Tim Polasek
Also coached below FBS: North Dakota State 2024–25
Career arc
As of Fri Oct 23
- Last gameW 31-17 vs. Nevada Sat Oct 17
- This season6-1
- On track for10-2 regular season
- Nextat New Mexico Sat Oct 24
- Stature54th of 138 FBS programs
Saturday: at New Mexico
Sat Oct 24, 10 pm ET 
· New Mexico is 5-1 · First meeting between Polasek and Jason Eck as head coaches · North Dakota State’s chance to win: 35% (the site’s model)
3 stories this week →
The headlines, Oct 18–23 from 2 outlets
247Sports10 Things Tim Polasek said at his weekly press conference before New MexicoTue Oct 20
HeavyNDSU’s Tim Polasek In Line For Major Coaching AwardWed Oct 21
Offense: 79th of 138 per play. Defense: 2nd.
5 games left
- Sat Oct 24at New Mexico (5-1)35%
- Sat Oct 31vs. UTEP (1-6)MW+97%
- Sat Nov 14at Hawai'i (1-6)84%
- Sat Nov 21vs. Northern Illinois (0-6)93%
- Fri Nov 27at San José State (4-3)CBS Sports Network77%
Percent: North Dakota State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where North Dakota State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
- Oct 12–18W 31-17 vs. Nevada1 headline · 82nd of 138
- Oct 5–11L 7-13 at UNLV1 headline · 83rd of 138NDSU Coach Tim Polasek Sounds Off on Blown Call vs. UNLV Heavy
- Sep 28–Oct 4W 28-0 vs. Wyoming2 headlines · 75th of 138
- Sep 21–27 · rebuiltNo game0 headlines
- Sep 14–20 · rebuiltW 31-10 at Sacramento State1 headline · 91st of 138
- Sep 7–13 · rebuiltW 38-32 at Air Force1 headline · 92nd of 138
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Watch the biggest plays from North Dakota State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.
3 stories about him this week
Sat Oct 24: New Mexico
74th of 100 FBS head coaches · from 3 outlets and r/CFB
NDSU’s Tim Polasek In Line For Major Coaching Award
Heavy Oct 21 · 1 outlet
What they’re talking about
Press conference and quotes2 storiesrising
18 stories about him this season
from 12 outlets and r/CFB
The Legend of Tim Polasek: From logger to leading North Dakota State into FBS
Underdog Dynasty +2 Aug 17 · 3 outlets
All 3 articles
What they’re talking about
Press conference and quotes7 storiesrising
- 247Sports10 Things Tim Polasek said at his weekly press conference before Jacksonville StateAug 25
- 247Sports8 Things Tim Polasek said at his weekly press conference before Air ForceSep 8
- KX NewsJill Polasek talks NDSU vs Wyoming CowboysOct 2
- HeavyNDSU Coach Tim Polasek Sounds Off on Blown Call vs. UNLVOct 11
InForumWatch: Bison Head Coach Tim Polasek holds weekly press conferenceOct 13
Could another school hire him? What has he said?
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Oct 23.
In his own words
Every quote, back to August 2026
In his own words (1)
I think I like our team
Poach watch
This winter
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
- ▲ HigherHis team is 6-1, outscoring opponents by 18.1 points a game
- ▲ HigherNo FBS record for him before this season · North Dakota State moved up to FBS this year, and its seasons below FBS are not in the data
- ▲ HigherAge 47 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
- The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
- Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
- It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
- A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Coaching career
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
Big games
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
How good is he so far?
Three numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His recruiting, really
His one ranked North Dakota State class of his own finished #117 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 131 of 131 players. Nobody is left from before he was hired.
Of his own players on this roster, 100% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
Everyone he has brought in, 2026–2026Counting players who have since left: 100% of the 3 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Where he recruits
is his biggest recruiting state: 8 of 21 signees (38%) across his 2026–2026 tenure, drawn from 6 states in all. Next: ND (5).
86% of his signees come from MN and its 4 border states (ND 5, WI 5).
Off this map: 1 signee to the west (CO).
- median hometown distance
- 379 mi
- within 100 mi
- 11%
- within 500 mi
- 68%
- beyond 1,000 mi
- 9%
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.