Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Florida. The other two rows are where Florida stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.
4 games left
Sat Nov 7vs. OUOklahoma (4-4)71%
Sat Nov 14at UKKentucky (7-1)50%
Sat Nov 21vs. VANVanderbilt (3-5)88%
Fri Nov 27at FSUFlorida State (3-5)75%
Percent: Florida’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where Florida stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
<1%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool106th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+
Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.
His first rated season here.
His hot seat, week by week
The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.
← swipe for earlier seasons
What drives his number
The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.
▼ Cooler
Year 1· tenure, which this model overrates(why?)
Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.
▼ Cooler
No previous seasons here to judge him on
What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025
A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.
Were 5-3 after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 502 coaches
Were in year 1, after 8 games
1% pushed out over results · of 521 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.
How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
▼ Lower
His first season at Florida
▲ Higher
No record for him here before this season · his first year in the job
▲ Higher
Age 44 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Fans
What fans are saying
program directionWidely held among fans
fans believe Jon Sumrall will quickly restore Florida football to national prominence
Fired the bum 3 years too late but sumrall has looked the part so far. Crushing overmatched competition and look confident
I trust Coach Jon Sumrall and his staff will get us back to winning and winning BIG.
Florida · Based on 3 comments from 3 posters across 3 threads · Sep 11, 2026–Sep 20, 2026 · via CFB, Florida Gators, FloridaGators
Fan chatter
Oct 31L 8-27 vs. GeorgiaJon Sumrall's loyalty to Philo is going to cost us this gameFLAFlorida fan
Oct 17W 27-24 at TexasAnyone talking about firing Sumrall atp is a nut case lol. But last week was really bad and they should feel badFLAFlorida fan
Oct 10L 19-38 vs. South CarolinaFlo "Fire Jon Sumrall" ridaFLAFlorida fan
Earlier weeks
Oct 3L 17-45 at MissouriFire Jon SumrallFLAFlorida fan
Sep 26W 52-28 vs. Ole MissPart of Sumrall's 5 year plan is throwing the FSU game to insure Norvell keeps his jobFLAFlorida fan
Sep 19W 44-39 at AuburnLove the fire from Sumrall. Gotta get those penalties cleaned upFLAFlorida fan
Sep 5W 66-21 vs. Florida AtlanticSumrall lit a fire under the defense at half timeFLAFlorida fan
Many stories about him this week
Sat Nov 7: Oklahoma
19th of 104 FBS head coaches · from many outlets and r/CFB
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.
Quarterback and depth chartDozens of storiesrisingJon Sumrall in no rush to name Florida’s starting quarterback as camp opensr/FloridaGators
Profile and featureDozens of stories
WinMany storiesfading
LossMany storiesfading[Abolverdi] Jon Sumrall said his 13-year-old son left The Swamp during the South Carolina game and sent him this text after the loss: “I don’t know that this is forgivable.”r/CFB
What was said at each stop
Stories we tracked, by school.
FloridaDozens of stories2026 to now
Most about: press conference and quotes, game preview, quarterback and depth chart.
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2024). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
Pick a job to see its years on their own.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
One-score games
7-1
87.5% · margin ≤8
Against the spread
16-12
+2.1 pts a game vs. the line
all 28 had a line
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
0-5 0.0%ATS —
National Program
4-2 66.7%ATS 4-2 6 of 6
Regional Program
15-1 93.8%ATS 10-6 16 of 16
Signature games
2-4 vs. AP top 25 · 0-0 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’24’25
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WUN
North Texas · 2025
34-21
UpsetQuality opponentConference title game
WNA
Navy · 2024
35-0
Quality opponent
WUS
South Florida · 2024
45-10
Quality opponent
Signature losses
LMI
Ole Miss · 2025
10-41
Bowl/CFP stakes
LUF
Florida · 2024
8-33
Bowl/CFP stakes
LAR
Army · 2024
14-35
UpsetConference title game
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WTE
Texas · 2026
27-24
UpsetQuality opponent
WMI
Ole Miss · 2026
52-28
Quality opponent
WAU
Auburn · 2026
44-39
Quality opponent
Signature losses
LUG
Georgia · 2026
8-27
Rival
LSC
South Carolina · 2026
19-38
Upset
LMI
Missouri · 2026
17-45
Upset
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
2-1 against his rivals. Nobody he faced three or more times has a winning record against him.
