Pete Golding

5-1This season at Ole Miss
7-2Career
Program lift
Year 1
graded once a job reaches 3 seasons
See Ole Miss’s full coaching history →

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 2-1

2025CFP first roundW 41-102025 QFSugar BowlW 39-342025 semiFiesta BowlL 27-31
Part one · This week

As of Fri Oct 23

  • Last gameW 31-3 vs. Missouri Sat Oct 17
  • This season5-1 won 2 straight
  • On track for9-3 regular season
  • Nextat Texas Sat Oct 24
  • Stature14th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • AP poll #9 → #7 up two
  • Playoff odds 32% → 49% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: at Texas

Sat Oct 24, 7:30 pm ET ABC · No. 19 Texas is 4-2 · First meeting between Golding and Steve Sarkisian as head coaches · Ole Miss’s chance to win: 51% (the site’s model)

His week

14 stories this week →

The headlines, Oct 18–23 from 7 outlets

On the podcasts

Offense: 20th of 138 per play. Defense: 86th.

Offense, per play20thOffense, big plays132ndDefense, per play86thDefense, big plays allowed22ndWorstBest
Offense, per play20th of 138Offense, big plays132nd of 138Defense, per play86th of 138Defense, big plays allowed22nd of 138WorstBest
Through 6 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Ole Miss. The other two rows are where Ole Miss stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

6 games left

  1. Sat Oct 24at Texas (4-2)ABC51%
  2. Sat Oct 31vs. Auburn (4-2)SEC Network79%
  3. Sat Nov 7vs. Georgia (6-1)45%
  4. Sat Nov 14at Oklahoma (3-3)73%
  5. Sat Nov 21vs. Wofford (5-3)SECN+99%
  6. Fri Nov 27vs. Mississippi State (4-2)ABC89%

Percent: Ole Miss’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Ole Miss has held at 14th of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.

  1. Oct 12–18W 31-3 vs. Missouri12 headlines · 30th of 138Pete Golding is Giving Ole Miss a Tougher Identity and Fans Are Noticing Sports Illustrated
  2. Oct 5–11W 52-17 at Vanderbilt15 headlines · 30th of 138How Pete Golding fixed Ole Miss defense vs Vanderbilt without changing anything The Clarion-Ledger
  3. Sep 28–Oct 4No game4 headlines · 68th of 138Pete Golding Hints Ole Miss Could Make Personnel Changes During Bye Week Yahoo Sports
  4. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 28-52 at Florida21 headlines · 20th of 138Pete Golding questions Ole Miss defense's manhood after Florida runs over Rebels Yahoo Sports
  5. Sep 14–20 · rebuiltW 32-24 vs. LSU26 headlines · 14th of 138Lane Kiffin, Pete Golding and more react after Ole Miss defeats LSU in Kiffin’s RETURN to Oxford FOX Sports
  6. Sep 7–13 · rebuiltW 41-9 vs. Charlotte25 headlines · 19th of 138Pete Golding Makes His Expectations Clear for Ole Miss vs. Charlotte Yahoo Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Ole Miss’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Ole Miss

14 stories about him this week

Sat Oct 24: Texas

33rd of 100 FBS head coaches · from 9 outlets and r/CFB

Oct 18: 2Oct 19: 4Oct 20: 2Oct 21: 3Oct 22: 2Oct 23: 1W 31-3 vs MissouriWOct 17Oct 23Most in a day: 4
Oct 18: 2Oct 19: 4Oct 20: 2Oct 21: 3Oct 22: 2Oct 23: 1W 31-3 vs MissouriWOct 17Oct 23Most in a day: 4
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.

Game talk is up: 12 stories in the last two weeks, from 4 the two weeks before.

What they’re talking about

Game preview4 storiesrising
Press conference and quotes4 stories
Win2 storiesrising

