The Zeitgeist List · Coaching

Brian Hartline

South Florida, 2026–nowUS2026now
5-2This season at South Florida
5-2Career
Program lift
Year 1
graded once a job reaches 3 seasons
See South Florida’s full coaching history →

Career arc

Part one · This week

As of Fri Oct 23

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.7% → 1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. UAB

No game this week · Sat Oct 31, 12 am ET ESPNU · UAB is 4-3 · First meeting between Hartline and Alex Mortensen as head coaches · South Florida’s chance to win: 70% (the site’s model)

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Fans are feeling good about South Florida

I need friends I'm a masters student drop in your snap or something. Need more friends

hey does anybody want to be in a punk-rock band? as a songwriter, i’ve been needing to find a group of people who are willing and equally passionate with music. i need an advanced-level bassist, guitarist and drummer. if you or someone you know want to create original music, reach out!

Bisht or Senevirathne Planning on taking orgo 2 next semester. Has anyone take professor Bisht or Senevirathne? How are the classes and teaching styles? Are the exams, homework, and quizzes decent? I saw Senevirathne has a higher rating than Bisht but a couple students responded with 5 stars that Bisht is good.

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 58th of 138 per play. Defense: 75th.

Offense, per play58thOffense, big plays112thDefense, per play75thDefense, big plays allowed29thWorstBest
Offense, per play58th of 138Offense, big plays112th of 138Defense, per play75th of 138Defense, big plays allowed29th of 138WorstBest
Through 7 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is South Florida. The other two rows are where South Florida stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

5 games left

  1. Sat Oct 31vs. UAB (4-3)ESPNU70%
  2. Fri Nov 6at East Carolina (3-4)ESPN263%
  3. Thu Nov 12vs. Memphis (6-2)55%
  4. Sat Nov 21at Florida Atlantic (4-2)70%
  5. Fri Nov 27vs. Tulane (3-3)65%

Percent: South Florida’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where South Florida stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

62nd68th74thPreseason71stFlorida International W 19-9Florida International W 19-9W 19-9Florida Inter…71stArmy W 28-24Army W 28-24W 28-24Army70thDelaware State W 59-17Delaware State W 59-17W 59-17Delaware State70thBowling Green W 14-6Bowling Green W 14-6W 14-6Bowling Green70thTemple L 13-17Temple L 13-17L 13-17Temple69thUTSA L 24-31UTSA L 24-31L 24-31UTSA68thKent State W 29-2Kent State W 29-2W 29-2Kent State68thBye66th
  1. Oct 12–18W 29-2 vs. Kent State0 headlines
  2. Oct 5–11L 24-31 at UTSA4 headlines · 59th of 138“Completely Braindead Moment”: Analyst Slams Brian Hartline’s Pregame Crowd Noise Jab at UTSA After USF’s 31-24 Loss Yahoo Sports
  3. Sep 28–Oct 4L 13-17 vs. Temple0 headlines
  4. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 14-6 at Bowling Green0 headlines
  5. Sep 14–20 · rebuiltW 59-17 vs. Delaware State0 headlines
  6. Sep 7–13 · rebuiltW 28-24 at Army0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from South Florida’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

South Florida

9 stories about him in the last 30 days

Bye week. Next: UAB, Sat Oct 31

from 7 outlets and r/CFB

Sep 24: 1Oct 4: 2Oct 5: 1Oct 7: 1Oct 8: 1Oct 9: 2Oct 11: 1W 14-6 at Bowling GreenWL 13-17 vs TempleLL 24-31 at UTSALW 29-2 vs Kent StateWSep 24Oct 23Most in a day: 2
Sep 24: 1Oct 4: 2Oct 5: 1Oct 7: 1Oct 8: 1Oct 9: 2Oct 11: 1W 14-6 at Bowling GreenWL 13-17 vs TempleLL 24-31 at UTSALW 29-2 vs Kent StateWSep 24Oct 23Most in a day: 2
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.

