Next game: at LSU
Alabama’s best edge on LSU is red zone
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Alabama offense against LSU defense
LSU offense against Alabama defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.49 EPA/play | 12 | 8 | 148 / 221 | 67.0 | 2057 #19 FBS | 9.3 | 15 #27 FBS | 5 | 163.0 | 74 | 79.6 | 8.3 | 8.3 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. In the Heisman race — our Heisman model ranks this player #7 right now. This week's matchup — QB Russell operates within the system without forcing anything. Curtis is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Yards / attempt9.8 96th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %68.0% 79th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Keelon Russell's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · +0.07 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 71 | 332 | 4.7 | 4 | 31 | 9.9 | 9.9 | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Starter — 71 carries and 12 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Hill just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Alexander is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Weight234 lb 98th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share14.5% 76th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Daniel Hill's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.10 EPA/play | 17 | 8 | 64 | 324 | 5.1 | 5 | 58 | 17.7 | 12.9 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 64 carries and 6 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2026 class View Trae'shawn Brown's full player page | ||||||||||
| +0.44 EPA/play | 13 | 7 | 32 | 216 | 6.8 | 4 | 39 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.76 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 29 | 488 | 16.8 | 1 | 75 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 29 catches and 3 carries in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Brooks moves the chains on third down. Thomas is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception15.5 72th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 81th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Lotzeir Brooks's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.52 EPA/play | 7 | 8 | 28 | 434 | 15.5 | 3 | 48 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 28 catches and 3 carries in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Scott beats you over the top. Thomas is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception16.6 81th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Rico Scott's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.75 EPA/play | 1 | 6 | 23 | 415 | 18.0 | 4 #70 FBS | 58 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 23 catches and 2 carries in 6 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Williams beats you over the top. Thomas is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception18.3 91th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate17.4% 90th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ryan Williams's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +1.00 EPA/play | 9 | 7 | 18 | 237 | 13.2 | 2 | 38 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 18 catches and 2 carries in 7 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS tight end who plays every week. This week's matchup — TE Pritchett shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Spence is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception7.6 bottom 18th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.0 93th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Marshall Pritchett's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +1.06 EPA/play | 81 | 7 | 14 | 172 | 12.3 | 2 | 32 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 14 catches in 7 games. Fewer catches a game than most FBS tight ends who play every week. This week's matchup — TE Edwards shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Spence is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception11.4 55th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.1 94th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kaleb Edwards's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.37 EPA/play | 30 | 3 | 6 | 70 | 11.7 | 0 | 31 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 1 | 7 | 31 | 13 | 4.5 | 3 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — 31 tackles in 7 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate14.5% bottom 48th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Devan Thompkins's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 22 | 8 | 22 | 7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 22 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Kedrick Bingley-Jones's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 90 | 7 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 20 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View London Simmons's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2.5 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate36.4% 97th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Terrance Green's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 14 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate50.0% 100th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Fatutoa Henry's full player page | |||||||
| 88 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 94 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 7 | 8 | 63 | 29 | 34 | 4.5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 63 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume63 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate7.1% bottom 40th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Caleb Woodson's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 4 | 8 | 57 | 20 | 37 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 57 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2025 class View Luke Metz's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 36 | 7 | 27 | 9 | 18 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View QB Reese's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | — | 8 | 26 | 11 | 15 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4 | 1 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate17.3% 90th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate15.4% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Yhonzae Pierre's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 11 | 5 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 5-star, 2026 class View Xavier Griffin's full player page | |||||||||
| 20 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 18 | 8 | 42 | 2 | 2 #51 FBS | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — 42 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.8% bottom 35th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Brayson Hubbard's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 2 #51 FBS | 2 | 0.5 |
Hybrid nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 26 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2024 class View Rydarrius Morgan's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 5 | 8 | 25 | 2 | 2 #51 FBS | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.0% 51th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Dijon Lee Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Keon Sabb's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 2 | 7 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate21.1% 96th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Zabien Brown's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 28 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.3% bottom 37th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Carmelo O'neal's full player page | |||||||