223 stories about him this season

from 51 outlets and r/CFB

Aug 1 to Aug 7: 19Aug 8 to Aug 14: 9Aug 15 to Aug 21: 3Aug 22 to Aug 28: 23Aug 29 to Sep 4: 22Sep 5 to Sep 11: 29Sep 12 to Sep 18: 30Sep 19 to Sep 25: 26Sep 26 to Oct 2: 14Oct 3 to Oct 9: 15Oct 10 to Oct 16: 19Oct 17 to Oct 23: 14W 41-38 vs LouisvilleWW 41-9 vs CharlotteWW 32-24 vs LSUWL 28-52 at FloridaLW 52-17 at VanderbiltWW 31-3 vs MissouriWAug 1Oct 23Most in a week: 30
Aug 1 to Aug 7: 19Aug 8 to Aug 14: 9Aug 15 to Aug 21: 3Aug 22 to Aug 28: 23Aug 29 to Sep 4: 22Sep 5 to Sep 11: 29Sep 12 to Sep 18: 30Sep 19 to Sep 25: 26Sep 26 to Oct 2: 14Oct 3 to Oct 9: 15Oct 10 to Oct 16: 19Oct 17 to Oct 23: 14W 41-38 vs LouisvilleWW 41-9 vs CharlotteWW 32-24 vs LSUWL 28-52 at FloridaLW 52-17 at VanderbiltWW 31-3 vs MissouriWAug 1Oct 23Most in a week: 30
Gold: stories about him each week. W and L: his games. Counted from Aug 1, when tracking began.

What they’re talking about

Press conference and quotes65 stories
Game preview27 storiesrising
Win15 storiesrising
Injuries13 stories
Loss9 storiesfading
Profile and feature6 stories

Could another school hire him? What has he said?

Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Oct 23.

What others say about him

It’s a lot of fun for (Golding). It’s a lot more fun how you (get to) play on third and 10, than third and 2
Every quote, back to April 2026

What others say (7)

It’s a lot of fun for (Golding). It’s a lot more fun how you (get to) play on third and 10, than third and 2
Echoles · The Daily Mississippian
I actually said last week that I think LSU wins the national championship by 50 points. What could little ole Pete Golding and Ole Miss do against a team that I’ve been talking about like that
McAfee · The Daily Mississippian
This matchup was already a tremendous opportunity for our program, kicking off Coach Golding’s first full season at the helm against a high-caliber opponent like Louisville, set in a premier destination like Nashville. Now with the added spotlight of a Sunday primetime national broadcast, the stage is even bigger
Carter · Saturday Down South
The personalities are a little different than our old coach and Coach Golding. I’d say he’s more of like a team guy
51590 Chambliss · Saturday Down South
Having PG (Pete Golding) as a coach, you just know what you’re going to get
Lacy · The Daily Mississippian
Coach Golding is calling the plays, but all of the things that I do (are) what he was doing
Brown · The Daily Mississippian
I think (Golding) totally understands now, like we all do now, that the expectation is that we want to get in the playoffs and we want to make deep runs
Carter · The Daily Mississippian

In his own words (86)

