Ricky Rahne

Head coach · Old Dominion
6th season · since 2020

At Old Dominion32-40since 2020 · 2-7 this seasonHot seatBoiling49% · 4th of 132 jobsLast gameL 23-36vs Marshall · Oct 31Nextat Coastal CarolinaSat Nov 7 · 1 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

2-7, lost 3 straight, on track for 3-9 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianOld DominionLibertyLibertyJames MadisonJames MadisonNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelOld Dominion when he took over: 12.9 (Regional Program IV), its final 2019 readingtook overOld Dominion, 2021: 6-7, Regional Program IVOld Dominion, 2021: 6-7, Regional Program IV20216-7Old Dominion, 2022: 3-9, Regional Program IV20223-9Old Dominion, 2023: 6-7, Regional Program IV20236-7Old Dominion, 2024: 5-7, Regional Program IV20245-7Old Dominion, 2025: 10-3, Regional Program II202510-3Old Dominion, 2026: 2-7, Regional Program IIOld Dominion, 2026: 2-7, Regional Program II20262-7+5.0best: 2025gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 1-2

2021Myrtle Beach BowlL 17-302023Famous Toastery BowlL 35-382025Cure BowlW 24-10

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 23-36 vs. Marshall Sat Oct 31
  • This season2-7 lost 3 straight
  • Hot seat49% 4th of 132
  • On track for3-9 regular season
  • Nextat Coastal Carolina Sat Nov 7
  • Stature101st of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 43%. Lose and he’s at 48%.

at Coastal Carolina, Sat Nov 7, 1 pm ET ESPN+ · Coastal Carolina is 3-5 · First meeting between Rahne and Ryan Beard as head coaches · Old Dominion’s chance to win: 29% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Old Dominion wins: 43%, 5th of 132Now: 49%If Old Dominion loses: 48%, 4th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Old Dominion wins: 43%, 5th of 132
  • Now: 49%
  • If Old Dominion loses: 48%, 4th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

49% chance he’s out after the season · 4th of 132 FBS head coaches · Boiling

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow40% had they won40% had they wonLoss 48%Win 43%12%15%22%31%39%47%37%40%46%49%Pre1W vs. Norfolk StateW2L at Virginia TechL3L vs. East CarolinaL4L vs. James MadisonL5L at Georgia StateL6W at App StateW7L vs. Georgia SouthernL8L at Louisiana TechL9L vs. MarshallL10Chance to win at Coastal Carolina29%11Chance to win at UConn16%12Chance to win vs. Southern Miss36%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow40% had they wonLoss 48%Win 43%12%49%Pre36912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 2-1050%
  2. 3-945%
  3. 4-837%
  4. 5-728%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now hotter than at this point in any of his five finished seasons here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2021202220232024202520262021, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2021, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 85th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 5 (5 games in): 3%, 82nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 6 (6 games in): 3%, 78th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 7 (7 games in): 4%, 79th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 8 (7 games in): 4%, 77th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2022, week 3 (3 games in): 8%, 54th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 7%, 54th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 7%, 53rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (5 games in): 7%, 55th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (6 games in): 5%, 61st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (7 games in): 7%, 55th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): 8%, 52nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 11%, 45th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 12%, 36th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): 12%, 36th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): 12%, 35th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 12%, 35th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 12%, 35th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 26%, 15th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 22%, 24th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 22%, 21st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 18%, 30th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): 18%, 27th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): 14%, 36th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 14%, 35th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 16%, 32nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 16%, 31st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 12%, 38th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 10%, 38th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 10%, 38th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 10%, 38th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 46%, 3rd-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (3 games in): 46%, 3rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 40%, 7th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 41%, 7th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 33%, 16th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 25%, 20th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 22%, 20th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 24%, 19th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 24%, 19th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 27%, 18th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 30%, 15th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 25%, 19th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 25%, 19th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 25%, 19th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 17%, 23rd-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (3 games in): 17%, 30th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 12%, 39th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 10%, 38th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 14%, 36th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 17%, 30th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 13%, 35th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 9.5%, 41st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 9.5%, 41st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 8%, 46th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 6%, 50th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 5%, 49th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 5%, 49th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 5%, 49th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 31%, 9th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 39%, 7th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 47%, 6th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 37%, 7th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 42%, 7th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 46%, 6th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (9 games in): 48%, 5th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (9 games in): 49%, 4th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 10▲ 2-7, outscored by 103

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    2-7, outscored by 103
  • ▲ Hotter
    $688K buyout · 0.8× his pay, a multiple among the smallest in FBS — cheap to move on
  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 6 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 2-7 after 9 games
19% pushed out over results · of 218 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 9 games
13% pushed out over results · of 695 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$687,886 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 0.8× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 32%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

His week

Kick six’ in loss to Marshall was ‘100% on me”

ODU’s Ricky Rahne

The Virginian-Pilot headline · Mon Nov 2

A few headlines named him in the last 7 days

78th of 138 FBS head coaches

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from a few outlets

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 138th of 138 per play. Defense: 22nd.

Offense, per play138thRunning offense138thDefense, per play22ndDefense, opponents' starting field position138thWorstBest
Offense, per play138th of 138Running offense138th of 138Defense, per play22nd of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position138th of 138WorstBest
Through 9 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Old Dominion. The other two rows are where Old Dominion stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

3 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Coastal Carolina (3-5)ESPN+29%
  2. Sat Nov 21at UConn (4-4)CBS Sports Network16%
  3. Sat Nov 28vs. Southern Miss (3-5)36%

Percent: Old Dominion’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Old Dominion stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

89th96th103rdPreseason92ndNorfolk State W 31-10Norfolk State W 31-10W 31-10Norfolk State92ndVirginia Tech L 21-44Virginia Tech L 21-44L 21-44Virginia Tech92ndEast Carolina L 17-20East Carolina L 17-20L 17-20East Carolina92ndJames Madison L 20-46James Madison L 20-46L 20-46James Madison92ndGeorgia State L 10-42Georgia State L 10-42L 10-42Georgia State93rdApp State W 10-3App State W 10-3W 10-3App State95thGeorgia Southern L 15-23Georgia Southern L 15-23L 15-23Georgia South…96thLouisiana Tech L 0-26Louisiana Tech L 0-26L 0-26Louisiana Tech98thMarshall L 23-36Marshall L 23-36L 23-36Marshall100th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 23-36 vs. Marshall2 headlines · 77th of 138
  2. Oct 19–25L 0-26 at Louisiana Tech1 headline · 81st of 138
  3. Oct 12–18L 15-23 vs. Georgia Southern3 headlines · 64th of 138
  4. Oct 5–11W 10-3 at App State3 headlines · 63rd of 138ODU ends 4-game skid with win at App State, Ricky Rahne celebrates with shirtless slide through the mud The Virginian-Pilot
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 10-42 at Georgia State1 headline · 82nd of 138
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 20-46 vs. James Madison1 headline · 83rd of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Old Dominion’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Below the median on both sides of the ball — 48th percentile offense, 39th percentile defense.

Old Dominion, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

C+
of which —48th
efficiency — 48th percentile success rate, 2021–25
C+47th
Standard-downs success
B-53rd
Passing-downs success
B64th
Trench push (line yards)
C+47th
Red-zone scoring rate
D26th
Power-success (short yardage)
D26th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

C-
of which —39th
39th percentile SP+ defense, 2020–25
B+70th
Front-7 havoc
B63rd
Secondary havoc
C+48th
Stuff rate (run defense)
B63rd
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.