No game this week · at East Carolina, Sat Oct 31, 12 am ET · ECUEast Carolina is 3-4 · Keeler vs. Blake Harrell: 0-1 · Temple’s chance to win: 35% (the site’s model)
If Temple wins: 9%, 50th of 137
Now: 12%
If Temple loses: 13%, 34th of 137
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.
Is he getting fired?
12%chance he’s out after the season · 39th of 137 FBS head coaches · Warm
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.
If he finishes…
Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out
2-1020%
3-913%
4-89%
5-76%
6-63%
Why his number is where it is
Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.
Now hotter than at this point in 2025.
His hot seat, week by week
The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.
← swipe for earlier seasons
Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.
What drives his number
The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.
▲ Hotter
2-5, outscored by 16
▲ Hotter
5-7 over his previous season here
▼ Cooler
Year 2· tenure, which this model overrates(why?)
Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.
What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025
A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.
Were 2-5 after 7 games
19% pushed out over results · of 339 coaches
Were in year 2, after 7 games
5% pushed out over results · of 473 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.
How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.
Would anyone be interested in starting a Furry Club? I made a discord to gauge interest. Feel free to join if you feel so inclined.
What's going on y'all! I'm a Temple student and I'm having a women-centric show at a cafe close to Temple on Saturday, November 7! Will also be partnering with a nonprofit women's organizations to collect donations for women's products to give to women in the Philly community! Come thru and support!
How to apply Photography Major? I am trying to apply for fall 27 as first year student and major in photography. On the common app none of the BFA have a photography option even though it’s a major according to the Tyler website. Can anyone help?
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
Offense: 50th of 138 per play. Defense: 123rd.
Through 7 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Temple. The other two rows are where Temple stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.
5 games left
Sat Oct 31at ECUEast Carolina (3-4)35%
Sat Nov 7at NAVYNavy (2-4)CBS Sports Network24%
Sat Nov 14vs. UABUAB (4-3)41%
Thu Nov 19vs. RICERice (1-6)70%
Fri Nov 27at MEMMemphis (6-2)21%
Percent: Temple’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where Temple stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
Oct 12–18L 31-38 vs. CLTCharlotte2 headlines · 74th of 138
Oct 5–11L 20-34 vs. CONNUConn1 headline · 83rd of 138
Sep 28–Oct 4W 17-13 at USFSouth Florida0 headlines
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2023). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.
Hired into 11–12, Regional Program IV. Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
Of the 5 closest comps, 2 left the program higher than he found it and 3 left it lower. Median stay: 3 seasons; 1 left mid-season.
Every coach hired into a Regional Program IV job since 1990 (89): typically -0.9 after year 1, -1.3 after year 2.
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
+4.1 pts
#91 of 208 · middle half
Defense vs. talent
-33.2 pts
#200 of 208 · bottom quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Who they bring in
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 234 lbs
across 37 of 47 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+2.8 lbs
#175 of 255 · middle half
Avg. class year
So
#248 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.0★
rated arrivals only
Top states: NJ (10), PA (6), OH (3), CA (3), NY (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
53.2
position-weighted
Talent lost
52.5
position-weighted
Net
+0.7
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Gevani McCoy (QB) from Texas State
Biggest loss: Chris Dietrich (QB) to Bucknell
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Linebacker via the portal
86%
#2 of 225 stints
Buys Tackle via the portal
67%
#21 of 223 stints
AI Narratives — “Temple — stat check”.
7-12
2023–2024
Sam HoustonSteady
Regional Program IV
K.C. Keeler held Sam Houston at Regional Program IV for 2 seasons.
Succeeded by Phil Longo (2025–now).
System Shift, on departure
Season
2023
2024
Trend
Record & result
Record
3-9
9-3
Postseason
—
—
Coordinators
OC
Brad Cornelsen
Brad Cornelsen
DC
Clayton Carlin / Joe Morris
Skyler Cassity
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
23
9
Defense
47
87
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
49.5
38.1
Red-zone pass%
45.8
23.4
4th-down go%opp. territory
36.6
28.6
Recruiter or developer?
Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
-18.7 pts
#175 of 208 · bottom quarter
Defense vs. talent
+30.5 pts
#9 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era
Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.