Some people have shown him different looks, taken away some first reads and been able to apply some pressure
On32 days before Ole Miss's 2026 game against Texas
A lot of (defensive issues have) been from a technical standpoint of pressing the football and angles of staying inside out
The Daily Mississippian3 days after the 31-3 game
I thought we stopped the run on first down and second and long, and then we got a penalty on the other one on third and long. We got into some advantageous situations where we had pressure
The Daily Mississippianthe day of the 31-3 game
(Frazier) had a really good week of practice last week
The Daily Mississippian3 days after the 52-17 game
(Lindsey’s) still in the mix. He’s still there. (Mills-Knight) came in … (and) gave a spark
The Daily Mississippian3 days after the 52-17 game
Sometimes, when you don’t have (Lacy), and you try to fit (the opponent) into what you want to do, that’s not always perfect and that’s hard to do
The Daily Mississippian3 days after the 52-17 game
Obviously, getting Kewan (Lacy) back really healthy, that’s going to change box counts as well
The Daily Mississippian3 days after the 52-17 game
There wasn’t one new call that we put in for this game that wasn’t already part of the system. … The execution was a little better and we played harder
The Daily Mississippian2 days after the 52-17 game
I think the opportunity presented itself
The Daily Mississippian2 days after the 52-17 game
There wasn’t one new call that we put in for this game that wasn’t already a part of the system, and so that’s what I tell you guys all the time
The Daily Mississippianthe day after the 52-17 game
That’s going to be a constant rotation based on how (Lacy) is and how healthy he is
The Daily Mississippian2 days before the Vanderbilt game
(We) have to work on both of them all week
The Daily Mississippian2 days before the Vanderbilt game
(The Ole Miss players) came back and responded the right way. Accountability and ownership come from everyone right?
The Daily Mississippian2 days before the Vanderbilt game
That was an old-fashioned butt whooping right there, man. (I) thought in all three phases, especially in the first half, (we) just couldn’t really get anything going offensively
The Daily Mississippianthe day after the 28-52 game
It (was) as bad of a first half as you can potentially have
The Daily Mississippianthe day after the 28-52 game
You can’t take (Florida) lightly. … I know it’s a tough place to play
The Daily Mississippianthe day of the 28-52 game
(Ray told me,) ‘Coach, I would love to stay (with Ole Miss), but I hate corner,’
The Daily Mississippian3 days after the 32-24 game
The goals and expectations that (Chancellor) Glenn (Boyce) and (Vice Chancellor for Intercollegiate Athletics) Keith (Carter) have set for this place isn’t about winning one football game in September
The Daily Mississippian3 days after the 32-24 game
I don’t think anybody came here to beat LSU. That’s not what our goal was. Coming in, working so hard in the offseason (and) summer, (our goal) wasn’t to win one football game
The Daily Mississippian3 days after the 32-24 game
Am I super proud of (the players)? Absolutely, but that’s three years since we’ve (Golding) been here that we’ve come home with that trophy. That’s an expectation here as it should be
The Daily Mississippian3 days after the 32-24 game
Is it sweet? Absolutely
FOX Sports2 days after the 32-24 game
It wasn’t going to be a super fun night for (the defensive line) because we were trying to make (Leavitt) a pocket passer
The Daily Mississippian2 days after the 32-24 game
(The fans) created an unbelievable atmosphere, which is the norm here
The Daily Mississippian2 days after the 32-24 game
I think for the most part they did a really good job
The Daily Mississippianthe day after the 32-24 game
I don’t think they stuck around for me. I think they stuck around for this (community), the fans and the alumni
The Daily Mississippianthe day of the 32-24 game
We’re going to continue trying to find five guys in the back end who do s–t right, because right now, we don’t have five
The Daily Mississippian2 days before the LSU game
(We are focusing on) eliminating the explosive plays. We had 12 explosive plays (allowed) last week for 340 yards
The Daily Mississippian2 days before the LSU game
I remember watching him back at Arizona State. (I noticed) his athletic ability there
The Daily Mississippian2 days before the LSU game
Winnie’s a huge part of their offense. He very rarely comes off the field. (They) use him in multiple different ways
The Daily Mississippian2 days before the LSU game
Obviously the former players and all the former coaches and the relationships that you’ve had (are important)
The Daily Mississippian2 days before the LSU game
This will be unique. Their head ball coach recruited a lot of these guys and all that is on the opposing side
The Daily Mississippian2 days before the LSU game
We’ve got a mature enough group to understand that it’s going to be a hard football game. (LSU has) a really good football team
The Daily Mississippian2 days before the LSU game
(The team will) be locked in. I think they’ll be focused
The Daily Mississippian2 days before the LSU game
It’s like high school homecoming. If you focus on the wrong s–t, that homecoming dance ain’t very fun after you get your butt beat on a Friday night
The Daily Mississippian2 days before the LSU game
It’s been a really good game every year that I’ve been here
The Daily Mississippian2 days before the LSU game
I think it goes both (ways). Obviously, there’s a lot that you know about them on both sides. (They know) about us. We know about them
The Daily Mississippian3 days before the LSU game
I thought Maldonado played a better game. He’s constantly getting better with every rep and every practice. He really flashed
The Daily Mississippian3 days after the 41-9 game
Ferrelli played a better game. I think he’s getting better with every practice and every week as well
The Daily Mississippian3 days after the 41-9 game
It’s still early in the season, and you have to create some continuity in the group
The Daily Mississippianthe day after the 41-9 game
It’s too many highs and lows. There’s flashes of an elite football team, and there’s flashes of a bad football team. We’ve got to get those off the tape, and that’s our job as coaches
The Daily Mississippian2 days after the 41-38 opener
Football’s gonna end
On3the day after the 41-38 opener
We really did the mock game week not as much for the players, to be honest, but from a staff standpoint, to make sure we get the schedule down, build the right routine and make sure we’re hitting everything
