The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Jon Sumrall

Followed Chip Lindsey. Jon Sumrall moved Troy from Regional Program II to National Program III in 2 seasons.

43–12
2022–now · 3 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

I’m going to be very transparent with you, in the spring, I think Philo was way ahead because of understanding the offense and Tramell was significantly behind. I think they’ve both taken some steps up. Tramell has probably had more upward mobility, room to grow because he’s learning the offense
On3 ·
How you walk into a place says a lot about you, and how you leave says even more
FOX Sports
Well, I’d say no two decisions are alike. You know, like Lane and I are friends, and Lane and I talked several times through the process of October, November about what it was looking like for both of our schedules of how things were going to unfold
On3
Lane and I talked as we were going through it
FOX Sports
You would be kicked out of our team meeting. I swear
Saturday Down South
You are right Tom. I wasn’t serious. I was joking
Saturday Down South
There is a clear delineation
Saturday Down South
Well, I’d say no two decisions are alike
Saturday Down South
It was challenging to do it
Saturday Down South
It’s mixing and matching, and we’re not done. We’ll go through training camp and continue to work different groupings. I do feel like we’re way ahead of where we were starting spring
Saturday Down South
Just because you start Game 1 doesn’t mean you start Game 12
Saturday Down South
If we don’t improve, we’re going to get our ass beat
Saturday Down South
I would have stayed at Tulane and not taken any other job
Saturday Down South
That’s not a shot at anybody.
Saturday Down South
You probably have to start with Florida State
Saturday Down South
I think I nailed it
Saturday Down South
Those guys have to have a freaking great summer, or we got no chance. 
Like, no chance
Saturday Down South
We gotta wake the beast up. It’s time we wake this thing up. This is a sleeping giant
Saturday Down South
Do we know who the starter is today? No. No clue
Saturday Down South
I think probably one of the biggest things you have to do is, we have this transfer portal culture of transient players, where we have a lot of players on this team who don’t understand what Florida- Florida State and Florida-Georgia is all about
Saturday Down South
I got too much sh*t to do
Saturday Down South
I kind of feel like I’m talking to myself 20 years ago
Saturday Down South
I was like, ‘Can you say that again?'
Saturday Down South
The ultimate competitor, ridiculously detailed, super intense
Saturday Down South
Very, very blown away with how much he’s been open and willing to give me some feedback since I’ve been at Florida.
Saturday Down South
We’ve got a lot of work to do to figure out what that looks like, and who’s the starter and all that stuff
Saturday Down South
Gotta earn it. Gotta earn the logo
Saturday Down South
(Jon) Sumrall walks into The Swamp with a brand new staff a brand new offense and no one to run it. It’s down to Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones. Sumrall’s scouting report on the depth chart was 3 words — ‘it’s very fluid,'
McElroy · Saturday Down South
My relationship with Coach Craddock and Coach Sumrall was big. Coach Faulkner, too
Davidson · Saturday Down South
I’m not even sure Coach Sumrall knows this, but I did some homework and had a friend of mine gather about 10 interviews that he did and I had them pick them, because I didn’t have time to run through all of them
Meyer · Saturday Down South
Jon Sumrall, I think more so, not necessarily just the type of players he brings in, but just his ability to galvanize, put a team together and get them all to believe in each other. And then they improve. Every single John Sumrall team you watch, they’re just absolutely improving week to week to week to week
Marcello · Saturday Down South
Sumrall is a good coach
Craig · FOX Sports

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerTROYTULANEFLORIDAPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelTroy, 2022: 12-2, Regional Program I2022Troy, 2023: 11-2, National Program III2023+8.6Tulane, 2024: 9-5, National Program III2024Tulane, 2025: 11-3, National Program II2025+2.3Florida, 2026: in progress, Power Program II2026-0.4One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Power Program in his 5th career season — faster than 30% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #251 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Troy, 2 seasons
+8.6
Regional Program I → National Program III.
Tulane, 2 seasons (active)
+2.3
National Program III → National Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Troy2022–2023▲ 3.8ptTulane2024–2025▲ 8.3ptFlorida2026–2026– 0.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

1–0 against his rivals.

Rivalry record
1–0
100.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
12–2
85.7% · margin ≤8
Rivalry ledger
South Alabama1–0100%
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
0–4 0.0%
National Program
5–3 62.5%
Regional Program
20–1 95.2%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.44
#32 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.51
#10 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

program directionOne fan's take that season

One fan believes Jon Sumrall will bring back a winning culture to Florida football

Why Florida Will Return To Greatness With Jon Sumrall… It is inevitable that there will be hype every time a program hires a new head coach. However, Florida hiring Jon Sumrall just feels different, it feels like the hype is justified.

Based on 5 comments from 1 poster across 2 threads · Jul 16, 2026–Jul 23, 2026 · via FloridaGators

Coaching career

2026–now
Florida
too new to grade yet

15th-best Florida tenure of 22 by the numbers.

Followed Billy Napier (2022–2025).

Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
27
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
36
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-9
#17 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Eric Singleton Jr. On3 modeled · $1,000,000Aaron Philo On3 modeled · $1,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 227 lbs
across 25 of 27 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-0.7 lbs
#240 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#51 of 255 · more than most
Top states: FL (5), TX (4), GA (4), NC (2), MA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
54.2
position-weighted
Talent lost
59.0
position-weighted
Net
-4.8
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Aaron Philo (QB) from Georgia Tech
Biggest loss: D.J. Lagway (QB) to Baylor
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Tight end via the portal
100%
#1 of 188 stints
Buys Wide receiver via the portal
71%
#19 of 243 stints

7 NFL Draft picks: Caleb Banks (2026), Jake Slaughter (2026), Austin Barber (2026), Devin Moore (2026), George Gumbs Jr. (2026), Trey Smack (2026), Tommy Doman (2026)

0–0
2024–now
Tulane
too new to grade yet

6th-best Tulane tenure of 23 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+31.0 pts
#12 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+25.4 pts
#17 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Willie Fritz (2016–2023).

Season20242025Trend
Record & result
Record9–511–3
PostseasonL bowlCFP loss
Recruiting rank#63#74
Style — pass rate
Pass rate37.045.3
Coordinators
OCJoe Craddock / Evan McKissackJoe Craddock / Evan McKissack
DCGreg Gasparato / Tayler PolkGreg Gasparato / Tayler Polk
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense8578
Defense9260
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%35.345.0
Red-zone pass%29.236.0
4th-down go%opp. territory44.134.9
Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
52
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
53
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-1
#19 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 230 lbs
across 38 of 52 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-2.5 lbs
#245 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#215 of 255 · less than most
Top states: AL (6), GA (6), LA (5), FL (4), NC (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
55.3
position-weighted
Talent lost
57.2
position-weighted
Net
-1.9
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Ty Thompson (QB) from Oregon
Biggest loss: Darian Mensah (QB) to Duke
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
206 lbs
6′2″ avg · #565 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
203 lbs
5′11″ avg · #556 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
178 lbs
5′11″ avg · #780 of 791 · less than most
Tight end
243 lbs
6′4″ avg · #442 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
292 lbs
6′4″ avg · #764 of 779 · less than most
D-line
282 lbs
6′3″ avg · #432 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
225 lbs
6′2″ avg · #558 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
182 lbs
6′0″ avg · #713 of 771 · less than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Tight end via the portal
80%
#12 of 188 stints
Buys Linebacker via the portal
67%
#23 of 225 stints
Grows K from high school
75%
#49 of 56 stints
Grows Tackle from high school
80%
#171 of 223 stints
Postseason detail2024: Lost to Florida 8–33 Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl2025: Lost to Ole Miss 10–41 College Football Playoff First Round Game

4 NFL Draft picks: Jha'Quan Jackson (2024), Michael Pratt (2024), Caleb Ransaw (2025), Micah Robinson (2025)

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Rayshawn Pleasant (2024)

20–8
2022–2023
Troycaretaker🏆 coach of the year
Regional Program II → National Program III
Jon Sumrall moved Troy from Regional Program II to National Program III in 2 seasons.

1st-best Troy tenure of 7 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+5.7 pts
#84 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+51.8 pts
#2 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Chip Lindsey (2019–2021) · succeeded by Gerad Parker (2024–2026).

Season20222023Trend
Record & result
Record12–211–2
PostseasonW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#125#93
Style — pass rate
Pass rate44.748.5
Coordinators
OCJoe CraddockJoe Craddock
DCShiel WoodGreg Gasparato
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense3564
Defense9497
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%39.043.7
Red-zone pass%41.044.5
4th-down go%opp. territory47.738.8
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
13
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
22
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-9
#155 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 240 lbs
across 10 of 13 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+9.5 lbs
#22 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#10 of 255 · more than most
Top states: AL (4), GA (1), FL (1), MO (1), CA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
41.4
position-weighted
Talent lost
51.0
position-weighted
Net
-9.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Peter Costelli (QB) from Utah
Biggest loss: Peter Costelli (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
210 lbs
6′3″ avg · #459 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
215 lbs
5′9″ avg · #133 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
186 lbs
6′0″ avg · #679 of 791 · less than most
Tight end
245 lbs
6′4″ avg · #380 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
309 lbs
6′4″ avg · #404 of 779 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Linebacker from high school
100%
#205 of 225 stints
Grows Cornerback from high school
80%
#209 of 236 stints
Postseason detail2022: Beat UTSA 18–12 Duluth Trading Cure Bowl2023: Lost to Duke 10–17 76 Birmingham Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Jake Andrews (2023), Javon Solomon (2024), Kimani Vidal (2024)

Coach of the Year: Sun Belt Coach of the Year (2022)

23–4
How to read this. Bands and archetypes come from the Zeitgeist List’s season-by-season stature model, and only apply once a stint clears 3 coached seasons in our ledger — a newer stint shows its real record with no stature judgment yet.