Tavita Pritchard
Career arc
As of Fri Oct 23
- Last gameW 34-7 vs. Elon Sat Oct 17
- This season3-4
- On track for4-8 regular season
- Nextvs. NC State Fri Oct 23
- Stature71st of 138 FBS programs
Friday: vs. NC State
Fri Oct 23, 10:30 pm ET 
· NC State is 3-3 · First meeting between Pritchard and Dave Doeren as head coaches · Stanford’s chance to win: 25% (the site’s model)
No headlines named him in the last 7 days
Offense: 117th of 138 per play. Defense: 138th.
5 games left
- Fri Oct 23vs. NC State (3-3)25%
- Sat Oct 31at Louisville (4-3)
6% - Sat Nov 14at Virginia Tech (5-2)15%
- Sat Nov 21at California (3-4)41%
- Sat Nov 28vs. SMU (5-1)13%
Percent: Stanford’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where Stanford stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
- Oct 12–18W 34-7 vs. Elon0 headlines
- Oct 5–11L 7-58 at Notre Dame2 headlines · 70th of 138
- Sep 28–Oct 4L 3-57 at Wake Forest0 headlines
- Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 34-27 vs. Georgia Tech0 headlines
- Sep 14–20 · rebuiltL 7-35 at Duke2 headlines · 79th of 138Everything Stanford HC Tavita Pritchard said following Duke's win Duke Wire
- Sep 7–13 · rebuiltNo game2 headlines · 84th of 138Stanford Broadcaster SCOTT REISS Previews Miami-Stanford & Goes Behind-the-Scenes on Andrew Luck and Tavita Pritchard
The Miami Hurricane
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Watch the biggest plays from Stanford’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.
5 stories about him in the last 30 days
Fri Oct 23: NC State
from 3 outlets and r/CFB
Stanford coach Tavita Pritchard owns up to disappointing performance against Notre Dame
On3 Oct 11 · 1 outlet
What they’re talking about
Press conference and quotes2 stories
37 stories about him this season
from 21 outlets and r/CFB
Stanford prepares for first season under new coach Tavita Pritchard, rugged schedule awaits
AP News +2 Aug 19 · 3 outlets
All 3 articles
What they’re talking about
Press conference and quotes9 stories
Roundtable +1Stanford Notes: Pritchard's First Game, Challenges Facing HawaiiAug 27All 2 articles
- On3Stanford head coach Tavita Pritchard talks opening week of fall campAug 3
YardbarkerWatch: Stanford Head Coach Tavita Pritchard Interview | 2026 ACC FootballAug 17- On3Recap: Stanford opens up Tavita Pritchard era with win over HawaiiAug 30
- From The Other Side: What Stanford HC Tavita Pritchard Had to SaySep 3
Game preview7 stories
- AP News +2Stanford prepares for first season under new coach Tavita Pritchard, rugged schedule awaitsAug 19
All 3 articles
FOX SportsStanford prepares for first season under new coach Tavita Pritchard, rugged schedule awaitsThe Washington PostStanford prepares for first season under new coach Tavita Pritchard, rugged schedule awaitsAP NewsStanford prepares for first season under new coach Tavita Pritchard, rugged schedule awaits 
The Mercury NewsPritchard wants ‘violence, speed’ from Stanford players in coaching debut vs. HawaiiAug 28- Stanford football: Tavita Pritchard wants 'violence, speed' vs. Hawai'iAug 28
- ABC7 Bay AreaStanford football coach Tavita Pritchard looks back on Australia game ahead of 49ers openerSep 7
- The Miami HurricaneStanford Broadcaster scott reiss Previews Miami-Stanford & Goes Behind-the-Scenes on Andrew Luck and Tavita PritchardSep 9
Win5 stories
- The Mercury NewsDavis Warren expects to win at Stanford under Tavita PritchardAug 13
CBS SportsStanford survives Hawaii rally to win Tavita Pritchard's debutAug 29
247SportsStanford holds off Hawaii 37-27 in Tavita Pritchard's debutAug 30
USA Today +1Stanford's Tavita Pritchard era begins with win on Pacific Islander nightAug 30
ESPNStanford's stunning rally seals Pritchard's 1st winAug 30
Quarterback and depth chart3 stories
Sports Illustrated +1Tavita Pritchard on Stanford’s New Era, Andrew Luck & QB CompetitionAug 21All 2 articles
- RoundtableStanford's Tavita Pritchard Prioritizes Accuracy Over Arm Strength in QB AssessmentAug 10
- On3Stanford head coach Tavita Pritchard names Davis Warren the starting quarterbackAug 19
Could another school hire him? What has he said?
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Oct 23.
In his own words
Every quote, back to September 2026
In his own words (4)
When some of those plays do start to go our way, he’s ready for those moments; he’s not pressing
We have to find a way to stop helping the other team … whether it was penalties, or mental errors, missed assignments
I thought our guys just did a better job of executing the fundamentals of what we were doing
We know that we’re going to have to move on pretty quickly from this
Hires into jobs like this
Hired into 29–29, National Program III. Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
- Frank Reich20254–8-1.5
- Troy Taylor20233–9-5.9
- David Shaw201111–2+6.4
- Jim Harbaugh20074–8-1.7
- Walt Harris20055–6-0.3
- Buddy Teevens20022–9-2.8
- Tyrone Willingham19957–4-0.5
- Dennis Green19893–8-1.2
Hot seat
See every job →This season
Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.
His first rated season here.
His hot seat, week by week
The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.
What drives his number
The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.
- ▼ CoolerYear 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
(why?)
Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.
- ▲ Hotter3-4, outscored by 128
- ▼ CoolerNo previous seasons here to judge him on
What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025
A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.
- Were 3-4 after 7 games
- 13% pushed out over results · of 522 coaches
- Were in year 1, after 7 games
- 1% pushed out over results · of 523 coaches
How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.
Coaching career
Followed Frank Reich (2025).
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
AI Narratives — “Stanford — stat check”.
Big games
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
0-1 against his rivals.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Signature games
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
How good is he so far?
Three numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His recruiting, really
No class below is fully his yet — every one was inherited or signed mid-transition, so none counts toward a verdict.
Transition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 33 of 113 players. The other 80 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Of his own players on this roster, 9% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
Everyone he has brought in, 2026–2026Counting players who have since left: 9% of the 33 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Where he recruits
is his biggest recruiting state: 6 of 23 signees (26%) across his 2026–2026 tenure, drawn from 11 states in all. Next: AZ (3).
43% of his signees come from CA and its 3 border states (AZ 3, NV 1).
- median hometown distance
- 1,624 mi
- within 100 mi
- 11%
- within 500 mi
- 28%
- beyond 1,000 mi
- 61%
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.