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’22’23’24’25’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WAP
App State · 2023
49-23
Quality opponentConference title game
WTE
Texas · 2026
27-24
UpsetQuality opponent
WMI
Ole Miss · 2026
52-28
Quality opponent
Signature losses
LMI
Ole Miss · 2025
10-41
Bowl/CFP stakes
LUF
Florida · 2024
8-33
Bowl/CFP stakes
LUG
Georgia · 2026
8-27
Rival
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered season
Building the roster
Four numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
None of his Florida classes is ranked and fully his yet. Across his other stops, his own classes averaged #84 nationally.
TRTroy
2022
#125
Transition
2023
#93
His class
TUTulane
2024
#63
Transition
2025
#74
His class
UFFlorida
2026
#17
Transition
Across every program: 2 ranked classes of his own, averaging #84 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Followed him here
at least4players
TRTroy→TUTulane2024
At least 4 players followed him from Troy to Tulane.
Caleb Ransaw S
Chris Rodgers LB
Deshaun Batiste DE
Jack Tchienchou S
at least2players
TUTulane→UFFlorida2026
At least 2 players followed him from Tulane to Florida.
Alec Clark P
Patrick Durkin PK
Players who transferred from his old program to his new one through the portal in the same year he made the move. Name-matching across data sources misses some, so every count is a floor, not an exact number.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
40%His own players
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 58 of 145 players. The other 87 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Arrived under him 58Inherited 87
Of his own players on this roster, 43% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
Everyone he has brought in, 2026–2026Counting players who have since left: 43% of the 58 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Where he recruits
FLTop state
is his biggest recruiting state: 11 of 20 signees (55%) across his 2026–2026 tenure, drawn from 6 states in all. Next: AL (3).
Where his signees came from, 2026–2026 (20 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)
80% of his signees come from FL and its 2 border states (AL 3, GA 2).
Off this map: 2 signees to the west (TX 2).
Roster distance from campus (Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, FL)
median hometown distance
277 mi
within 100 mi
20%
within 500 mi
76%
beyond 1,000 mi
6%
140 of 145 roster players with a known hometown (97% coverage)
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
News
Stories about him
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
We both have been incredibly high on Sumrall, and all the haters out there came after us when they fell apart. But I think he showed yesterday what he is capable of. I wish I could say the same thing about Steve Sarkisian, someone I’ve always liked and respected
Sumrall is a good coach
My relationship with Coach Craddock and Coach Sumrall was big. Coach Faulkner, too
I’m not even sure Coach Sumrall knows this, but I did some homework and had a friend of mine gather about 10 interviews that he did and I had them pick them, because I didn’t have time to run through all of them
Jon Sumrall, I think more so, not necessarily just the type of players he brings in, but just his ability to galvanize, put a team together and get them all to believe in each other. And then they improve. Every single John Sumrall team you watch, they’re just absolutely improving week to week to week to week
We both have been incredibly high on Sumrall, and all the haters out there came after us when they fell apart. But I think he showed yesterday what he is capable of. I wish I could say the same thing about Steve Sarkisian, someone I’ve always liked and respected
(Jon) Sumrall walks into The Swamp with a brand new staff a brand new offense and no one to run it. It’s down to Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones. Sumrall’s scouting report on the depth chart was 3 words — ‘it’s very fluid,'
I’m not even sure Coach Sumrall knows this, but I did some homework and had a friend of mine gather about 10 interviews that he did and I had them pick them, because I didn’t have time to run through all of them
Jon Sumrall, I think more so, not necessarily just the type of players he brings in, but just his ability to galvanize, put a team together and get them all to believe in each other. And then they improve. Every single John Sumrall team you watch, they’re just absolutely improving week to week to week to week
I’m going to be very transparent with you, in the spring, I think Philo was way ahead because of understanding the offense and Tramell was significantly behind. I think they’ve both taken some steps up. Tramell has probably had more upward mobility, room to grow because he’s learning the offense
Well, I’d say no two decisions are alike. You know, like Lane and I are friends, and Lane and I talked several times through the process of October, November about what it was looking like for both of our schedules of how things were going to unfold
It’s mixing and matching, and we’re not done. We’ll go through training camp and continue to work different groupings. I do feel like we’re way ahead of where we were starting spring
I think probably one of the biggest things you have to do is, we have this transfer portal culture of transient players, where we have a lot of players on this team who don’t understand what Florida- Florida State and Florida-Georgia is all about
Hired into programs rated 54 to 54 (Power Program II tier). Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
Of the 5 closest comps, 3 had the program higher than he found it by the end of his run and 2 lower. Median stay: 5 seasons; 3 left mid-season.
