Stature and coaches, 1957–2026
The program’s standing over time, with every coach’s tenure beneath it — read down to see who was there for each rise and fall.
DynastyBlue BloodPower ProgramNational ProgramRegional Program
Run↔pass identity, by season
Every coach
Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.
2007–now
Troy Calhoun Steady
Troy Calhoun moved the Falcons from Regional Program I to National Program III in 20 seasons.
Averaged a 17% pass rate — among the most run-heavy stretches in FBS since 2004
+4.2 pts over 20 seasons · bottom 19% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)
Closest comparable run: Gary Pinkel’s Toledo run (1991–2000)
3rd-best Air Force tenure of 4 by the numbers.
Followed Fisher DeBerry (1984–2006).
System Shift, on arrival
| Season | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Record | 9-4 | 8-5 | 8-5 | 9-4 | 7-6 | 6-7 | 2-10 | 10-3 | 8-6 | 10-3 | 5-7 | 5-7 | 11-2 | 3-3 | 10-3 | 10-3 | 9-4 | 5-7 | 4-8 | 6-2 | |
| Postseason | L bowl | L bowl | W bowl | W bowl | L bowl | L bowl | — | W bowl | L bowl | W bowl | — | — | W bowl | — | W bowl | W bowl | W bowl | — | — | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #114 | #117 | #105 | #120 | #89 | #86 | #107 | #111 | #122 | #114 | #109 | #121 | #107 | #107 | #89 | #112 | #103 | #136 | #129 | #136 | |
| Style — pass rate | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Pass rate | 22.9 | 15.1 | 15.8 | 18.3 | 22.0 | 15.8 | 21.5 | 20.6 | 17.2 | 15.4 | 15.6 | 19.1 | 14.3 | 16.4 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 17.1 | 20.1 | 11.8 | |
| Coordinators | |||||||||||||||||||||
| OC | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Mike Thiessen | Mike Thiessen | Mike Thiessen | Mike Thiessen | Mike Thiessen | Mike Thiessen | Mike Thiessen | Mike Thiessen | Mike Thiessen | Mike Thiessen | Mike Thiessen | Mike Thiessen | Mike Thiessen | |
| DC | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Steve Russ | Steve Russ | Steve Russ | Steve Russ | John Rudzinski | John Rudzinski | John Rudzinski | John Rudzinski | Brian Knorr | Brian Knorr | Brian Knorr | Brian Knorr | Steve Russ | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Offense | 88 | 36 | 60 | 81 | 94 | 62 | 44 | 61 | 88 | 66 | 60 | 72 | 87 | 78 | 87 | 74 | 68 | 41 | 80 | 76 | |
| Defense | 14 | 33 | 92 | 45 | 18 | 45 | 1 | 66 | 25 | 57 | 13 | 36 | 70 | 71 | 43 | 85 | 62 | 36 | 0 | 29 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 1st-down pass% | 20.1 | 13.5 | 20.2 | 17.9 | 24.6 | 17.7 | 17.3 | 18.9 | 15.2 | 15.7 | 15.1 | 13.6 | 9.0 | 15.7 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 13.4 | 17.2 | 9.7 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 14.5 | 12.0 | 14.9 | 5.6 | 9.5 | 2.8 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 12.3 | 12.6 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 36.1 | 40.9 | 37.7 | 50.0 | 48.4 | 63.4 | 43.8 | 42.0 | 40.6 | 22.7 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 45.5 | 23.1 | 50.0 | 35.3 | 38.9 | 44.4 | 62.8 | 51.9 | |
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
+48.1 pts
#2 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
+23.7 pts
#19 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era
Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.
Portal arrivals
2
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
48
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-46
#184 of 187 FBS stints
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
4.2
position-weighted
Talent lost
49.1
position-weighted
Net
-44.8
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Tim Mcclendon (LB) from Air Force
Biggest loss: Jacob Kilzer (QB) to North Dakota State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Steve Russ → John Rudzinski · 2018The system held
2-season window either side.
