The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Timmy Chang

Followed Todd Graham. Timmy Chang held Hawai'i at Regional Program IV for 5 seasons.

22–29
2022–now · 1 stint
Hawai'i
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In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerHAWAI'IRegional Programthe building-block levelHawai'i, 2022: 3-10, Regional Program IV2022Hawai'i, 2023: 5-8, Regional Program IV2023Hawai'i, 2024: 5-7, Regional Program IV2024Hawai'i, 2025: 9-4, Regional Program IV2025Hawai'i, 2026: in progress, Regional Program IV2026-0.8One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Hawai'i, 5 seasons (active)
−0.8
Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

60%Hawai'i2022–2026▲ 8.8pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Hawai'i8.8pt#155 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

1–4 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Brent Brennan.

Rivalry record
1–4
20.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
6–11
35.3% · margin ≤8
Buyout owed
$57,576 (est.)
bigger than 0% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
UNLV1–420%
The toughest matchup
vs. Brent Brennan0–3
3 meetings, 2022–2025
’22 L’23 L’25 L
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
0–4 0.0%
National Program
3–7 30.0%
Regional Program
13–17 43.3%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.02
#166 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
-0.23
#277 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2022–now
Hawai'icaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV
Timmy Chang held Hawai'i at Regional Program IV for 5 seasons.

10th-best Hawai'i tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-2.1 pts
#122 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-15.3 pts
#165 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Todd Graham (2020–2021).

Season20222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record3–105–85–79–40–0
Postseason———W bowl—
Recruiting rank#121#116#116#124#124
Style — pass rate
Pass rate54.762.459.059.763.5
Coordinators
OCIan ShoemakerIan Shoemaker / Roman SapoluDan MorrisonAnthony ArceneauxAnthony Arceneaux
DCJacob YoroJacob Yoro / Eti EnaDennis ThurmanDennis ThurmanDennis Thurman
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense223035638
Defense33338257
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%46.661.656.355.557.0
Red-zone pass%42.158.266.360.763.6
4th-down go%opp. territory39.141.223.128.230.0
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
56
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
76
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-20
#111 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 220 lbs
across 46 of 56 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-3.1 lbs
#248 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#126 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: CA (11), HI (7), NV (5), FL (4), OH (4)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
56.1
position-weighted
Talent lost
58.8
position-weighted
Net
-2.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Joey Yellen (QB) from Pittsburgh
Biggest loss: Cammon Cooper (QB) to SE Louisiana
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Ian Shoemaker → Ian Shoemaker / co-Roman Sapolu · 2023
22nd pct30th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 46.6% → 61.6% (+14.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 61% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Ian Shoemaker / co-Roman Sapolu → co-Dan Morrison · 2024
30th pct35th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 61.6% → 56.3% (-5.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 90% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Dan Morrison → Anthony Arceneaux · 2025
35th pct63rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 56.3% → 55.5% (-0.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 46% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Jacob Yoro → Jacob Yoro / co-Eti Ena · 2023
3rd pct33rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Jacob Yoro / co-Eti Ena → Dennis Thurman · 2024
33rd pct38th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
208 lbs
6′2″ avg · #526 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
201 lbs
5′10″ avg · #613 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
188 lbs
6′0″ avg · #621 of 791 · less than most
Tight end
230 lbs
6′4″ avg · #709 of 731 · less than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
301 lbs
6′3″ avg · #657 of 779 · less than most
D-line
260 lbs
6′2″ avg · #741 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
218 lbs
6′1″ avg · #741 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
185 lbs
5′11″ avg · #608 of 771 · less than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Running back via the portal
100%
#1 of 208 stints
Buys D-line via the portal
62%
#47 of 239 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
82%
#183 of 224 stints
Postseason detail2025: Beat California 35–31 Sheraton Hawaiʻi Bowl

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Kansei Matsuzawa (2025), Billy Gowers (2025)

AI Narratives — “Hawai'i's Week 14 Standings” and 4 more on the team page.

22–29