The Daily Mississippian2 days before the opener
We’ll have everybody that we intended to have when we started camp; everybody’s available. Everybody’s in a pretty good spot
The Daily Mississippian2 days before the opener
I thought the execution was better. I’ve really been on them about the consistency of the execution
The Daily Mississippian2 days before the opener
There were some explosives in that scrimmage because of lack of communication and all those things, and if you do that this coming Sunday, you’re not going to win the football game
The Daily Mississippian2 days before the opener
We didn’t start very fast on offense, but I thought they got it going midway through the second quarter
The Daily Mississippian2 days before the opener
This is real now. This is for keeps, so we got this week to make sure we prepare really hard to clean it up
The Daily Mississippian2 days before the opener
I think Brohm does an unbelievable job calling and packaging plays. He’s had a lot of success (with that)
The Daily Mississippian3 days before the opener
A lot of these guys that didn’t play last fall are really, really good dudes, and our guys enjoy being around them because they’re like-minded
The Daily Mississippian8 days before the opener
(It) feels awesome. July was kind of that for me when we first spoke to get back into the ball piece of it, and then it was good to get through camp
The Daily Mississippian10 days before the opener
This is kind of a hybrid week for us
The Daily Mississippian10 days before the opener
To me, (practice has) been really flashy
The Daily Mississippian10 days before the opener
The drive is either extended based on a nonaggressive penalty or a bust, or the drive was stopped based on a nonaggressive penalty or a bust
The Daily Mississippian10 days before the opener
From that standpoint, how can we rotate a couple of guys for worst-case scenarios, and then what does one do better than the other from a package standpoint?
The Daily Mississippian10 days before the opener
I think, obviously, everybody after camp … is kind of banged up within reason, and I think that’s one thing in camp that we try to really focus on: the difference between being hurt and injured
The Daily Mississippian10 days before the opener
(He’s) continuing to develop his body in the weight room
The Daily Mississippian
Is there a player you HAVEN'T been asked about that we should be asking about?
Lockedonpodcasts
It’s not Louisville that the first time adversity hits or where there’s a situation that occurs that we’re not prepared for
The Daily Mississippian
When you’re talking about five (offensive) linemen, it’s kind of like a puzzle. Sometimes I could take this piece and move it over here, but is that a perfect fit over here?
The Daily Mississippian
Knowing you have other things with the (Patrick) Kutas’ of the world, some of those other guys that have played a lot of football that you could move and bump out that would create other opportunities for other guys
The Daily Mississippian
(Renaud) has gotten a lot better in the weight room
The Daily Mississippian
We do have a couple guys banged up, whether it be hamstrings or some shoulders, primarily at the wide receiver position more than anything right now
The Daily Mississippian
This is my ninth year in this league, and I’ve been fortunate to be learning (from) a lot of really good guys that do it the right way and that I have a lot of respect for
The Daily Mississippian
Just Google ‘Lane Kiffin,’
FOX Sports
(Lane) helped me on this one a little bit … because he had another offer that he actually worked out to where I could get it, and the other person couldn’t
Saturday Down South
What have we created? … Let’s not act like recruiting in college football for the last 100 years is the most moral thing. What are we talking about here?
Saturday Down South
You don’t think other ADs are calling us during the year?
Saturday Down South
It was a unique decision for us to leave Tuscaloosa (Ala.) to go to Oxford. (It was) not strictly a family decision, … but the people there have embraced us
The Daily Mississippian
We still know there’s a lot of work to be done. We know every season is independent of their own
The Daily Mississippian
We definitely would not be where we’re at as a university right now, as an athletic program at Ole Miss, without Glenn (Boyce) and Keith (Carter) working side-by-side. They embody everything Ole Miss is about
The Daily Mississippian
A little different structure than they’re used to, but I am just really, really big on the why
The Daily Mississippian
I was really … glad that I was able to retain … good staff on both sides of the ball — really, on all three phases
The Daily Mississippian
Football’s gonna end. What are you going to use? You gotta use an alumni base to be able to get you a job. Where are you gonna bring your kids to? What jersey are they wearing?
Saturday Down South
Lane and I are good. Everybody won from it
Saturday Down South
We got a compliance department. They get paid to do their job. They do a really good job
The Daily Mississippian
Let me put it to you this way: You’re a reporter. Would you quit your job before interviewing for another job or being offered another job? No. Nobody would
The Daily Mississippian
The model obviously has been broken. I’m all for everybody being on the same playing field and doing the same things
The Daily Mississippian
We go by the rules of the program and the flow. Like when you’re on the interstate and people are flying by you, what do you start doing? (Drive faster) or you’re going to get hit
The Daily Mississippian
That’s not why I came here
Saturday Down South
I think that was the biggest thing, that the old spring portal allowed you to do, if there was injuries or you took a guy that wasn’t who you thought he was, then you had the opportunity
Saturday Down South
Obviously the Egg Bowl was that Friday
Saturday Down South
It got real at about 12:20 that day
Saturday Down South
He’s just like, ‘Look, you got that job for a lot of reasons, but the primary reason is you’ve always done a really good job with the defense, and if you’re able to do that, you need to continue to do that,'
Saturday Down South
Obviously, there’s two sides to every story, right?
Saturday Down South
The bottom line with the recruitment of Luke, he came here on an official visit prior to the Fiesta Bowl
Saturday Down South
I told him, ‘I want you to be our green-dot mike, but right now we’ve got a green-dot Mike (linebacker),'
Saturday Down South
Part two · The hire

