Jedd Fisch

Head coach · Washington
3rd season · since 2024 · Arizona before

At Washington20-14since 2024 · 5-3 this seasonHot seatCool2% · 72nd of 132 jobsLast gameW 17-10at Nebraska · Nov 1Nextvs Penn StateSat Nov 7 · 3:30 pm ET · FS1
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

5-3, won 2 straight, on track for 7-5 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianUCLAArizonaWashingtonArizona StateArizona StateOregonOregonBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelUCLA when he took over: 43.3 (Power Program III), its final 2016 readingtook overUCLA, 2017: 1-1, Power Program IIIUCLA, 2017: 1-1, Power Program III20171-1-1.6Arizona when he took over: 27.2 (National Program III), its final 2020 readingtook overArizona, 2021: 1-11, Regional Program IArizona, 2021: 1-11, Regional Program I20211-11Arizona, 2022: 5-7, Regional Program II20225-7Arizona, 2023: 10-3, National Program IIIArizona, 2023: 10-3, National Program III202310-3+1.9Washington when he took over: 58.2 (Power Program I), its final 2023 readingtook overWashington, 2024: 6-7, Power Program IWashington, 2024: 6-7, Power Program I20246-7Washington, 2025: 9-4, Power Program I20259-4Washington, 2026: 5-3, Power Program IWashington, 2026: 5-3, Power Program I20265-3-3.9best: 2024gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 2-2

UCLA2017Cactus BowlL 17-35Arizona2023Alamo BowlW 38-24Washington2024Sun BowlL 34-352025LA BowlW 38-10

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 17-10 at Nebraska Sat Oct 31
  • This season5-3 won 2 straight
  • On track for7-5 regular season
  • Nextvs. Penn State Sat Nov 7
  • Stature16th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.2% → 0.7% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. Penn State

Sat Nov 7, 3:30 pm ET FS1 · Penn State is 4-4 · First meeting between Fisch and Matt Campbell as head coaches · Washington’s chance to win: 57% (the site’s model)

His week

UW Athletics · 132 views by Wednesday

Several stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from a few outlets

On the podcasts

Offense: 67th of 138 per play. Defense: 55th.

Offense, per play67thOffense, starting field position130thDefense, per play55thRun defense41stWorstBest
Offense, per play67th of 138Offense, starting field position130th of 138Defense, per play55th of 138Run defense41st of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Washington. The other two rows are where Washington stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Penn State (4-4)FS157%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Michigan State (2-6)82%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Indiana (8-1)25%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Oregon (5-3)30%

Percent: Washington’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Washington stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

10th16th22ndPreseason15thWashington State W 24-10Washington State W 24-10W 24-10Washington St…15thUtah State W 16-14Utah State W 16-14W 16-14Utah State15thEastern Washington W 48-16Eastern Washington W 48-16W 48-16Eastern Washi…15thMinnesota L 24-27Minnesota L 24-27L 24-27Minnesota16thUSC L 21-25USC L 21-25L 21-25USC16thIowa L 24-41Iowa L 24-41L 24-41Iowa16thPurdue W 38-26Purdue W 38-26W 38-26Purdue16thNebraska W 17-10Nebraska W 17-10W 17-10Nebraska17th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 17-10 at Nebraska9 headlines · 45th of 138
  2. Oct 19–25No game6 headlines · 57th of 138All We Hear is Purple: Decision Day 2026 Coming Soon for Jedd Fisch Yahoo Sports
  3. Oct 12–18W 38-26 at Purdue6 headlines · 47th of 138
  4. Oct 5–11L 24-41 vs. Iowa4 headlines · 59th of 138Here's everything Jedd Fisch said after Washington's 41-24 loss to No. 20 Iowa 247Sports
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 21-25 at USC7 headlines · 53rd of 138
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 24-27 vs. Minnesota5 headlines · 60th of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Washington’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

2%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool72nd-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Both of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2024202520262024, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, 107th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 128th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (6 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (7 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 116th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 113th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 116th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 115th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 118th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 115th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 110th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 110th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 110th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (3 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 117th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 113th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 109th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 113th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): <1%, 114th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 108th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 109th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 108th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 107th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 74th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 4%, 67th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 7%, 53rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 5%, 67th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 5%, 65th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 2%, 72nd-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    $33.7M buyout · 4.4× his pay, a multiple above average in FBS — costly to move on
  • ▲ Hotter
    Power Program program, AP-ranked in the preseason · the bar going in

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 5-3 after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 502 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$33,686,666 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 4.4× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 5%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

2%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled72nd-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His 3rd season at Washington
  • ▼ Lower
    A Power Four program · 89th percentile of FBS in program stature last season
  • ▲ Higher
    Age 50 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.