders

  • Passing Keelon Russell 19 of 29, 147 yds, 2 INT
  • Rushing Daniel Hill 7 for 34 yds; Trae'shawn Brown 6 for 12 yds
  • Receiving Rico Scott 4 for 54 yds; Marshall Pritchett 6 for 39 yds

Tennessee leaders

  • Passing George MacIntyre 21 of 31, 197 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing DeSean Bishop 32 for 159 yds, 2 TD; Daune Morris 4 for 12 yds
  • Receiving Mike Matthews 7 for 85 yds; Dasaahn Brame 3 for 39 yds

No rain through the game

61° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 64°, with about 7 in 10 games between 56° and 74°.

October game-day temperatures at Neyland Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Tennessee favoredAlabama favored100%Win chanceTennesseeRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Tennessee favoredAlabama favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 8:59 left4:03 p.m.
Alabama 0, Tennessee 6 · Tennessee 72% to win
no rain · 61°
Ranvier 33-yd field goal, Tennessee leads 6-0

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Knoxville Downtown airport, 2.9 miles away, and Knoxville Municipal airport, 10 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Alabama · 5-1

Rated 21st in our preseason ratings, 6th now, up 15 spots.

2-1 in its last three, 2 over ranked or top-40 competition.

Last three games

Tennessee · 5-1

Rated 30th in our preseason ratings, 30th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

Week by week

Tennessee

Wk 2: W 45-24 at Georgia Tech▲21G. TechWk 3: W 42-9 vs Kennesaw State▲33Kennesaw…Wk 4: L 17-20 vs Texas▼3TexasWk 5: W 24-14 vs Auburn▲10AuburnWk 6: W 24-17 at Arkansas▲7Arkansas
  • Wk 2Wat Georgia Tech45-24
  • Wk 3Wvs Kennesaw State42-9
  • Wk 4Lvs Texas17-20
  • Wk 5Wvs Auburn24-14
  • Wk 6Wat Arkansas24-17

Alabama

Wk 2: W 45-17 at Kentucky▲28KentuckyWk 3: W 50-36 vs Florida State▲14F. St.Wk 4: W 49-18 vs South Carolina▲31S. Carol…Wk 5: W 56-23 at Mississippi State▲33Mississi…Wk 6: L 17-20 vs Georgia▼3Georgia
  • Wk 2Wat Kentucky45-17
  • Wk 3Wvs Florida State50-36
  • Wk 4Wvs South Carolina49-18
  • Wk 5Wat Mississippi State56-23
  • Wk 6Lvs Georgia17-20

Power rating by week

Alabama is rated 6.2 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

1495Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6TennesseeAlabama

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Alabama’s explosive plays against Tennessee, 25 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Alabama’s explosive plays against Tennessee’s defense

    25 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Alabama offense, 70th percentile · Tennessee defense, 95th

  2. Tennessee’s EPA/play against Alabama’s defense

    23 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Tennessee offense, 63rd percentile · Alabama defense, 86th

  3. Alabama’s passing EPA against Tennessee’s defense

    19 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Alabama offense, 76th percentile · Tennessee defense, 95th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

AlabamaTennessee
EPA/play, offense
Alabama · 80Tennessee · 63
EPA/play, defense
Alabama · 86Tennessee · 96
Success rate, offense
Alabama · 78Tennessee · 66
Success rate, defense
Alabama · 78Tennessee · 75
Explosive-play rate, offense
Alabama · 70Tennessee · 24
Explosive-play rate, defense
Alabama · 24Tennessee · 95
Rush EPA, offense
Alabama · 71Tennessee · 95
Rush EPA, defense
Alabama · 96Tennessee · 67
Pass EPA, offense
Alabama · 76Tennessee · 36
Pass EPA, defense
Alabama · 52Tennessee · 95