| 19 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 2 #51 FBS | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 31 | 8 | 11/13 | 84.6 | 36/36 | 69 | 47 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinner | 32 | 8 | 26 | 1132 | 43.5 | 54 | 13 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 5 | 8 | 8 | 218 | 27.3 | 0 | 47 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.75 EPA/play | 1 | 6 | 7 | 53 | 7.6 | 0 | 23 |
Biggest plays from Alabama’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Alabama’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q1, 6:35 · Alabama down 7, ties itLuke Metz takes an interception 34 yards for a pick-sixAlabama at Kentucky, week 2Q1, 6:35 · Alabama 7, Kentucky 734Pick-six34Pick-sixPick-sixK.Minchey pass intercepted by L.Metz at UK34 L.Metz return 34 yards to the UK00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this playSEC
Q3, 5:05 · Tennessee up 2DeSean Bishop runs 5 yards for a touchdownAlabama at Tennessee, week 7Q3, 5:05 · Tennessee 19, Alabama 10▲22%Tennessee’s chance to win, 57% to 79%▲22%Tennessee’s chance to win, 57% to 79%D.Bishop rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BAMA00 touchdown. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q1, 10:11 · Kentucky tiedMi'Quise Grace takes an interception 2 yards for a pick-sixAlabama at Kentucky, week 2Q1, 10:11 · Kentucky 7, Alabama 02Pick-six2Pick-sixPick-sixK.Russell pass intercepted by M.Humphrey-Grace at ALA02 M.Humphrey-Grace return 2 yards to the ALA00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this playSEC- Q1, 13:20 · Mississippi State tiedMississippi State turns it overAlabama at Mississippi State, week 5Q1, 13:20 · Mississippi State 0, Alabama 07Mississippi State’s turnover led to a touchdown7Mississippi State’s turnover led to a touchdownMississippi State’s turnover led to a touchdownK.Taylor sacked for loss of 9 yards to the State48 (L.Simmons), fumble by K.Taylor recovered by Bama L.Simmons at State48, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELD▶Watch from this play
Q2, 7:09 · Georgia up 3Gunner Stockton finds London Humphreys for a 20-yard touchdownGeorgia at Alabama, week 6Q2, 7:09 · Georgia 10, Alabama 093Capped a 93-yard drive93Capped a 93-yard driveCapped a 93-yard driveG.Stockton pass complete deep middle to L.Humphreys caught at ALA00, for 20 yards to the ALA00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q4, 14:55 · Alabama down 3, takes the leadKeelon Russell finds Marshall Pritchett for a 5-yard touchdownTexas A&M at Alabama, week 8Q4, 14:55 · Alabama 24, Texas A&M 20Go-ahead touchdown for Alabama in the fourth quarterGo-ahead touchdown for Alabama in the fourth quarterK.Russell pass complete short middle to M.Pritchett caught at TAM00, for 5 yards to the TAM00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Alabama lost to Georgia after being 75% to win; the closest win was against Florida State, down to 17%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Alabama during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Alabama
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · AlabamaCaleb Woodson leads Alabama with 63 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+21 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Alabama fields an elite offense behind an elite defense, though it gives up the big play.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Alabama reads strongest in rushing EPA allowed (top 5%) and field position (O) (top 10%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Alabama sits at the 20th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Alabama is worth +6.0 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 82nd percentile of 133 programs
92% at home, 78% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (48-4 home, 32-9 away). Interval ±3.8.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Alabama has beaten the number by +2.6 more at home than away over 100 games. That is inside the ±6.0 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Bryant-Denny Stadium seats 101,821 and has averaged 98% full (99,844, 33 games reported). Visitors cover a median 280 miles to get here since 2018 — 28th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 24% of the 2026 roster (29 of 123 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 59 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Garbage timeGermie Bernard sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
- Deep threatJosh Cuevas is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatLotzeir Brooks is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Daniel Hill and Trae'shawn Brown split the carries (68/130 vs 62/130) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Rico Scott (WR) and Marshall Pritchett (TE) split the targets (44/62 vs 18/62) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Marshall Pritchett produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Alabama actually scores
82nd percentile quality, 22nd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Alabama’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 97th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 91st — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Alabama hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
77th percentile success on standard downs, 57th on passing downs — a 20-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Alabama by half
1st-half offense ranks 72nd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 90th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Alabama’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.25; 82nd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.08. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.29 raw vs. 0.02 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Alabama’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Alabama’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (69.6% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 160-play sample) — mid-pack, 111 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Alabama’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.8% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 184-play sample) — mid-pack, 56 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
22% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~52% league baseline.
2 of 9 own fumbles recovered themselves; 7 of 17 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
35% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — running hot vs. the ~18% league average.
12 interceptions of 34 disrupted passes (22 deflected, 12 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
57 penalties committed, 55 drawn on opponents — netting a 49-yard field-position edge.
412 penalty yards committed vs. 461 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Alabama
Most similar programs · AlabamaReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Alabama’s slide has precedent — and 3 of the 4 closest kept falling.
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Usual during the game around Nov 21: 56°, between 45° and 69° in about 7 in 10 games (27 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 67°, and 8 in 10 ran between 50° and 82° (45 of 46 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.