Next game: vs Kentucky
Tennessee’s best edge on Kentucky is staying on schedule
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Tennessee offense against Kentucky defense
Kentucky offense against Tennessee defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Manager · +0.29 EPA/play | 12 | 6 | 69 / 103 | 67.0 | 728 | 7.1 | 2 | 3 | 126.9 | 45 | 34.0 | 5.7 | 4.6 | |
Yards by week → Game managerConsistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone. 103 pass attempts and 13 carries in 6 games. Fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. This week's matchup — QB MacIntyre keeps the offense on schedule and doesn't lose the game. Reed is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Completion %69.0% 84th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry-0.1 bottom 13th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View George MacIntyre's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Scrambler · +0.12 EPA/play | 11 | 5 | 61 / 101 | 60.4 | 697 | 6.9 | 7 | 1 | 139.3 | 25 | 47.8 | 6.2 | 12.2 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. 101 pass attempts and 53 carries in 5 games. Fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. This week's matchup — QB Brandon extends plays on the move until something opens up. Reed is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Rush usage34.4% 90th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate1.0% 86th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Faizon Brandon's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.26 EPA/play | 18 | 8 | 171 | 957 #6 FBS | 5.6 | 11 #9 FBS | 59 | 12.8 | 13.4 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Impact starter — 171 carries and 9 catches in 8 games, more touches a game than nearly every FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Bishop does a little of everything without one standout trait. Morrow is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Yards / carry6.1 75th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share5.0% bottom 15th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View DeSean Bishop's full player page | ||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.24 EPA/play | 17 | 8 | 61 | 349 | 5.7 | 2 | 47 | 13.3 | 15 | |
Yards by week → Speed merchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. 61 carries and 6 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Morris hits the crease and outruns the angle. Morrow is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Yards / carry6.4 83th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Daune Morris's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.03 EPA/play | 6 | 4 | 26 | 120 | 4.6 | 0 | 24 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.46 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 34 | 528 #64 FBS | 15.5 | 3 | 57 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 34 catches and 4 carries in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Matthews beats you over the top. Craver is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception16.6 81th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume34 77th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mike Matthews's full player page | ||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.07 EPA/play | 14 | 8 | 32 | 259 | 8.1 | 2 | 35 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. 32 catches in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Staley wins underneath on volume and route precision. Craver is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume32 71th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 9th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Braylon Staley's full player page | ||||||||
| Move TE · +0.60 EPA/play | 7 | 6 | 14 | 181 | 12.9 | 0 | 68 | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. 14 catches and 2 carries in 6 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS tight end who plays every week. This week's matchup — TE Brame creates mismatches lined up all over the formation. Thomas is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception17.6 97th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 13th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dasaahn Brame's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.44 EPA/play | 3 | 7 | 12 | 145 | 12.1 | 0 | 45 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. This week's matchup — WR Jackson beats you over the top. Craver is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception16.8 82th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Radarious Jackson's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.23 EPA/play | 5 | 3 | 6 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 22 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.48 EPA/play | 82 | 4 | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 1 | 17 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 2 | 8 | 26 | 12 | 11.5 #10 FBS | 6 #17 FBS | 9 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — 26 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate44.2% 100th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Xavier Gilliam's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 18 | 8 | 19 | 10 | 8.5 #40 FBS | 7 #7 FBS | 3 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 19 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate44.7% 100th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tyree Weathersby's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 33 | 8 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 2.5 | 2 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate28.6% 89th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jordan Norman's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 9 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 5 #38 FBS | 1 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate54.5% 100th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Mariyon Dye's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 19 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate9.1% bottom 30th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Nathan Robinson's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 5 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | 4 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate22.7% 75th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Daevin Hobbs's full player page | |||||||
| 35 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage 'Backer | — | 8 | 52 | 31 | 21 | 8 #50 FBS | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Starter — 52 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.8% 80th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Amare Campbell's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 7 | 7 | 46 | 25 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 46 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2023 class View Arion Carter's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 22 | 8 | 34 | 12 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 34 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.8% 96th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate8.8% 91th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jeremiah Telander's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 13 | 8 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.0% 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate8.0% 87th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Edwin Spillman's full player page | |||||||||
| 51 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 1 | 8 | 45 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — 45 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume45 87th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View TJ Metcalf's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 10 | 8 | 36 | 4 | 3 #16 FBS | 5 | 2 |