USF coach Brian Hartline questions authenticity of UTSA's crowd noise: 'I don't know how it gets so loud'

San Antonio Express-News +1 Oct 5 · 2 outlets

All 2 articles
Yahoo SportsUSF coach Brian Hartline questions authenticity of UTSA's crowd noise: 'I don't know how it gets so loud'San Antonio Express-NewsUSF coach Brian Hartline questions authenticity of UTSA's crowd noise: 'I don't know how it gets so loud'

What they’re talking about

Hot seat3 storiesfading
Loss2 stories

28 stories about him this season

from 17 outlets and r/CFB

Aug 1 to Aug 7: 2Aug 15 to Aug 21: 2Aug 22 to Aug 28: 1Aug 29 to Sep 4: 7Sep 5 to Sep 11: 4Sep 12 to Sep 18: 2Sep 19 to Sep 25: 2Oct 3 to Oct 9: 7Oct 10 to Oct 16: 1W 19-9 vs Florida InternationalWW 28-24 at ArmyWW 59-17 vs Delaware StateWW 14-6 at Bowling GreenWL 13-17 vs TempleLL 24-31 at UTSALW 29-2 vs Kent StateWAug 1Oct 23Most in a week: 7
Aug 1 to Aug 7: 2Aug 15 to Aug 21: 2Aug 22 to Aug 28: 1Aug 29 to Sep 4: 7Sep 5 to Sep 11: 4Sep 12 to Sep 18: 2Sep 19 to Sep 25: 2Oct 3 to Oct 9: 7Oct 10 to Oct 16: 1W 19-9 vs Florida InternationalWW 28-24 at ArmyWW 59-17 vs Delaware StateWW 14-6 at Bowling GreenWL 13-17 vs TempleLL 24-31 at UTSALW 29-2 vs Kent StateWAug 1Oct 23Most in a week: 7
Gold: stories about him each week. W and L: his games. Counted from Aug 1, when tracking began.

USF coach Brian Hartline questions authenticity of UTSA's crowd noise: 'I don't know how it gets so loud'

San Antonio Express-News +1 Oct 5 · 2 outlets

All 2 articles
Yahoo SportsUSF coach Brian Hartline questions authenticity of UTSA's crowd noise: 'I don't know how it gets so loud'San Antonio Express-NewsUSF coach Brian Hartline questions authenticity of UTSA's crowd noise: 'I don't know how it gets so loud'

What they’re talking about

Win4 stories
Game preview3 stories
Hot seat3 storiesfading
Press conference and quotes3 stories
Loss3 stories
Profile and feature2 stories

Could another school hire him? What has he said?

Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Oct 23.

In his own words

Usually, your biggest growth is from week one to week two
Usforacle · · the day before South Florida's 2026 game against Army
See every quote →
Every quote, back to September 2026

In his own words (1)

Usually, your biggest growth is from week one to week two
Usforaclethe day before South Florida's 2026 game against Army
Part two · The hire

Hires into jobs like this

Hired into 27–28, National Program III. Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.

