Josh Heupel

Head coach · Tennessee
6th season · since 2021 · UCF before

At Tennessee51-22since 2021 · 6-2 this seasonHot seatCool1% · 87th of 132 jobsLast gameL 24-27at South Carolina · Oct 24Nextvs KentuckySat Nov 7 · 6:15 pm ET · ESPN
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

6-2, on track for 8-4 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianUCFTennesseeSouth FloridaSouth FloridaAlabamaAlabamaDynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelUCF when he took over: 34.8 (National Program II), its final 2017 readingtook overUCF, 2018: 12-1, National Program IUCF, 2018: 12-1, National Program I201812-1UCF, 2019: 10-3, National Program I201910-3UCF, 2020: 6-4, National Program IUCF, 2020: 6-4, National Program I20206-4+7.2Tennessee when he took over: 43.8 (Power Program III), its final 2020 readingtook overTennessee, 2021: 7-6, Power Program IIITennessee, 2021: 7-6, Power Program III20217-6Tennessee, 2022: 11-2, Power Program II202211-2Tennessee, 2023: 9-4, Power Program II20239-4Tennessee, 2024: 10-3, Power Program II202410-3Tennessee, 2025: 8-5, Power Program II20258-5Tennessee, 2026: 6-2, Power Program IITennessee, 2026: 6-2, Power Program II20266-2+8.1best: 2024gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 3-5

UCF2018Fiesta BowlL 32-402019Gasparilla BowlW 48-252020Boca Raton BowlL 23-49Tennessee2021Music City BowlL 45-482022Orange BowlW 31-142023Citrus BowlW 35-02024CFP first roundL 17-422025Music City BowlL 28-30

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 24-27 at South Carolina Sat Oct 24
  • This season6-2
  • On track for8-4 regular season
  • Nextvs. Kentucky Sat Nov 7
  • Stature19th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • AP poll #11 → #16 down five
  • Playoff odds 37% → 23% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. Kentucky

Sat Nov 7, 6:15 pm ET ESPN · No. 8 Kentucky is 7-1 · First meeting between Heupel and Will Stein as head coaches · Tennessee’s chance to win: 61% (the site’s model)

His week

Tennessee Athletics · 3,023 views by Wednesday

More of him this week

Media session, Kentucky weekWed Oct 28 · Tennessee Athletics · 2,100 views by Wednesday

Dozens of stories this week →

The headlines, Oct 25–Nov 4 from many outlets

On the podcasts

Offense: 60th of 138 per play. Defense: 8th.

Offense, per play60thRunning offense4thDefense, per play8thPass defense11thWorstBest
Offense, per play60th of 138Running offense4th of 138Defense, per play8th of 138Pass defense11th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Tennessee. The other two rows are where Tennessee stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Kentucky (7-1)ESPN61%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Texas A&M (4-4)54%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. LSU (6-2)33%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Vanderbilt (3-5)85%

Percent: Tennessee’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Tennessee stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

12th18th24thPreseason19thFurman W 56-9Furman W 56-9W 56-9Furman19thGeorgia Tech W 45-24Georgia Tech W 45-24W 45-24Georgia Tech18thKennesaw State W 42-9Kennesaw State W 42-9W 42-9Kennesaw State18thTexas L 17-20Texas L 17-20L 17-20Texas19thAuburn W 24-14Auburn W 24-14W 24-14Auburn19thArkansas W 24-17Arkansas W 24-17W 24-17Arkansas19thAlabama W 26-10Alabama W 26-10W 26-10Alabama18thSouth Carolina L 24-27South Carolina L 24-27L 24-27South Carolina19thBye19th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1No game38 headlines · 14th of 138Josh Heupel on Tennessee football QBs, George MacIntyre, Faizon Brandon for Kentucky USA Today
  2. Oct 19–25L 24-27 at South Carolina46 headlines · 6th of 138Too many Tennessee football mistakes, did Josh Heupel make right decision? l Adams Yahoo Sports
  3. Oct 12–18W 26-10 vs. Alabama25 headlines · 17th of 138Josh Heupel recaps Tennessee's win over Alabama Yahoo Sports
  4. Oct 5–11W 24-17 at Arkansas51 headlines · 1st of 138Tennessee HC Josh Heupel provides encouraging update on William Inge after win over Arkansas Yahoo Sports“A true miracle”Josh Heupel shares positive update on Vols LBs coach William Inge, Oct 10
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 24-14 vs. Auburn51 headlines · 5th of 138Josh Heupel made the hard call benching former 5-star Faizon Brandon, but what happens next for Tennessee? CBS Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 17-20 vs. Texas46 headlines · 6th of 138Josh Heupel Blames 2 Units In Particular After Tennessee Lose To Texas at Home Yahoo Sports“Not good enough”Josh Heupel comments on O-line, QB play vs. Texas, Sep 26

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Tennessee’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 91st percentile offense, above the median defense at 73rd.

Tennessee, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

A+
of which —91st
efficiency — 91st percentile success rate, 2021–25
A+92nd
Standard-downs success
B+75th
Passing-downs success
A83rd
Trench push (line yards)
B-57th
Red-zone scoring rate
B67th
Power-success (short yardage)
B+76th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

B+
of which —73rd
73rd percentile SP+ defense, 2021–25
A86th
Front-7 havoc
B+76th
Secondary havoc
B66th
Stuff rate (run defense)
B60th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

1%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool87th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

All five of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now right where 2025 was at this point.

How his seat has moved, and why

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2021202220232024202520262021, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2021, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 5 (5 games in): <1%, 128th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 6 (6 games in): <1%, 128th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 7 (7 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 8 (8 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 123rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2022, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 110th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 123rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (4 games in): <1%, 121st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (5 games in): <1%, 121st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 128th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 128th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 126th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 107th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 112th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 113th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 108th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 114th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 114th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 112th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 106th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 109th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 109th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 109th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 126th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): <1%, 123rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): <1%, 118th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 121st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (7 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): <1%, 123rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 121st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 121st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 102nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 103rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 109th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 109th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 85th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 1%, 87th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    6-2, outscoring opponents by 128 · AP-ranked
  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 6 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    $37.5M buyout · 4.2× his pay, a multiple above average in FBS — costly to move on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 6-2 after 8 games
2% pushed out over results · of 389 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 8 games
14% pushed out over results · of 700 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$37,500,000 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 4.2× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 3%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

3%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled59th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    Age 48 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▼ Lower
    Paid $9 million in 2025, the 91st percentile of published FBS head-coach pay
  • ▼ Lower
    A Power Four program · 86th percentile of FBS in program stature last season
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.