The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Ricky Rahne

Followed Bobby Wilder. Ricky Rahne moved Old Dominion from Regional Program IV to Regional Program II in 6 seasons.

30–33

2020–now · 1 stint

Old Dominion

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In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Old Dominion, 6 seasons (active)

+5.0

Regional Program IV → Regional Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Old Dominion25.6pt#2 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

1–5 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Charles Huff.

Rivalry record

1–5

16.7% · 2 rivals

One-score games

12–15

44.4% · margin ≤8

Buyout owed

$687,886

bigger than 2% of FBS buyouts

Rivalry ledger

Liberty1–233%

James Madison0–30%

The toughest matchup

vs. Charles Huff0–4

4 meetings, 2021–2024

’21 L · blew a 7-pt lead’22 L’23 L · blew a 18-pt lead’24 L · blew a 1-pt lead

0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Power Program

0–2 0.0%

National Program

4–11 26.7%

Regional Program

18–18 50.0%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

+0.25

#69 of 319 · more than most

Defense marginal impact

+0.27

#43 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2020–now

Old Dominioncaretaker

Regional Program IV → Regional Program II

Ricky Rahne moved Old Dominion from Regional Program IV to Regional Program II in 6 seasons.

2nd-best Old Dominion tenure of 2 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

+14.4 pts

#50 of 208 · more than most

Defense vs. talent

+26.5 pts

#15 of 208 · more than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Bobby Wilder (2014–2019).

Season	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	0–0	6–7	3–9	6–7	5–7	10–3	0–0
Postseason	—	L bowl	—	L bowl	—	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#94	#99	#104	#121	#125	#102	#96
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	46.0	57.4	43.2	41.3	37.4	31.8
Coordinators
OC	Kirk Campbell	Kirk Campbell	Kevin Reihner	Kevin Decker	Kevin Decker	Kevin Decker	Kody Cook
DC	Blake Seiler	Blake Seiler	Blake Seiler	Blake Seiler	Blake Seiler	Blake Seiler	Blake Seiler
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	36	32	35	78	77	26
Defense	—	83	21	83	38	98	90
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	—	41.5	53.2	40.1	35.5	38.7	28.1
Red-zone pass%	—	40.8	59.1	41.5	35.4	37.0	27.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	34.1	35.4	38.5	25.8	28.6	—

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

130

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-72

#128 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 233 lbs

across 43 of 58 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+1.9 lbs

#186 of 255 · a typical amount

Avg. class year

#121 of 255 · a typical amount

Top states: VA (7), GA (7), CA (4), TX (3), KS (3)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

53.4

position-weighted

Talent lost

57.9

position-weighted

Net

-4.5

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Jaxon Potter (QB) from Washington State

Biggest loss: Colton Joseph (QB) to Wisconsin

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Kirk Campbell → Kevin Reihner · 2022

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 41.5% → 53.2% (+11.6 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 79% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Kevin Reihner → Kevin Decker · 2023

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 53.2% → 40.1% (-13.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 21% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Kevin Decker → Kody Cook · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 38.7% → 28.1% (-10.6 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 9% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

216 lbs

6′3″ avg · #292 of 767 · a typical amount

Running back

195 lbs

5′10″ avg · #743 of 791 · less than most

Wide receiver

184 lbs

6′0″ avg · #720 of 791 · less than most

Tight end

242 lbs

6′6″ avg · #481 of 731 · a typical amount

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

306 lbs

6′5″ avg · #525 of 779 · a typical amount

D-line

283 lbs

6′2″ avg · #397 of 753 · a typical amount

Linebacker

222 lbs

6′1″ avg · #654 of 772 · less than most

Cornerback

186 lbs

5′11″ avg · #593 of 771 · less than most

Safety

188 lbs

5′11″ avg · #331 of 346 · less than most

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

86%

#183 of 208 stints

Grows D-line from high school

79%

#186 of 239 stints

Postseason detail2021: Lost to Tulsa 17–30 Myrtle Beach Bowl Pres. by TaxAct2023: Lost to Western Kentucky 35–38 Famous Toastery Bowl2025: Beat South Florida 24–10 StaffDNA Cure Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Nick Saldiveri (2023), Tre Hawkins III (2023), Zack Kuntz (2023)

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Jason Henderson (2023)

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