Of the 5 closest comps, 2 left the program higher than he found it and 3 left it lower. Median stay: 5 seasons; 1 left mid-season.
Every coach hired into a National Program III job since 1990 (65): typically -1.8 after year 1, -3.2 after year 2.
band ends: fewer than 15 hires still in the job+20+16+12+8+4what he inherited-4-8hiredyr 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 6yr 7yr 8yr 9yr 10yr 11Fisch: +1.9 vs. inheritedKill: -0.1 vs. inheritedDesormeaux: -1 vs. inheritedThompson: -9.5 vs. inheritedTedford: +10.9 vs. inheritedHartline: -0 vs. inherited▏ Tedford +10.9▏ Fisch +1.9Hartline -0✕ Kill -0.1▏ Desormeaux -1▏ Thompson -9.5
1Jedd Fisch →
→ Arizona, 2021
1–11 · 5–7 · 10–3
3 seasons
+1.9 vs. what he inherited
2Jerry Kill →
→ Minnesota, 2011
3–9 · 6–7 · 8–5 · 8–5 · 4–3
5 seasons · left mid-season
-0.1 vs. what he inherited
3Michael Desormeaux →
→ Louisiana, 2022
1–0 · 6–7 · 6–7 · 10–4 · 6–7 · 5–2
5 seasons
-1.0 vs. what he inherited
4John Thompson No page yet
→ East Carolina, 2003
1–11 · 2–9
2 seasons
-9.5 vs. what he inherited
5Jeff Tedford →
→ California, 2002
7–5 · 8–6 · 10–2 · 8–4 · 10–3 · 7–6 · 9–4 · 8–5 · 5–7 · 7–6 · 3–9
11 seasons
+10.9 vs. what he inherited
First head-coaching job
No prior college head-coaching tenure on record.
The job he took
Followed Alex Golesh (2023–2025), after the season
23–15
Program was climbing in the 2023–2025 run-up.
A National Program III job.
How new coaches start here
  • Alex Golesh20237–6+1.2
  • Jeff Scott20201–8-2.3
  • Charlie Strong201710–2+2.7
  • Willie Taggart20132–10-3.4
  • Skip Holtz20108–5-0.5

Poach watch

This winter

9%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled24th-highest of 137 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    His first season at South Florida
  • ▲ Higher
    No record for him here before this season · his first year in the job
  • ▲ Higher
    Age 39 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Part three · The career

Coaching career

2026–now
South Florida
too new to grade yet

Followed Alex Golesh (2023–2025).

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 238 lbs
across 35 of 44 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+3.5 lbs
#144 of 255 · middle half
Avg. class year
Fr
#255 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.0★
rated arrivals only
Top states: GA (9), FL (8), AL (2), SC (2), CA (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
55.6
position-weighted
Talent lost
57.3
position-weighted
Net
-1.8
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Luke Kromenhoek (QB) from Mississippi State
Biggest loss: Byrum Brown (QB) to Auburn
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Tackle via the portal
100%
#1 of 223 stints
Buys Quarterback via the portal
100%
#1 of 206 stints
5-2

Big games

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

One-score games
2-2
50.0% · margin ≤8
Against the spread
3-4
all 7 had a line
Performance by opponent class
National Program
0-1 0.0%
Regional Program
4-1 80.0%

ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%FBS avg 41%South Florida2026–20261 season
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered season

How good is he so far?

Too new to grade — in-season movement only
South Florida’s composite stature has held about steady since preseason: 27.2 entering the year to 27.2 through week 8 (National Program III) · #133 of 138 in movement since preseason · bottom quarter.
Part four · How he builds a team

Three numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.

  1. 1His recruiting
  2. 2Roster ownership
  3. 3Where he recruits

His recruiting, really

No class below is fully his yet — every one was inherited or signed mid-transition, so none counts toward a verdict.

2026
#90
Transition

Transition — he was hired mid-cycle

Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.

Roster ownership

Roster ownership

55%His own players

of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 62 of 113 players. The other 51 are holdovers from before he was hired.

Arrived under him 62Inherited 51

Of his own players on this roster, 56% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).

Everyone he has brought in, 2026–2026Counting players who have since left: 56% of the 62 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.

“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.

Where he recruits

FLTop state

is his biggest recruiting state: 12 of 18 signees (67%) across his 2026–2026 tenure, drawn from 7 states in all. Next: AL (1).

Where his signees came from, 2026–2026 (18 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)

78% of his signees come from FL and its 2 border states (AL 1, GA 1).

1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee2 signees1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee

Off this map: 1 signee to the west (TX) and 1 to the north (DC).

Roster distance from campus (Raymond James Stadium, FL)
median hometown distance
296 mi
within 100 mi
26%
within 500 mi
70%
beyond 1,000 mi
9%
107 of 113 roster players with a known hometown (95% coverage)

The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.