The Zeitgeist List · Coaching

Alonzo Carter

Sacramento State, 2026–nowSA2026now
1-6This season at Sacramento State
1-6Career
Program lift
Year 1
graded once a job reaches 3 seasons
8%Cool seat52nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs

Career arc

Part one · This week

As of Fri Oct 23

Win and he’s at 5%. Lose and he’s at 8%.

at Ball State, Sat Oct 24, 3:30 pm ET ESPN+ · Ball State is 2-5 · First meeting between Carter and Mike Uremovich as head coaches · Sacramento State’s chance to win: 19% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Sacramento State wins: 5%, 60th of 137Now: 8%If Sacramento State loses: 8%, 51st of 1370%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Sacramento State wins: 5%, 60th of 137
  • Now: 8%
  • If Sacramento State loses: 8%, 51st of 137
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

8% chance he’s out after the season · 52nd of 137 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow4% had they won4% had they wonLoss 8%Win 5%2%2%2%2%3%5%6%8%Pre1L at Eastern MichiganL2W vs. Mississippi Valley StateW3L at Fresno StateL4L vs. North Dakota StateL5L vs. MassachusettsL6L at Bowling GreenL7L vs. OhioL8Chance to win at Ball State19%9Chance to win vs. Kent State26%10Chance to win vs. Toledo3%11Chance to win at Central Michigan13%12Chance to win at Hawai'i19%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow4% had they wonLoss 8%Win 5%2%8%Pre367912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 1-119%
  2. 2-105%
  3. 3-93%
  4. 4-82%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (4 games in): 3%, 74th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (5 games in): 5%, 61st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 5%, 65th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 6%, 58th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 7%, 51st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 8%, 52nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobsnow

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    1-6, outscored by 124
  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    No previous seasons here to judge him on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 1-6 after 7 games
21% pushed out over results · of 215 coaches
Were in year 1, after 7 games
1% pushed out over results · of 523 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 130th of 138 per play. Defense: 108th.

Offense, per play130thOffense, big plays137thDefense, per play108thDefense, big plays allowed122ndWorstBest
Offense, per play130th of 138Offense, big plays137th of 138Defense, per play108th of 138Defense, big plays allowed122nd of 138WorstBest
Through 7 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Sacramento State. The other two rows are where Sacramento State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

5 games left

  1. Sat Oct 24at Ball State (2-5)ESPN+19%
  2. Fri Oct 30vs. Kent State (2-5)ESPN226%
  3. Wed Nov 4vs. Toledo (5-2)3%
  4. Wed Nov 11at Central Michigan (3-4)13%
  5. Sat Nov 28at Hawai'i (1-6)MW+19%

Percent: Sacramento State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Sacramento State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

122nd128th134thPreseason127thMississippi Valley State W 52-0Mississippi Valley State W 52-0W 52-0Mississippi V…126thEastern Michigan L 17-28Eastern Michigan L 17-28L 17-28Eastern Michi…127thFresno State L 3-49Fresno State L 3-49L 3-49Fresno State127thNorth Dakota State L 10-31North Dakota State L 10-31L 10-31North Dakota …128thMassachusetts L 6-35Massachusetts L 6-35L 6-35Massachusetts129thBowling Green L 10-38Bowling Green L 10-38L 10-38Bowling Green129thOhio L 7-48Ohio L 7-48L 7-48Ohio129th
  1. Oct 12–18L 7-48 vs. Ohio0 headlines
  2. Oct 5–11L 10-38 at Bowling Green1 headline · 83rd of 138
  3. Sep 28–Oct 4No game0 headlines
  4. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 6-35 vs. Massachusetts1 headline · 83rd of 138
  5. Sep 14–20 · rebuiltL 10-31 vs. North Dakota State0 headlines
  6. Sep 7–13 · rebuiltL 3-49 at Fresno State0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Sacramento State

6 stories about him in the last 60 days

Sat Oct 24: Ball State

from 7 outlets

Sep 5 to Sep 11: 1Sep 19 to Sep 25: 2Oct 3 to Oct 9: 1L 17-28 at Eastern MichiganLW 52-0 vs Mississippi Valley StateWL 3-49 at Fresno StateLL 10-31 vs North Dakota StateLL 6-35 vs MassachusettsLL 10-38 at Bowling GreenLL 7-48 vs OhioLAug 29Oct 23Most in a week: 2
Sep 5 to Sep 11: 1Sep 19 to Sep 25: 2Oct 3 to Oct 9: 1L 17-28 at Eastern MichiganLW 52-0 vs Mississippi Valley StateWL 3-49 at Fresno StateLL 10-31 vs North Dakota StateLL 6-35 vs MassachusettsLL 10-38 at Bowling GreenLL 7-48 vs OhioLAug 29Oct 23Most in a week: 2
Gold: stories about him each week. W and L: his games.

