Bowls and playoffs: 1-0
2025Las Vegas BowlW 44-22
As of Fri Oct 23
Sat Oct 24, 10:15 pm ET 
· No. 14 Houston is 6-1 · First meeting between Scalley and Willie Fritz as head coaches · Utah’s chance to win: 46% (the site’s model)
CBS SportsRanking college football's best coaches-in-waiting: Where Utah's Morgan Scalley fitsWed Oct 21
Sports IllustratedUtah Coach Morgan Scalley Makes Unusual Admission After Beating ColoradoSun Oct 18
247SportsMorgan Scalley's Houston Press ConferenceMon Oct 19
RoundtableUtah's Morgan Scalley Named to National Coach of the Year Watch ListThu Oct 22
University of Utah AthleticsMorgan Scalley Named to Paul “Bear” Bryant Award Watch ListWed Oct 21University of Utah AthleticsMorgan Scalley Weekly Press Conference: HoustonMon Oct 19
Locked OnUtah Utes need to expose Houston Cougars Weakness | Morgan Scalley vs Willie Fritz Big 12 BoutWed Oct 21Locked OnUtah Utes nealy blow Lead vs Colorado Buffs | Bad Clock Management by Morgan Scalley?Sun Oct 18I love Utah. I’m glad for a balanced take 😊
Well done, App State. That was a blast to watch, midweek football for the win Getting too cute on offense will lose you the game (looking at you, Utah coaching staff)
The late kick favors Utah
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
46%
95%Percent: Utah’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
Where Utah stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
247Sports
The Salt Lake Tribune
5NEWS
Deseret NewsDeseret News
ESPNEach week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Watch the biggest plays from Utah’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.
Sat Oct 24: Houston
45th of 100 FBS head coaches · from 8 outlets and r/CFB
Morgan Scalley and Utah football focus on second half of 2026 season
Roundtable +1 Oct 17 · 2 outlets
247Sports +1Morgan Scalley Weekly Press Conference: HoustonOct 19
On3Everything Morgan Scalley Said After Practice On TuesdayOct 20University of Utah AthleticsMorgan Scalley Named to Paul “Bear” Bryant Award Watch ListOct 21RoundtableUtah's Morgan Scalley Named to National Coach of the Year Watch ListOct 22from 24 outlets and r/CFB
Morgan Scalley and Utah football focus on second half of 2026 season
Roundtable +1 Oct 17 · 2 outlets
KSL SportsA day in the life of Morgan Scalley, and what it says about his vision for Utah footballAug 3247Sports +2Morgan Scalley Utah State Press ConferenceSep 14Deseret News +1Morgan Scalley just wrapped up his first fall camp as the Utes’ head coach. Here are the takeawaysAug 25Roundtable +1Utah's Morgan Scalley provides update on Utah State’s Harrison Taggart after hospital visitSep 23Deseret NewsBig 12 team preview: Can Utah start Morgan Scalley era with a bang?Aug 2247SportsMorgan Scalley Fall Camp Week Three Media ScrumAug 17247SportsMorgan Scalley Feels Fall Camp was a Success for the UtesAug 25The Salt Lake TribuneWhy Utah football’s offense could look a little different under Morgan ScalleyAug 5
The Mercury NewsUtah coach Morgan Scalley’s unique seat heat can be traced to a series of external forcesAug 28Deseret NewsMorgan Scalley dishes on home head coaching debut, team health and administrative supportAug 31KSL SportsUtah at Iowa State: Why the Utes & Morgan Scalley Deserve More Respect | DJ & PKSep 23Deseret NewsWhat Morgan Scalley said about Harrison Taggart and restarting play after scary injurySep 19On3OL Play, Injury Updates and More From Morgan Scalley's PresserSep 21The Salt Lake TribuneMorgan Scalley shares positive injury update on Utah football offensive linemanOct 12
Heartland College SportsWatch: Utah’s Morgan Scalley is Tuning In For BYU’s Big Night Out With Notre DameOct 15The Salt Lake TribuneRout 66: No. 21 Utah cruises by Idaho 66-14 in Morgan Scalley’s first home game as head coachSep 4
Daily Utah ChronicleUtah Throttles Idaho 66-14 in Morgan Scalley’s Home DebutSep 5ESPN'No one's going to want to win more': Will Morgan Scalley be the answer for Utah?Sep 11Locked OnMorgan Scalley, Utah Utes will shut down Iowa State Cyclones | Jimmy Rodgers Eyes UpsetSep 25Could another school hire him? What has he said?
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Oct 23.
Coach Scalley was tremendous. I mean, he was an unbelievable relationship builder, energy, detailed
Obviously, Morgan Scalley isn’t going to flip everything upside down in Salt Lake. This guy is a Utah lifer. He’s been in that building his whole career. Morgan’s a hell of a football coach. They’re still going to be aggressive on defense. They’re still going to be good on the offensive line, and now is a chance for him to put this program in his image.
This extraordinary commitment by Morgan and Liz Scalley speaks to everything that makes them special and demonstrates their absolute love for the University of Utah
Credit to Coach Sanders and Colorado for the way they competed and fought
So I had him come to us, and on his own dime he flew out, showed up on campus in a suit and tie and left without an offer
Hired into 50–51, Power Program II. Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
This season
Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.
His first rated season here.
The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.
He took over during the 2025 season (1 game); that year is unrated, since each season counts against whoever started it.
The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.
Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.
A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.
How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.
This winter
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
Followed Kyle Whittingham (2004–2025).
| Season | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||
| Record | 1-0 | 6-0 | |
| Postseason | W bowl | — | |
| Coordinators | |||
| OC | Jason Beck | Kevin McGiven | |
| DC | Morgan Scalley | Colton Swan | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||
| Offense | 97 | 82 | |
| Defense | 66 | 73 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | |||
| 1st-down pass% | 37.1 | 46.1 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 27.6 | 38.6 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 46.4 | 35.7 | |
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): John Henry Daley (2025), Spencer Fano (2025)
AI Narratives — “Utah's Offseason Moves and 2025 Outlook” and 3 more on the team page.
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
1-0 against his rivals.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Passed more than the situation called for under Beck.
74 run and pass snaps at Utah, 2025–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Three numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
No class below is fully his yet — every one was inherited or signed mid-transition, so none counts toward a verdict.
Transition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 48 of 114 players. The other 66 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Of his own players on this roster, 27% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
Everyone he has brought in, 2025–2026Counting players who have since left: 27% of the 48 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
is his biggest recruiting state: 12 of 46 signees (26%) across his 2025–2026 tenure, drawn from 17 states in all. Next: TX (9).
43% of his signees come from UT and its 5 border states (NV 3, AZ 2, ID 2, CO 1).
Off this map: 2 signees to the east (GA, MI) and 1 to the north (WA).
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
