Joe Harasymiak

Head coach · Massachusetts
2nd season · since 2025

At school4-16since 2025 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatCool8% · 41st of 132 jobsLast gameL 16-35at UConn · Oct 23Nextvs Ball StateWed Nov 4 · 7 pm ET · ESPNU
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, lost 4 straight, on track for 6-6 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 16-35 at UConn Fri Oct 23
  • This season4-4 lost 4 straight
  • Hot seat8% 41st of 132
  • On track for6-6 regular season
  • Nextvs. Ball State Wed Nov 4
  • Stature136th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 6%. Lose and he’s at 10%.

vs. Ball State, Wed Nov 4, 7 pm ET ESPNU · Ball State is 3-5 · First meeting between Harasymiak and Mike Uremovich as head coaches · Massachusetts’s chance to win: 52% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Massachusetts wins: 6%, 49th of 132Now: 8%If Massachusetts loses: 10%, 39th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Massachusetts wins: 6%, 49th of 132
  • Now: 8%
  • If Massachusetts loses: 10%, 39th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

8% chance he’s out after the season · 41st of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow4% had they won4% had they wonLoss 10%Win 6%29%17%8%5%2%4%5%6%8%Pre1W at RutgersW2W vs. Sacred HeartW3W vs. StonehillW4W at Sacramento StateW5L vs. Eastern MichiganL6L vs. Miami (OH)L7L at BuffaloL8L at UConnL9Chance to win vs. Ball State52%10Chance to win at Toledo8%11Chance to win vs. Akron62%12Chance to win at Bowling Green44%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow4% had they wonLoss 10%Win 6%29%8%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 4-814%
  2. 5-78%
  3. 6-65%
  4. 7-53%
  5. 8-42%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202520262025, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (3 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 3%, 69th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 72nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 3%, 71st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 3%, 63rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 4%, 61st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 4%, 63rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 4%, 55th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 4%, 55th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 4%, 55th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 5%, 61st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 4%, 75th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 5%, 65th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 6%, 55th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 8%, 50th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 8%, 47th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 8%, 41st-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    0-12 over his previous season here
  • ▼ Cooler
    $5.2M buyout (USA Today estimate) · 3.8× his pay, a multiple above average in FBS — costly to move on
  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 2 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in year 2, after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 469 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$5,200,000 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 3.8× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 13%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Offense: 77th of 138 per play. Defense: 48th.

Offense, per play77thOffense, starting field position40thDefense, per play48thDefense, opponents' starting field position131stWorstBest
Offense, per play77th of 138Offense, starting field position40th of 138Defense, per play48th of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position131st of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Massachusetts. The other two rows are where Massachusetts stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Wed Nov 4vs. Ball State (3-5)ESPNU52%
  2. Wed Nov 11at Toledo (6-2)8%
  3. Wed Nov 18vs. Akron (1-8)62%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Bowling Green (2-7)44%

Percent: Massachusetts’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Massachusetts has held at 136th of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.

  1. Oct 26–Nov 1No game0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25L 16-35 at UConn0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18L 18-25 at Buffalo0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11L 19-20 vs. Miami (OH)1 headline · 83rd of 138
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 14-38 vs. Eastern Michigan0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 35-6 at Sacramento State0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.