Sacramento State beats Mississippi Valley State 52-0 for Alonzo Carter's first win as head coach - ABC News

ABC News +2 Sep 6 · 3 outlets

All 3 articles
ABC NewsSacramento State beats Mississippi Valley State 52-0 for Alonzo Carter's first win as head coach - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and VideosKCRASacramento State beats Mississippi Valley State 52-0 for Alonzo Carter’s first win as head coachThe Washington PostSacramento State beats Mississippi Valley State 52-0 for Alonzo Carter's first win as head coach

What they’re talking about

Press conference and quotes2 stories

12 stories about him this season

from 20 outlets

Aug 8 to Aug 14: 2Aug 15 to Aug 21: 1Aug 22 to Aug 28: 5Sep 5 to Sep 11: 1Sep 19 to Sep 25: 2Oct 3 to Oct 9: 1L 17-28 at Eastern MichiganLW 52-0 vs Mississippi Valley StateWL 3-49 at Fresno StateLL 10-31 vs North Dakota StateLL 6-35 vs MassachusettsLL 10-38 at Bowling GreenLL 7-48 vs OhioLAug 1Oct 23Most in a week: 5
Aug 8 to Aug 14: 2Aug 15 to Aug 21: 1Aug 22 to Aug 28: 5Sep 5 to Sep 11: 1Sep 19 to Sep 25: 2Oct 3 to Oct 9: 1L 17-28 at Eastern MichiganLW 52-0 vs Mississippi Valley StateWL 3-49 at Fresno StateLL 10-31 vs North Dakota StateLL 6-35 vs MassachusettsLL 10-38 at Bowling GreenLL 7-48 vs OhioLAug 1Oct 23Most in a week: 5
Gold: stories about him each week. W and L: his games. Counted from Aug 1, when tracking began.

Alonzo Carter goes dancing to the big time as Sacramento State makes the transition to the FBS - ABC News

ABC News +12 Aug 23 · 13 outlets

All 13 articles
ABC NewsAlonzo Carter goes dancing to the big time as Sacramento State makes the transition to the FBS - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and VideosNew Haven RegisterAlonzo Carter goes dancing to the big time as Sacramento State makes the transition to the FBSChronAlonzo Carter goes dancing to the big time as Sacramento State makes the transition to the FBS - chron.comSFGATEAlonzo Carter goes dancing to the big time as Sacramento State makes the transition to the FBSNewsdayAlonzo Carter goes dancing to the big time as Sacramento State makes the transition to the FBSitemonline.comAlonzo Carter goes dancing to the big time as Sacramento State makes the transition to the FBSLancasterOnlineAlonzo Carter goes dancing to the big time as Sacramento State makes the transition to the FBSBozeman Daily ChronicleAlonzo Carter goes dancing to the big time as Sacramento State makes the transition to the FBSNew Castle NewsAlonzo Carter goes dancing to the big time as Sacramento State makes the transition to the FBSFOX SportsAlonzo Carter goes dancing to the big time as Sacramento State makes the transition to the FBSIndiana Gazette OnlineAlonzo Carter goes dancing to the big time as Sacramento State makes the transition to the FBSAP NewsAlonzo Carter goes dancing to the big time as Sacramento State makes the transition to the FBS

What they’re talking about

Profile and feature3 stories
Press conference and quotes2 stories
Win2 stories

Is he on the hot seat? What has he said?

Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Oct 23.

In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Part two · The hire
First head-coaching job
No prior college head-coaching tenure on record.
Part three · The career

Coaching career

2026–now
Sacramento State
too new to grade yet
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 222 lbs
across 15 of 26 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-2.2 lbs
#243 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. class year
Fr
#255 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.0★
rated arrivals only
Top states: CA (10), FL (2), IL (2), OH (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
51.3
position-weighted
Talent lost
50.3
position-weighted
Net
+1.0
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Carson Conklin (QB) from Fresno State
Biggest loss: Jaden Rashada (QB) to Mississippi State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Cornerback via the portal
83%
#15 of 236 stints
Buys Quarterback via the portal
67%
#16 of 206 stints

AI Narratives — “Sacramento State — stat check”.

1-6

Big games

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

Against the spread
2-5
all 7 had a line
Performance by opponent class
National Program
0-2 0.0%
Regional Program
0-4 0.0%

ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%FBS avg 41%Sacramento State2026–20261 season
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered season

How good is he so far?

Too new to grade — in-season movement only
Sacramento State’s composite stature has fallen since preseason: 8.7 entering the year to 6.8 through week 8 (Regional Program V) · #16 of 138 in movement since preseason · top quarter.
Part four · How he builds a team

Three numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.

  1. 1His recruiting
  2. 2Roster ownership
  3. 3Where he recruits

His recruiting, really

No class below is fully his yet — every one was inherited or signed mid-transition, so none counts toward a verdict.

2026
#125
Transition

Transition — he was hired mid-cycle

Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.

Roster ownership

Roster ownership

100%His own players

of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 169 of 169 players. Nobody is left from before he was hired.

Of his own players on this roster, 100% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).

Everyone he has brought in, 2026–2026Counting players who have since left: 100% of the 35 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.

“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.

Where he recruits

CATop state

is his biggest recruiting state: 23 of 31 signees (74%) across his 2026–2026 tenure, drawn from 6 states in all. Next: FL (4).

Where his signees came from, 2026–2026 (31 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)

74% of his signees come from CA and its 3 border states.

1 signee1 signee2 signees1 signee1 signee2 signees1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee2 signees1 signee2 signees2 signees1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee2 signees1 signee
By region
West
24
South
6
Midwest
1
Roster distance from campus (Hornet Stadium, CA)
median hometown distance
358 mi
within 100 mi
34%
within 500 mi
68%
beyond 1,000 mi
27%
164 of 169 roster players with a known hometown (97% coverage)

The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.