Hires into jobs like this

Hired into 50–51, Power Program II. Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.

Of the 5 closest comps, 2 left the program higher than he found it and 3 left it lower. Median stay: 4 seasons.
Every coach hired into a Power Program II job since 1990 (39): typically -1.4 after year 1, +0.5 after year 2.
band ends: fewer than 15 hires still in the job+8+4what he inherited-4-8-12hiredyr 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 6yr 7yr 8yr 9yr 10Hallman: -12.9 vs. inheritedDeBoer: +8 vs. inheritedTuberville: +3 vs. inheritedPrince: -8.4 vs. inheritedToledo: -2.2 vs. inheritedGolding: +5.3 vs. inherited▏ DeBoer +8Golding +5.3▏ Tuberville +3▏ Toledo -2.2▏ Prince -8.4▏ Hallman -12.9
His year 1 here (2025) overlaps a mid-season coaching change — that season’s composite may reflect more than just his own games.
→ LSU, 1991
5–6 · 2–9 · 5–6 · 4–7
4 seasons
-12.9 vs. what he inherited
→ Washington, 2022
11–2 · 14–1
2 seasons
+8.0 vs. what he inherited
→ Auburn, 1999
5–6 · 9–4 · 7–5 · 9–4 · 8–5 · 13–0 · 9–3 · 11–2 · 9–4 · 5–7
10 seasons
+3.0 vs. what he inherited
→ Kansas State, 2006
7–6 · 5–7 · 5–7
3 seasons
-8.4 vs. what he inherited
→ UCLA, 1996
5–6 · 10–2 · 10–2 · 4–7 · 6–6 · 7–4 · 7–5
7 seasons
-2.2 vs. what he inherited
First head-coaching job
No prior college head-coaching tenure on record.
The job he took
Followed Lane Kiffin (2020–2025), mid-season
55–19
Program was climbing in the 2022–2024 run-up.
A Power Program II job.
Rivalry record so far
Magnolia Bowl vs. LSU1–0
How new coaches start here
  • Lane Kiffin20205–5+1.3
  • Matt Luke20176–6-1.1
  • Hugh Freeze20127–6+0.2
  • Houston Nutt20089–4+6.4
  • Ed Orgeron20053–8-4.4
  • Tommy Tuberville19956–5-1.1
  • Joe Lee Dunn19944–7+0.4
  • Billy Brewer19836–6-0.7

This season

<1%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool121st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 112th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 106th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 121st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (6 games in): <1%, 121st-hottest of 137 FBS jobsnow

He took over during the 2025 season (3 games); that year is unrated, since each season counts against whoever started it.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    5-1, outscoring opponents by 82 · AP-ranked
  • ▼ Cooler
    2-1 over his previous season here

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 5-1 after 6 games
2% pushed out over results · of 430 coaches
Were in year 1, after 6 games
1% pushed out over results · of 525 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

1%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled87th-highest of 137 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    His first season at Ole Miss
  • ▲ Higher
    Age 42 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▼ Lower
    His team is 5-1, outscoring opponents by 13.7 points a game · AP-ranked
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Part three · The career

Coaching career

2025–now
Ole Miss
too new to grade yet

Followed Lane Kiffin (2020–2025).

