Tre Lamb
Also coached below FBS: Gardner–Webb 2020–23; East Tennessee State 2024
Career arc
As of Fri Oct 23
- Last gameW 38-17 at Rice Sat Oct 17
- This season4-3
- Hot seat5% 62nd of 137
- On track for7-5 regular season
- Nextvs. Army Fri Oct 23
- Stature103rd of 138 FBS programs
What the result changed
- Playoff odds <0.1% → 0.1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after
Win and he’s at 3%. Lose and he’s at 6%.
vs. Army, Fri Oct 23, 8:30 pm ET 
· Army is 4-2 · Lamb vs. Jeff Monken: 1-0 · Tulsa’s chance to win: 34% (the site’s model)
- If Tulsa wins: 3%, 74th of 137
- Now: 5%
- If Tulsa loses: 6%, 60th of 137
Is he getting fired?
5% chance he’s out after the season · 62nd of 137 FBS head coaches · Cool
If he finishes…
Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out
- 5-78%
- 6-65%
- 7-53%
- 8-42%
- 9-31%
Why his number is where it is
Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.
Now right where 2025 was at this point.
His hot seat, week by week
The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.
Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.
What drives his number
The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.
- ▲ Hotter4-8 over his previous season here
- ▼ CoolerYear 2 · tenure, which this model overrates
(why?)
Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.
What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025
A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.
- Were 4-3 after 7 games
- 6% pushed out over results · of 573 coaches
- Were in year 2, after 7 games
- 5% pushed out over results · of 473 coaches
How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.
2 headlines named him in the last 7 days
73rd of 138 FBS head coaches
The headlines, Oct 18–23 from 2 outlets
- Tulsa WorldTulsa coach Tre Lamb analyzes Rice win, previews ArmyMon Oct 19
- News On 6Tre Lamb previews Army, praises Tulsa's defensive turnaround and weighs in on playoff expansionMon Oct 19
Offense: 69th of 138 per play. Defense: 59th.
5 games left
- Fri Oct 23vs. Army (4-2)34%
- Sat Nov 7at Tulane (3-3)45%
- Sat Nov 14vs. Florida Atlantic (4-2)68%
- Sat Nov 21vs. Charlotte (1-6)89%
- Sat Nov 28at UTSA (6-1)24%
Percent: Tulsa’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where Tulsa stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
- Oct 12–18W 38-17 at Rice2 headlines · 74th of 138
- Oct 5–11L 26-34 at Navy2 headlines · 70th of 138
- Sep 28–Oct 4L 44-45 vs. North Texas6 headlines · 59th of 138Tulsa football: Tre Lamb explains why his Golden Hurricane went for 2 Tulsa World
- Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 6-34 at Arkansas5 headlines · 60th of 138
- Sep 14–20 · rebuiltW 42-0 vs. East Texas A&M1 headline · 91st of 138
- Sep 7–13 · rebuiltW 23-17 at Sam Houston3 headlines · 73rd of 138
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Watch the biggest plays from Tulsa’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.
