Texas A&M at Alabama
Texas A&M (4‑3) travels to Alabama (#13, 5‑2), with Alabama favored by 13.5. The model gives Alabama a 62% shot. Texas A&M’s offense is at the 29th percentile on efficiency; Alabama’s defense is at the 87th.
How they got here
Last three games
Texas A&M · 4-3
Rated 6th in our preseason ratings, 25th now, down 19 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Alabama · 5-2
Rated 21st in our preseason ratings, 7th now, up 14 spots.
1-2 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Biggest mismatch: Texas A&M’s EPA/play against Alabama, 58 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Texas A&M’s EPA/play against Alabama’s defense
Texas A&M offense, 29th percentile · Alabama defense, 87th
Texas A&M’s passing EPA against Alabama’s defense
Texas A&M offense, 17th percentile · Alabama defense, 52nd
Texas A&M’s explosive plays against Alabama’s defense
Texas A&M offense, 5th percentile · Alabama defense, 24th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Alabama projected #4 seed · Texas A&M projected #8 seed
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of October 23, 2026
The series
Alabama leads the series 13-3
16 meetings since 1941 · Alabama has won the last 2
- 2023Alabama 26-20
- 2022Alabama 24-20
- 2021Texas A&M 41-38The 2021 game and what was said
- 2020Alabama 52-24
- 2019Alabama 47-28
Each line is Alabama’s chance to win through that meeting. Alabama is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Texas A&M
The chip · vs the national mediaFans heard the program written off as all pageantry and no payoff — the place with the best traditions and the most overrated football in America — for a generation. The 2025 Playoff berth was the answer, and they intend to keep delivering it until the narrative stops.
What this game touches
The 2025 stumble at the summit. Texas A&M ripped off its first 11-0 start since 1992 and rose to No. 3 in the Playoff rankings — the highest in program history — then lost the rivalry game to Texas 27-17, missed the SEC Championship despite a 7-1 league record, and fell 10-3 to Miami in the program's first Playoff game. The best season in a generation ended one rung below the mountaintop.
Alabama
The chip · vs the national mediaEvery loss now feeds the same eulogy — that the dynasty died with Saban and DeBoer is presiding over the decline. The fanbase has heard the program written off before, and isn't ready to concede it.
What this game touches
The post-Saban altitude question. Saban retired after 2023; Kalen DeBoer went 9-4, then 11-4, reaching the 2025 Playoff but getting routed 38-3 by eventual champion Indiana in the semifinal — the first real evidence the program might be merely very good rather than supreme.
Best players
Texas A&M
- Ray Coney (LB) · 37 tackles
- Marcel Reed (QB) · 1,225 passing yards — Heisman odds: 14th (+3500)
- Noah Mikhail (LB) · 30 tackles
Alabama
- Caleb Woodson (LB) · 53 tackles
- Luke Metz (LB) · 50 tackles
- Keelon Russell (QB) · 1,746 passing yards — Heisman odds: 11th (+2400)
What to watch
Player to watch: Marcel Reed (QB) — Texas A&M’s leading passer (1,225 passing yards) takes on Alabama’s pass defense (52nd percentile allowed).
The spread has moved 11.0 points toward Alabama since opening (−2.5 → −13.5).
The total has moved down 4.0 points since opening (54.5 → 50.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Alabama fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (19th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
- Model · 62%
- Line · 86%
- Alabama fans · 19th
- Texas A&M fans · 26th
Alabama favored by 13.5 · Total 50.5
Alabama by 13.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Alabama’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 387 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Warm. No coat needed.
Texas A&M at Alabama · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 3:30 pm ET · ABC · Bryant-Denny Stadium.
- 74°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 12 mphwind gusts
- 100weather score, Ideal
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 9:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Tied for the highest forecast of this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Bryant-Denny Stadium: noon Saturdays score 83, 3:30 pm 85, 7:30 pm 95.
- noon: 83, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 85, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Alabama is worth +6.1 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 83rd percentile.
92% at home, 78% on the road against FBS opponents (47-4 home, 32-9 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.6 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 546 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Alabama
- Wk 3Wvs Florida State50-36
- Wk 4Wvs South Carolina49-18
- Wk 5Wat Mississippi State56-23
- Wk 6Lvs Georgia17-20
- Wk 7Lat Tennessee10-26
Texas A&M
- Wk 3Lvs Kentucky21-31
- Wk 4Lat LSU6-35
- Wk 5Wvs Arkansas34-7
- Wk 6Lat Missouri6-27
- Wk 7Wvs The Citadel41-0
Power rating by week
Alabama is rated 3.9 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 11 points toward Alabama.
The total fell 4 points.
Spread: −2.5 → −13.5 · Total: 54.5 → 50.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Texas A&M beats Alabama on a field goal as time expiresGame · Oct 9, 2021
Our History pages cover 4 of their meetings since 2015.