Season20252026Trend
Record & result
Record2-15-1
PostseasonCFP loss—
Coordinators
OCCharlie Weis Jr. / Joe CoxJohn David Baker / Cody Woodiel
DCBryan Brown / Pete GoldingBryan Brown / Marcus Woodson
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense9788
Defense6543
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%45.158.1
Red-zone pass%28.340.0
4th-down go%opp. territory41.930.8
Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+36.0 pts
#10 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
+4.7 pts
#81 of 208 · middle half
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 235 lbs
across 52 of 56 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+8.2 lbs
#35 of 255 · top quarter
Avg. class year
So
#249 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.3★
rated arrivals only
Top states: FL (8), GA (6), TX (6), LA (5), AL (4)
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Kewan Lacy On3 modeled · $2,000,000Princewill Umanmielen On3 modeled · $1,500,000Trinidad Chambliss On3 modeled · $5,000,000Deuce Knight On3 modeled · $1,100,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
64.4
position-weighted
Talent lost
62.2
position-weighted
Net
+2.2
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Deuce Knight (QB) from Auburn
Biggest loss: Austin Simmons (QB) to Missouri
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Quarterback via the portal
83%
#5 of 206 stints
Buys Tight end via the portal
75%
#16 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2025: Beat Tulane 41-10 College Football Playoff First Round Game2025: Beat Georgia 39-34 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl2025: Lost to Miami 27-31 College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Kewan Lacy (2025)

AI Narratives — “Ole Miss's Offseason Portal Moves Create Starter Risks” and 13 more on the team page.

7-2

Big games

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

1-0 against his rivals.

Rivalry record
1-0
100.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
3-1
75.0% · margin ≤8
Against Blue Bloods or better
2-0
100.0%
Against the spread
5-4
all 9 had a line
Rivalry ledger
LSU1-0100%
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
2-0 100.0%
Power Program
2-2 50.0%
National Program
1-0 100.0%
Regional Program
2-0 100.0%

ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.

Signature games

3-1 vs. AP top 25 · 1-0 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
top 102026 vs #24 Louisville (W 41-38)2026 vs #7 LSU (W 32-24)2026 vs #21 Florida (L 28-52)2026 vs #13 Missouri (W 31-3)
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
W
Georgia · 2025
39-34
UpsetQuality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
W
Tulane · 2025
41-10
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
W
LSU · 2026
32-24
RivalUpsetQuality opponent
Signature losses
L
Miami · 2025
27-31
Bowl/CFP stakes
L
Florida · 2026
28-52

Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.

How he plays

Run/pass mix, by field position

Passed more than the situation called for under Jr..

199 run and pass snaps at Ole Miss, 2025–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.

passed moreran morewithin noise (95% range includes 0)
Pass rate, stint by stint

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%FBS avg 41%Ole Miss2025–2026▲ 5.8pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered season

How good is he so far?

Too new to grade — in-season movement only
Ole Miss’s composite stature has risen since preseason: 54.5 entering the year to 55.3 through week 8 (Power Program I) · #64 of 138 in movement since preseason · middle half.
Part four · How he builds a team

Three numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.

  1. 1His recruiting
  2. 2Roster ownership
  3. 3Where he recruits

His recruiting, really

No class below is fully his yet — every one was inherited or signed mid-transition, so none counts toward a verdict.

2026
#22
Transition

Transition — he was hired mid-cycle

Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.

Roster ownership

Roster ownership

47%His own players

of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 58 of 123 players. The other 65 are holdovers from before he was hired.

Arrived under him 58Inherited 65

Of his own players on this roster, 41% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).

Everyone he has brought in, 2025–2026Counting players who have since left: 41% of the 58 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.

“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.

Where he recruits

MSTop state

is his biggest recruiting state: 16 of 45 signees (36%) across his 2025–2026 tenure, drawn from 9 states in all. Next: FL (8).

Where his signees came from, 2025–2026 (45 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)

62% of his signees come from MS and its 4 border states (LA 7, AL 3, TN 2).

1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee2 signees1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee3 signees1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee2 signees1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee

Off this map: 3 signees to the north (IL, LA, others) and 1 to the west (TX).

By region
South
43
Midwest
1
Northeast
1
Roster distance from campus (Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, MS)
median hometown distance
298 mi
within 100 mi
16%
within 500 mi
71%
beyond 1,000 mi
9%
116 of 123 roster players with a known hometown (94% coverage)

The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.

How to read this. "This week" is the real, current season as of its date, rebuilt every night — not a career verdict. Bands and archetypes elsewhere on this page come from the Zeitgeist List’s season-by-season stature model, and only apply once a stint clears 3 coached seasons in our ledger — a newer stint shows its real record with no stature judgment yet.