Alabama at LSU
LSU (#15, 6‑2) hosts Alabama (#9, 6‑2). The market has LSU favored by 5.5. LSU’s passing offense is at the 89th percentile; Alabama’s pass defense is at the 59th.
This is LSU-Alabama — see the full head-to-head history →
How they got here
Last three games
Alabama · 6-2
Rated 21st in our preseason ratings, 8th now, up 13 spots.
1-2 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Last three games
LSU · 6-2
Rated 31st in our preseason ratings, 6th now, up 25 spots.
2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
W 63-14 vs McNeese No. 212 of 668 teams
won by 49 as a 53.5-point favorite
Biggest mismatch: LSU’s passing EPA against Alabama, 30 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
LSU’s passing EPA against Alabama’s defense
LSU offense, 89th percentile · Alabama defense, 59th
LSU’s explosive plays against Alabama’s defense
LSU offense, 36th percentile · Alabama defense, 21st
Alabama’s success rate against LSU’s defense
Alabama offense, 79th percentile · LSU defense, 95th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
LSU projected #10 seed · Alabama projected #5 seed
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of November 4, 2026
The series
Alabama leads the series 58-26-5
89 meetings since 1902 · Alabama has won the last 3
- 2025Alabama 20-9
- 2024Alabama 42-13
- 2023Alabama 42-28
- 2022LSU 32-31The 2022 game and what was said
- 2021Alabama 20-14
Each line is LSU’s chance to win through that meeting. LSU is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Alabama
The chip · vs the national mediaEvery loss now feeds the same eulogy — that the dynasty died with Saban and DeBoer is presiding over the decline. The fanbase has heard the program written off before, and isn't ready to concede it.
What this game touches
The post-Saban altitude question. Saban retired after 2023; Kalen DeBoer went 9-4, then 11-4, reaching the 2025 Playoff but getting routed 38-3 by eventual champion Indiana in the semifinal — the first real evidence the program might be merely very good rather than supreme.
LSU
The chip · vs the national mediaThe take that LSU is a sleeping giant that keeps hiring wrong — all that talent, all that money, a revolving door of coaches. The fanbase made the boldest bet in the sport that Lane Kiffin is the answer to the joke.
What this game touches
The boom-bust — a title, then a teardown. LSU's championship seasons (the 15-0 2019 team especially) are followed by collapses and firings — Orgeron out two years after a title, Brian Kelly fired in October 2025 the day after a 49-25 home loss to Texas A&M. Greatness here is real but never sustained.
Best players
Alabama
- Caleb Woodson (LB) · 63 tackles
- Luke Metz (LB) · 57 tackles
- Keelon Russell (QB) · 2,057 passing yards — Heisman odds: 9th (+2400)
LSU
- TJ Dottery (LB) · 60 tackles
- Sam Leavitt (QB) · 2,171 passing yards — Heisman odds: 6th (+1500)
- Jackson Harris (WR) · 634 receiving yards
What to watch
Player to watch: Sam Leavitt (QB) — LSU’s leading passer (2,171 passing yards) takes on Alabama’s pass defense (59th percentile allowed).
The spread has moved 2.0 points toward LSU since opening (−3.5 → −5.5).
The total has moved down 2.0 points since opening (54.5 → 52.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
LSU fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (33rd percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
- Model · 53%
- Line · 67%
- LSU fans · 33rd
- Alabama fans · 40th
LSU favored by 5.5 · Total 52.5
LSU by 5.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
LSU’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Tiger Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 96, noon Saturdays 78
Alabama at LSU · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 3:30 pm ET · Tiger Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Tiger Stadium: noon Saturdays score 78, 3:30 pm 81, 7:30 pm 96.
- noon: 78, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 81, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 96, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
LSU is worth +6.8 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 91st percentile.
82% at home, 51% on the road against FBS opponents (42-9 home, 20-19 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.2 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 288 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
LSU
- Wk 4Wvs Texas A&M35-6
- Wk 5Wvs McNeese63-14
- Wk 6Lat Kentucky34-35
- Wk 7Wvs Mississippi State31-0
- Wk 8Wat Auburn38-17
Alabama
- Wk 4Wvs South Carolina49-18
- Wk 5Wat Mississippi State56-23
- Wk 6Lvs Georgia17-20
- Wk 7Lat Tennessee10-26
- Wk 8Wvs Texas A&M31-20
Power rating by week
LSU is rated 0.5 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward LSU.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: −3.5 → −5.5 · Total: 54.5 → 52.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Alabama 20, LSU 9Nov 8, 2025
Our History pages cover 11 of their meetings since 2015.