Every coach hired into a Power Program II job since 1990 (38): typically -1.5 after year 1, +0.5 after year 2.
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 227 lbs
across 25 of 27 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-0.6 lbs
#240 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. class year
Fr
#255 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.0★
rated arrivals only
Top states: FL (5), TX (4), GA (4), NC (2), NE (1)
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Eric Singleton Jr. On3 modeled · $1,000,000Aaron Philo On3 modeled · $1,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
54.2
position-weighted
Talent lost
59.0
position-weighted
Net
-4.8
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Aaron Philo (QB) from Georgia Tech
Biggest loss: D.J. Lagway (QB) to Baylor
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Jon Sumrall moved Tulane from National Program III to National Program II in 2 seasons.
Followed Willie Fritz (2016–2023) · succeeded by Will Hall (2026–now).
System Shift, on arrival
System Shift, on departure
Season
2024
2025
Trend
Record & result
Record
9-5
11-3
Postseason
L bowl
CFP loss
Coordinators
OC
Joe Craddock / Evan McKissack
Joe Craddock / Evan McKissack
DC
Greg Gasparato / Tayler Polk
Greg Gasparato / Tayler Polk
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
85
78
Defense
92
60
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
35.3
45.0
Red-zone pass%
29.2
36.0
4th-down go%opp. territory
44.1
34.9
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
+31.0 pts
#13 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
+25.4 pts
#16 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era
A portal-built roster.
Portal arrivals
52
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
53
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-1
#19 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 230 lbs
across 38 of 52 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-2.2 lbs
#244 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. class year
Jr
#33 of 255 · top quarter
Top states: AL (6), GA (6), LA (5), FL (4), NC (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
55.3
position-weighted
Talent lost
57.2
position-weighted
Net
-1.9
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Ty Thompson (QB) from Oregon
Biggest loss: Darian Mensah (QB) to Duke
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Tight end via the portal
80%
#12 of 188 stints
Buys Linebacker via the portal
67%
#23 of 225 stints
Grows Kicker from high school
75%
#49 of 56 stints
Grows Tackle from high school
80%
#171 of 223 stints
Postseason detail2024: Lost to Florida 8-33 Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl2025: Lost to Ole Miss 10-41 College Football Playoff First Round Game
Jon Sumrall moved Troy from Regional Program II to National Program III in 2 seasons.
Followed Chip Lindsey (2019–2021) · succeeded by Gerad Parker (2024–now).
System Shift, on arrival
System Shift, on departure
Season
2022
2023
Trend
Record & result
Record
12-2
11-2
Postseason
W bowl
—
Coordinators
OC
Joe Craddock
Joe Craddock
DC
Shiel Wood
Greg Gasparato
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
35
64
Defense
94
97
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
39.0
43.7
Red-zone pass%
41.0
44.5
4th-down go%opp. territory
47.7
38.8
Recruiter or developer?
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
+5.7 pts
#85 of 208 · middle half
Defense vs. talent
+51.6 pts
#2 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era
Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.
Portal arrivals
13
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
22
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-9
#155 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 240 lbs
across 10 of 13 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+9.6 lbs
#24 of 255 · top quarter
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · top quarter
Top states: AL (4), GA (1), FL (1), MO (1), CA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
41.4
position-weighted
Talent lost
51.0
position-weighted
Net
-9.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Peter Costelli (QB) from Utah
Biggest loss: Peter Costelli (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Coach of the Year: Sun Belt Coach of the Year (2022)
23-4
How good is he so far?
Program lift
Year 1
graded once a job reaches 3 seasons
Too new to grade — in-season movement only
Florida’s composite stature has risen since preseason: 53.5 entering the year to 54.5 through week 10 (Power Program II) · #62 of 138 in movement since preseason · middle half.
Coordinator years
Defensive coordinator across 2 programs, 2 stints, before and after wearing the head-coach hat — every season measured on the same axis, whether he personally ran the unit or someone else did.
How to read this. Coordinator seasons come from our coordinator career records; head-coaching-era seasons are the same unit's FBS-relative percentile for those years, regardless of who coached it, read directly from the staff assignments record. A role change (a “hinge”) is a fact, never a performance verdict — only the season-by-season data itself is colored by outcome.