15 stories about him in the last 30 days
Fri Oct 23: Army
from 8 outlets and r/CFB
Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette +1 Sep 27 · 2 outlets
All 2 articles
What they’re talking about
Game preview6 stories
Yahoo SportsTre Lamb and Tulsa have the upper hand against ArkansasSep 24- Tulsa WorldTulsa coach Tre Lamb analyzes loss at Arkansas, previews North TexasSep 28
- News On 6Tre Lamb: ‘Don’t Regret Going For It’ | Tulsa Prepares for NavyOct 5
- Tulsa WorldTulsa coach Tre Lamb reviews North Texas loss, looks ahead to NavyOct 5
- Tulsa WorldTulsa coach Tre Lamb analyzes Navy loss, looks ahead to RiceOct 12
Press conference and quotes3 stories
48 stories about him this season
from 17 outlets and r/CFB
Oklahoma State football coach Eric Morris sees Tulsa's Tre Lamb as 'superstar' in making
Sports Illustrated +3 Sep 1 · 4 outlets
All 5 articles
What they’re talking about
Press conference and quotes16 stories
- Sports Illustrated +2Tulsa Coach Tre Lamb Heaps Praise on Oklahoma State Before Season OpenerAug 31
All 3 articles
Roundtable +1Tulsa Coach Tre Lamb Has High Praise for Oklahoma State: ‘They Don’t Have Any Weaknesses’Aug 27- Tulsa WorldON THIS DAY | 08.07.25 | TU’s Tre Lamb says 6-6 'is never going to be the standard here’Aug 6
- News On 6TU Football: Tre Lamb praises Tulsa defense on first day in padsAug 12
- Tulsa WorldUniversity of Tulsa emphasizing Tulsa County football players under Tre Lamb | Berry Tramel's ScissorTalesAug 15
Game preview8 stories
Locked OnTulsa Coach Tre Lamb Has Gone From "Kicking Ass" To Praising Oklahoma State On Game Week?Aug 31- Tulsa WorldTulsa coach Tre Lamb reviews win over OSU, looks ahead to Sam Houston StateSep 7
- Yahoo SportsTre Lamb and Tulsa have the upper hand against ArkansasSep 24
- Tulsa WorldTulsa coach Tre Lamb analyzes loss at Arkansas, previews North TexasSep 28
- News On 6Tre Lamb: ‘Don’t Regret Going For It’ | Tulsa Prepares for NavyOct 5
Win3 stories
Sporting News +1Second straight win against Oklahoma State could have Tulsa, coach Tre Lamb going placesSep 5- Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette +1Ryan Silverfield, Tre Lamb, players press conferences: Arkansas football defeats Tulsa - Northwest Arkansas Democrat-GazetteSep 27
All 2 articles
Northwest Arkansas Democrat-GazetteRyan Silverfield, Tre Lamb, players press conferences: Arkansas football defeats TulsaWhole Hog SportsRyan Silverfield, Tre Lamb, players press conferences: Arkansas football defeats Tulsa - wholehogsports.com - Tulsa WorldBill Haisten: As Tre Lamb called his shot, TU’s win was not a flukeSep 8
Hot seat2 stories
Injuries2 stories
Quarterback and depth chart2 stories
41 stories about him across 2 seasons
Is he on the hot seat? Could another school hire him? What has he said?
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Oct 23.
In his own words
Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.
Hires into jobs like this
Hired into 15–15, Regional Program III. Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
- Kevin Wilson20234–8-4.1
- Philip Montgomery20156–7+0.2
- Bill Blankenship20118–5+1.8
- Todd Graham200710–4+4.5
- Steve Kragthorpe20038–5+0.7
- Keith Burns20005–7-0.3
- David Rader19884–7-1.7
- George Henshaw19873–8-4.8
Poach watch
This winter
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
- ▼ Lower4-8 over his previous season here
- ▲ HigherAge 37 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
- ▲ HigherHis team is 4-3, outscoring opponents by 6.6 points a game
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
- The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
- Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
- It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
- A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Coaching career
Followed Kevin Wilson (2023–2024).
| Season | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||
| Record | 4-8 | 4-3 | |
| Postseason | — | — | |
| Coordinators | |||
| OC | Ty Darlington / Brad Robbins | Kevin Barbay / Ty Darlington | |
| DC | Josh Reardon / Mike Gray | Josh Reardon / Mike Gray | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||
| Offense | 30 | 68 | |
| Defense | 49 | 56 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | |||
| 1st-down pass% | 41.6 | 46.7 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 38.4 | 42.3 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 54.8 | 57.1 | |
Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
AI Narratives — “Tulsa — stat check” and 3 more on the team page.
Big games
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
How he plays
Run/pass mix, by field position
Ran more than the situation called for under Robbins.
901 run and pass snaps at Tulsa, 2025–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
How good is he so far?
Three numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His recruiting, really
His one ranked Tulsa class of his own finished #93 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 82 of 111 players. The other 29 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Of his own players on this roster, 28% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
Everyone he has brought in, 2025–2026Counting players who have since left: 39% of the 111 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Where he recruits
is his biggest recruiting state: 17 of 38 signees (45%) across his 2025–2026 tenure, drawn from 10 states in all. Next: OK (8).
76% of his signees come from TX and its 4 border states (OK 8, AR 3, LA 1).
- median hometown distance
- 247 mi
- within 100 mi
- 30%
- within 500 mi
- 70%
- beyond 1,000 mi
- 4%
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.