The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Joe Harasymiak

0–12
2025–now · 1 stint
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In his own words

We didn’t want to go three-and-out there
Dailycollegian · · the day after Massachusetts's 2026 opener
Great call on the rail route to [Faulkner] to score
Dailycollegianthe day after the 37–21 opener
Certainly, those running backs are special
Dailycollegianthe day after the 37–21 opener
The whole night in general we talked about the moment a lot
Dailycollegianthe day after the 37–21 opener
Obviously, [Watson III] is one
Dailycollegian
And now we really got to figure out over this next week who’s going to go in the game if they have to with the twos.
Dailycollegian
So now is like the grind, like the dog days of camp. So our drills have taken over into that
Dailycollegian
We’ve added a lot of drills in that we did not do last year. Multiple inside runs, we’re doing pods almost every day, one-on-one pass rush, team run stuff, so we’re trying to magnify that as much as we can.
Dailycollegian
I think [the defensive line is] going to be above average… in terms of [Mid-American Conference] play.
Dailycollegian
Like when I stand back there, and we rush, we have a chance to be great, but I think we’re going to start there.
Dailycollegian

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerMASSACHUSETTSRegional Programthe building-block levelMassachusetts, 2025: 0-12, Regional Program VI2025Massachusetts, 2026: in progress, Regional Program VI2026-0.6One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Massachusetts, 2 seasons (active)
−0.6
Regional Program VI → Regional Program VI.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Massachusetts2025–2026▼ 19.2pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

One-score games
0–1
0.0% · margin ≤8
Buyout owed
$5,200,000 (est.)
bigger than 45% of FBS buyouts
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
0–2 0.0%
Regional Program
1–8 11.1%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.54
#305 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.32
#296 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2025–now
Massachusetts
too new to grade yet

7th-best Massachusetts tenure of 7 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-36.0 pts
#206 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-36.3 pts
#202 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Don Brown (2022–2024).

Season20252026Trend
Record & result
Record0–120–0
Postseason
Recruiting rank#136#116
Style — pass rate
Pass rate54.135.0
Coordinators
OCMike BajakianMax Warner
DCJared KeyteJared Keyte
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense188
Defense257
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%45.630.8
Red-zone pass%51.914.3
4th-down go%opp. territory33.3
Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
56
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
46
left via the portal
Net portal flow
+10
#13 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 232 lbs
across 40 of 56 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+5.4 lbs
#84 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Jr
#204 of 255 · less than most
Top states: FL (5), NJ (5), NY (4), GA (4), MD (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
52.0
position-weighted
Talent lost
50.8
position-weighted
Net
+1.2
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: William Watson III (QB) from Virginia Tech
Biggest loss: Grant Jordan (QB) to Oklahoma State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Mike Bajakian → Max Warner · 2026
1st pct88th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 45.6% → 30.8% (-14.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only -57% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Quarterback via the portal
71%
#13 of 206 stints
Buys Linebacker via the portal
71%
#17 of 225 stints

AI Narratives — “Massachusetts — stat check”.

0–12
How to read this. Bands and archetypes come from the Zeitgeist List’s season-by-season stature model, and only apply once a stint clears 3 coached seasons in our ledger — a newer stint shows its real record with no stature judgment yet.