The series

Alabama leads the series 61-39-7

107 meetings since 1903 · Alabama won the last meeting

Tennessee wonAlabama won1903: Alabama by 241904: Tennessee by 51905: Alabama by 291906: Alabama by 511907: Alabama by 51908: Alabama by 41909: Alabama by 101912: Alabama by 71913: Alabama by 61914: Tennessee by 101928: Tennessee by 21929: Tennessee by 61930: Alabama by 121931: Tennessee by 251932: Tennessee by 41933: Alabama by 61934: Alabama by 71935: Alabama by 251936: tie1937: Alabama by 71938: Tennessee by 131939: Tennessee by 211940: Tennessee by 151941: Alabama by 71942: Alabama by 81944: tie1945: Alabama by 181946: Tennessee by 121947: Alabama by 101948: Tennessee by 151949: tie1950: Tennessee by 51951: Tennessee by 141952: Tennessee by 201953: tie1954: Alabama by 271955: Tennessee by 201956: Tennessee by 241957: Tennessee by 141958: Tennessee by 71959: tie1960: Tennessee by 131961: Alabama by 311962: Alabama by 201963: Alabama by 351964: Alabama by 111965: tie1966: Alabama by 11967: Tennessee by 111968: Tennessee by 11969: Tennessee by 271970: Tennessee by 241971: Alabama by 171972: Alabama by 71973: Alabama by 211974: Alabama by 221975: Alabama by 231976: Alabama by 71977: Alabama by 141978: Alabama by 131979: Alabama by 101980: Alabama by 271981: Alabama by 191982: Tennessee by 71983: Tennessee by 71984: Tennessee by 11985: Tennessee by 21986: Alabama by 281987: Alabama by 191988: Alabama by 81989: Alabama by 171990: Alabama by 31991: Alabama by 51992: Alabama by 71993: tie1994: Alabama by 41995: Tennessee by 271996: Tennessee by 71997: Tennessee by 171998: Tennessee by 171999: Tennessee by 142000: Tennessee by 102001: Tennessee by 112002: Alabama by 202003: Tennessee by 82004: Tennessee by 42005: Alabama by 32006: Tennessee by 32007: Alabama by 242008: Alabama by 202009: Alabama by 22010: Alabama by 312011: Alabama by 312012: Alabama by 312013: Alabama by 352014: Alabama by 142015: Alabama by 52016: Alabama by 392017: Alabama by 382018: Alabama by 372019: Alabama by 222020: Alabama by 312021: Alabama by 282022: Tennessee by 32023: Alabama by 142024: Tennessee by 72025: Alabama by 1719032025
  • 2025Alabama 37-20Tennessee lost 20-37 at Alabama. Chance to win started at 22%, low under 1%, high 36%.
  • 2024Tennessee 24-17Tennessee won 24-17 vs Alabama. Chance to win started at 39%, low 9%, high 97%.
  • 2023Alabama 34-20Tennessee lost 20-34 at Alabama. Chance to win started at 31%, low under 1%, high 98%.
  • 2022Tennessee 52-49Tennessee won 52-49 vs Alabama. Chance to win started at 30%, low 9%, high better than 99%.The 2022 game and what was said
  • 2021Alabama 52-24Tennessee lost 24-52 at Alabama. Chance to win started at 6%, low under 1%, high 23%.

Each line is Tennessee’s chance to win through that meeting. Tennessee is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Tennessee fans are in a better mood than Alabama fans (53rd vs 19th among FBS fanbases), even with Alabama favored.

50-50Model 22% · Line 27%Tennessee fans · 53rdAlabama fans · 19thAlabamaTennessee

Alabama favored by 7.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Alabama by 7.5, on the usual path until Q1 14:51

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 6 points toward Alabama.

opened +1.5now +7.5

The total fell 6 points.

opened 56.5now 50.5

Spread: +1.5 → +7.5 · Total: 56.5 → 50.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Tennessee is worth +6.6 points (±4.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 90th percentile.

66% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (35-18 home, 18-19 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.6 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 280 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Our History pages cover 11 of their meetings since 2015.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full SEC standings