Portal arrivals
17
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
6
left via the portal
Net portal flow
+11
#141 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 255 lbs
across 11 of 17 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+5.6 lbs
#87 of 255 · middle half
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · top quarter
Top states: TX (6), VA (1), NM (1), IL (1), PA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
40.3
position-weighted
Talent lost
24.1
position-weighted
Net
+16.2
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Jase Bauer (QB) from Central Michigan
Biggest loss: Xavier Ward (QB) to San José State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Quarterback via the portal
67%
#16 of 206 stints
Buys D-line via the portal
75%
#18 of 239 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
100%
#198 of 224 stints
Grows Wide receiver from high school
100%
#230 of 243 stints
12-12
Big games
Pick a job to see its years on their own.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
One-score games
7-5
58.3% · margin ≤8
Against the spread
12-11-1
+0.9 pts a game vs. the line
all 24 had a line
Performance by opponent class
National Program
0-4 0.0%ATS —
Regional Program
11-8 57.9%ATS 10-8-1 19 of 19
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
One-score games
3-5
37.5% · margin ≤8
Against the spread
11-7-1
all 19 had a line
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
0-2 0.0%
National Program
2-4 33.3%
Regional Program
3-6 33.3%
Signature games
0-5 vs. AP top 25 · 0-0 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’25’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WUT
UTSA · 2025
27-21
UpsetQuality opponent
WUS
South Florida · 2026
17-13
UpsetQuality opponent
WCL
Charlotte · 2025
49-14
Quality opponent
Signature losses
LCL
Charlotte · 2026
31-38
Upset
LOU
Oklahoma · 2025
3-42
LEC
East Carolina · 2025
14-45
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
One-score games
10-10
50.0% · margin ≤8
Against the spread
23-18-2
+1.2 pts a game vs. the line
all 43 had a line
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
0-2 0.0%ATS —
National Program
2-8 20.0%ATS 7-3 10 of 10
Regional Program
14-14 50.0%ATS 13-13-2 28 of 28
Signature games
0-5 vs. AP top 25 · 0-0 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’25’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WRI
Rice · 2024
34-14
UpsetQuality opponent
WLT
Louisiana Tech · 2023
42-27
UpsetQuality opponent
WUT
UTSA · 2025
27-21
UpsetQuality opponent
Signature losses
LCL
Charlotte · 2026
31-38
Upset
LUC
UCF · 2024
14-45
LHO
Houston · 2023
7-38
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
How he plays
Run/pass mix, by field position
Called about what the situation called for.
699 run and pass snaps at Temple, 2025–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
passed moreran morewithin noise (95% range includes 0)
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered season
How good is he so far?
Too new to grade — in-season movement only
Temple’s composite stature has risen since preseason: 11.9 entering the year to 12.5 through week 8 (Regional Program IV) · #84 of 138 in movement since preseason · middle half.
Part four · How he builds a team
Four numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His one ranked Temple class of his own finished #68 nationally.
SHSam Houston
2023
#95
His class
2024
#124
His class
TETemple
2025
#123
Transition
2026
#68
His class
Across every program: 3 ranked classes of his own, averaging #96 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Followed him here
SHSam Houston→TETemple2025
No confirmed followers on this move.
Players who transferred from his old program to his new one through the portal in the same year he made the move. Name-matching across data sources misses some, so every count is a floor, not an exact number.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
74%His own players
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 88 of 119 players. The other 31 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Arrived under him 88Inherited 31
Of his own players on this roster, 28% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
Everyone he has brought in, 2025–2026Counting players who have since left: 34% of the 107 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Where he recruits
PATop state
is his biggest recruiting state: 14 of 51 signees (27%) across his 2025–2026 tenure, drawn from 13 states in all. Next: MD (10).
Where his signees came from, 2025–2026 (51 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)
67% of his signees come from PA and its 6 border states (MD 10, NJ 6, NY 2, DE 1, OH 1).
Off this map: 2 signees to the west (AR, MS).
By region
South
25
Northeast
24
Midwest
1
Roster distance from campus (Lincoln Financial Field, PA)
median hometown distance
96 mi
within 100 mi
51%
within 500 mi
78%
beyond 1,000 mi
9%
107 of 119 roster players with a known hometown (90% coverage)
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
Sam Houston