Hybrid nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 36 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.1% 67th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Dejuan Lane's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 4 | 8 | 35 | 9 #4 FBS | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 35 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate25.7% 99th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ty Redmond's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 6 | 7 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 3.5 | 1 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 26 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume26 bottom 34th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Mar'Quavious Moss's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 14 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 2 #51 FBS | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 15th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kayin Lee's full player page | |||||||
| 20 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 28 | 8 | 11/12 | 91.7 | 30/30 | 63 | 49 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinner | 98 | 8 | 32 | 1426 | 44.6 | 57 | 14 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.24 EPA/play | 17 | 8 | 5 | 108 | 21.6 | 0 | 25 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 6 | 7 | 9 | 115 | 12.8 | 1 | 57 |
Biggest plays from Tennessee’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Tennessee’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 1:17 · South Carolina down 7, ties itLanorris Sellers runs 4 yards for a touchdownTennessee at South Carolina, week 8Q4, 1:17 · South Carolina 24, Tennessee 241:17Game-tying touchdown for South Carolina with 1:17 left1:17Game-tying touchdown for South Carolina with 1:17 leftGame-tying touchdown for South Carolina with 1:17 leftL.Sellers rush right for 4 yards gain to the UTK00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was not down by contact". CALL UPHELD, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 0:33 · Tennessee tiedTennessee turns it overTennessee at South Carolina, week 8Q4, 0:33 · Tennessee 24, South Carolina 24▼27%Tennessee’s chance to win, 48% to 21%▼27%Tennessee’s chance to win, 48% to 21%G.MacIntyre sacked for loss of 4 yards to the UTK34 (D.Stewart), fumble by G.MacIntyre recovered by USC T.Durojaiye at UTK34, End Of Play. UTK is challenging the ruling on the field - "Fumble". CALL UPHELD▶Watch from this play
Q4, 5:44 · Tennessee tiedShelton Lewis intercepts George MacIntyre and returns it 11 yardsTennessee at Arkansas, week 6Q4, 5:44 · Tennessee 17, Arkansas 17▼26%Tennessee’s chance to win, 76% to 50%▼26%Tennessee’s chance to win, 76% to 50%G.MacIntyre pass intercepted by S.Lewis at ARK31 QB hurried by C.Harrison S.Lewis return 11 yards to the ARK42, End Of Play▶Watch from this play
Q2, 11:24 · Tennessee breaks the tieDejuan Lane takes an interception 41 yards for a pick-sixTennessee at Georgia Tech, week 2Q2, 11:24 · Tennessee 17, Georgia Tech 1041Pick-six41Pick-sixPick-sixA.Mendoza pass intercepted by D.Lane at GT 41 D.Lane return 41 yards to the GT 00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q3, 5:05 · Tennessee up 2DeSean Bishop runs 5 yards for a touchdownAlabama at Tennessee, week 7Q3, 5:05 · Tennessee 19, Alabama 10▲22%Tennessee’s chance to win, 57% to 79%▲22%Tennessee’s chance to win, 57% to 79%D.Bishop rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BAMA00 touchdown. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 5:15 · Tennessee up 3DeSean Bishop runs 44 yards for a touchdownAuburn at Tennessee, week 5Q3, 5:15 · Tennessee 17, Auburn 7▲18%Tennessee’s chance to win, 75% to 93%▲18%Tennessee’s chance to win, 75% to 93%D.Bishop rush middle for 44 yards gain to the AUBURN00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Tennessee lost at South Carolina after being 92% to win; the closest win was at Arkansas, down to 14%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Tennessee during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Tennessee
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · TennesseeDeSean Bishop leads Tennessee with 957 rushing yards through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+16 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Tennessee fields a strong run-heavy, methodical, ball-control offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Tennessee reads strongest in EPA allowed (top 5%) and passing EPA allowed (top 5%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Tennessee sits at the 9th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Tennessee is worth +6.6 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 88th percentile of 133 programs
66% at home, 47% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (35-18 home, 18-20 away). Interval ±4.8.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Tennessee has beaten the number by +1.6 more at home than away over 99 games. That is inside the ±6.6 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Neyland Stadium seats 102,455 and has averaged 99% full (101,612, 32 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 280 miles trip since 2018, the 27th-shortest of 135 FBS venues. Whatever the band above is picking up, it isn't the flight. 12% of the 2026 roster (13 of 107 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 61 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downBraylon Staley is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- Deep threatChris Brazzell II is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
- UnderdogChris Brazzell II produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
- Garbage timeDeSean Bishop does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps, the production isn't just garbage-time padding.
- CloserDeSean Bishop gets less work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict: not the trusted closer raw carries might suggest.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
DeSean Bishop and Daune Morris split the carries (163/222 vs 59/222) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Mike Matthews (WR) and Dasaahn Brame (TE) split the targets (53/76 vs 23/76) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Tennessee actually scores
45th percentile quality, 42nd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Tennessee’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 78th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 76th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Tennessee hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
75th percentile success on standard downs, 12th on passing downs — a 63-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Tennessee by half
1st-half offense ranks 27th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 78th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Tennessee’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.17; 57th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.57 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Tennessee’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Tennessee’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.3% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 188-play sample) — mid-pack, 70 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Tennessee’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.7% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 195-play sample) — mid-pack, 80 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces have gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 55% recovered, vs. ~48% expected.
6 of 11 forced fumbles recovered; 8 of 15 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Cashing in at a normal clip: 21% of disrupted passes intercepted, close to ~18% league-wide.
8 interceptions of 39 disrupted passes (31 deflected, 8 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The flags have favored them: 67 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 61 committed, 95 yards to the good.
497 penalty yards committed vs. 592 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Tennessee
Most similar programs · TennesseeReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Tennessee’s breakout has happened before — and 2 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 55°, between 45° and 64° in about 7 in 10 games (40 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 66°, and 8 in 10 ran between 40° and 79° (43 road games).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.