Ryan Carty
Also coached below FBS: Delaware 2022–24
Career arc
Bowls and playoffs: 1-0
202568 Ventures BowlW 20-13
As of Fri Oct 23
- Last gameW 61-38 vs. Missouri State Tue Oct 20
- This season3-4
- On track for6-6 regular season
- Nextat Western Kentucky Tue Oct 27
- Stature124th of 138 FBS programs ▲ 2nd-most valuable win of the week
Tuesday: at Western Kentucky
Tue Oct 27, 7 pm ET CBS Sports Network · Western Kentucky is 3-4 · Carty vs. Tyson Helton: 0-1 · Delaware’s chance to win: 48% (the site’s model)
No headlines named him in the last 7 days
Offense: 79th of 138 per play. Defense: 114th.
5 games left
- Tue Oct 27at Western Kentucky (3-4)CBS Sports Network48%
- Sat Nov 7at Kennesaw State (1-6)
72% - Sat Nov 14vs. Florida International (3-4)64%
- Sat Nov 21at New Mexico State (3-4)66%
- Sat Nov 28vs. Jacksonville State (5-2)CBS Sports Network51%
Percent: Delaware’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where Delaware stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
- Oct 12–18L 30-33 at Middle Tennessee0 headlines
- Oct 5–11No game0 headlines
- Sep 28–Oct 4L 14-30 vs. Liberty0 headlines
- Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 3-42 at Virginia0 headlines
- Sep 14–20 · rebuiltW 22-14 vs. Coastal Carolina1 headline · 91st of 138Once overlooked, Jo Silver has produced as Ryan Carty's first recruit
The News Journal (Delaware) - Sep 7–13 · rebuiltL 26-35 at Vanderbilt0 headlines
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Watch the biggest plays from Delaware’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.
In his own words
Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.
Hot seat
See every job →This season
Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.
Now right where 2025 was at this point.
His hot seat, week by week
The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.
Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.
What drives his number
The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.
- ▲ Hotter3-4, outscored by 1
- ▼ CoolerYear 2 · tenure, which this model overrates
(why?)
Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.
- ▼ CoolerRegional Program program · the bar going in
What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025
A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.
- Were 3-4 after 7 games
- 13% pushed out over results · of 522 coaches
- Were in year 2, after 7 games
- 5% pushed out over results · of 473 coaches
How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.
Poach watch
This winter
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
- ▼ Lower7-6 over his previous season here
- ▼ LowerAge 43 · coaching at his alma mater
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
- The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
- Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
- It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
- A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Coaching career
| Season | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||
| Record | 7-6 | 3-4 | |
| Postseason | W bowl | — | |
| Coordinators | |||
| OC | Terence Archer | Terence Archer | |
| DC | Manny Rojas | Manny Rojas | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||
| Offense | 62 | 43 | |
| Defense | 17 | 18 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | |||
| 1st-down pass% | 58.6 | 53.7 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 45.2 | 44.2 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 45.5 | 33.3 | |
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
AI Narratives — “Delaware — stat check”.
Big games
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
How he plays
Run/pass mix, by field position
Passed more than the situation called for under Archer.
901 run and pass snaps at Delaware, 2025–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
How good is he so far?
Three numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His recruiting, really
His 2 ranked Delaware classes of his own have averaged #124 nationally — best #115, worst #134.
His class — he had the full signing cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 153 of 153 players. Nobody is left from before he was hired.
Of his own players on this roster, 34% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
Everyone he has brought in, 2025–2026Counting players who have since left: 35% of the 60 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Where he recruits
is his biggest recruiting state: 8 of 39 signees (21%) across his 2025–2026 tenure, drawn from 13 states in all. Next: NJ (8).
26% of his signees come from FL and its 2 border states (GA 2).
Off this map: 2 signees to the west (KS 2).
- median hometown distance
- 120 mi
- within 100 mi
- 41%
- within 500 mi
- 74%
- beyond 1,000 mi
- 4%
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.