The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Steve Addazio

Followed Mike Bobo. Steve Addazio held Colorado State at Regional Program III for 2 seasons.

Peak, then fade
61–67
2011–2021 · 3 stints
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 3rd career season — faster than 25% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #454 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Temple, 2 seasons
+4.7
Regional Program II → Regional Program II.
Boston College, 7 seasons
−3.0
National Program II → National Program III.
Colorado State, 2 seasons
−1.1
Regional Program III → Regional Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

30%40%Boston College2013–2019▲ 4.0ptColorado State2020–2021– 0.2pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Boston College10.0pt#133 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

1–1 against his rivals. Winless in 7 tries against Dabo Swinney.

Rivalry record
1–1
50.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
16–24
40.0% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Wyoming1–150%
The toughest matchup
vs. Dabo Swinney0–7
7 meetings, 2013–2019
’13 L’14 L · blew a 3-pt lead’15 L · blew a 7-pt lead’16 L · blew a 3-pt lead’17 L’18 L · blew a 4-pt lead’19 L
0% win rate across a real, 7-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–1 0.0%
Blue Blood
1–8 11.1%
Power Program
7–20 25.9%
National Program
12–16 42.9%
Regional Program
29–19 60.4%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.54
#308 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.50
#12 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2020–2021
Colorado Statecaretaker
Regional Program III → Regional Program III
Steve Addazio held Colorado State at Regional Program III for 2 seasons.

11th-best Colorado State tenure of 18 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-18.0 pts
#172 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
+11.0 pts
#63 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Mike Bobo (2015–2019) · succeeded by Jay Norvell (2022–2025).

Season20202021Trend
Record & result
Record1–33–9
Postseason
Recruiting rank#102#88
Style — pass rate
Pass rate43.243.5
Coordinators
OCJoey LynchJon Budmayr
DCChuck HeaterChuck Heater
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense1240
Defense7833
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%34.042.0
Red-zone pass%30.040.0
4th-down go%opp. territory33.332.7
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
6
2.7★ avg rating
Portal departures
13
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-7
#160 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 269 lbs
across 4 of 6 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+23.5 lbs
#1 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#7 of 255 · more than most
Top states: MD (1), MA (1), CO (1), GA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
19.1
position-weighted
Talent lost
42.7
position-weighted
Net
-23.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Trey McBride (TE) from Colorado State
Biggest loss: Luke McAllister (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Joey Lynch → Jon Budmayr · 2021
12th pct40th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 34.0% → 42.0% (+8.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 55% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
227 lbs
6′1″ avg · #55 of 767 · more than most
Running back
216 lbs
5′11″ avg · #110 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
185 lbs
5′10″ avg · #695 of 791 · less than most
Tight end
257 lbs
6′4″ avg · #44 of 731 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
298 lbs
6′3″ avg · #721 of 779 · less than most
D-line
274 lbs
6′2″ avg · #600 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
220 lbs
6′1″ avg · #686 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
184 lbs
5′11″ avg · #651 of 771 · less than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
75%
#165 of 208 stints
Grows D-line from high school
80%
#186 of 239 stints

1 NFL Draft pick: Trey McBride (2022)

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Trey McBride (2021)

4–12
2013–2019
Boston Collegecaretaker
National Program II → National Program II
Steve Addazio held Boston College at National Program II for 7 seasons.

15th-best Boston College tenure of 18 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-29.9 pts
#198 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
+25.3 pts
#18 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Frank Spaziani (2009–2012) · succeeded by Jeff Hafley (2020–2023).

Season2013201420152016201720182019Trend
Record & result
Record7–67–63–97–67–67–56–6
PostseasonL bowlW bowlL bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#51#60#78#67#71#63
Style — pass rate
Pass rate27.733.234.337.337.731.6
Coordinators
OCRyan DayTodd FitchScot LoefflerScot LoefflerScot LoefflerMike Bajakian
DCDon BrownDon BrownJim ReidJim ReidJim Reid / Anthony CampanileBill Sheridan
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense6561331052
Defense6010092908017
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%20.624.430.823.928.724.8
Red-zone pass%14.720.027.525.428.423.7
4th-down go%opp. territory35.622.233.331.553.847.2
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Ryan Day → Todd Fitch · 2015
65th pct6th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 20.6% → 24.4% (+3.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 18% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Todd Fitch → Scot Loeffler · 2016
6th pct1st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 24.4% → 30.8% (+6.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 92% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Scot Loeffler → Mike Bajakian · 2019
10th pct52nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 28.7% → 24.8% (-3.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 67% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Don Brown → co-Jim Reid · 2016the system held
80th pct91st pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: co-Jim Reid → co-Jim Reid / co-Anthony Campanile · 2018
90th pct80th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: co-Jim Reid / co-Anthony Campanile → Bill Sheridan · 2019
80th pct17th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Penn State 30–31 New Era Pinstripe Bowl2016: Beat Maryland 36–30 Quick Lane Bowl2017: Lost to Iowa 20–27 New Era Pinstripe Bowl2019: Lost to Cincinnati 6–38 Ticketsmarter Birmingham Bowl

19 NFL Draft picks: Andre Williams (2014), Kevin Pierre-Louis (2014), Nate Freese (2014), Kaleb Ramsey (2014), Ian Silberman (2015), Andy Gallik (2015), Brian Mihalik (2015), Justin Simmons (2016) + 11 more

44–44
2011–2012
Templecaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program II
Steve Addazio moved Temple from Regional Program IV to Regional Program II in 2 seasons.

11th-best Temple tenure of 18 by the numbers.

Followed Al Golden (2006–2010) · succeeded by Matt Rhule (2013–2016).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
100%
#198 of 224 stints

5 NFL Draft picks: Muhammad Wilkerson (2011), Jaiquawn Jarrett (2011), Bernard Pierce (2012), Evan Rodriguez (2012), Tahir Whitehead (2012)

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