DC: John Rudzinski → Brian Knorr · 2022The system held
2-season window either side.
DC: Brian Knorr → Steve Russ · 2026
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
200 lbs
6′1″ avg · #690 of 767 · bottom quarter
Running back
211 lbs
5′11″ avg · #236 of 791 · middle half
Wide receiver
191 lbs
5′11″ avg · #472 of 791 · middle half
Tight end
245 lbs
6′6″ avg · #370 of 731 · middle half
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Linebacker
231 lbs
6′2″ avg · #280 of 772 · middle half
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Long snapper from high school
100%
#13 of 13 stints
Grows Kicker from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Postseason detail2007: Lost to California 36-42 Bowl2008: Lost to Houston 28-34 Bowl2009: Beat Houston 47-20 Bowl2010: Beat Georgia Tech 14-7 AdvoCare V100 INDEPENDENCE BOWL2011: Lost to Toledo 41-42 Military Bowl - Presented By Northrop Grumman2012: Lost to Rice 14-33 Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl2014: Beat Western Michigan 38-24 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl2015: Lost to California 36-55 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl2016: Beat South Alabama 45-21 Bowl2019: Beat Washington State 31-21 Cheez-It Bowl2021: Beat Louisville 31-28 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl2022: Beat Baylor 30-15 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl2023: Beat James Madison 31-21 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
3 NFL Draft picks: Austin Cutting (2019), Jordan Jackson (2022), Trey Taylor (2024)
1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Trey Taylor (2023)
AI Narratives — “Air Force — stat check”.
+4.2
145-99
1984–2006
Fisher DeBerry Builder
Fisher DeBerry raised Air Force from Regional Program III to National Program II.
Averaged a 22% pass rate — among the most run-heavy stretches in FBS since 2004
+15.6 pts over 23 seasons · top 37% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)
Closest comparable run: David Shaw’s Stanford run (2011–2022)
1st-best Air Force tenure of 4 by the numbers.
Followed Ken Hatfield (1979–1983) · succeeded by Troy Calhoun (2007–now).
System Shift, on departure
| Season | 1984 | 1985 | 1986 | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Record | 8-4 | 12-1 | 6-5 | 9-4 | 5-7 | 8-4-1 | 7-5 | 10-3 | 7-5 | 4-8 | 8-4 | 8-5 | 6-5 | 10-3 | 12-1 | 6-5 | 9-3 | 6-6 | 8-5 | 7-5 | 5-6 | 4-7 | 4-8 | |
| Postseason | W bowl | W bowl | — | L bowl | — | L bowl | W bowl | W bowl | L bowl | — | — | L bowl | — | L bowl | W bowl | — | W bowl | — | L bowl | — | — | — | — | |
| Recruiting rank | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | #116 | #112 | #115 | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pass rate | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.6 | 25.9 | 18.1 | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Offense | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 78 | 58 | 65 | |
| Defense | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 27 | 72 | 2 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1st-down pass% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.6 | 22.4 | 17.1 | |
| Red-zone pass% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.7 | 12.3 | 18.7 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 30.8 | 34.3 | |
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Kicker from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
Postseason detail1984: Beat Virginia Tech 23-7 Bowl1985: Beat Texas 24-16 Bowl1987: Lost to Arizona State 28-33 Bowl1989: Lost to Ole Miss 29-42 Bowl1990: Beat Ohio State 23-11 Bowl1991: Beat Mississippi State 38-15 Bowl1992: Lost to Ole Miss 0-13 Bowl1995: Lost to Texas Tech 41-55 Bowl1997: Lost to Oregon 13-41 Bowl1998: Beat BYU 20-13 Bowl1998: Beat Washington 45-25 Bowl2000: Beat Fresno State 37-34 Bowl2002: Lost to Virginia Tech 13-20 Bowl
3 NFL Draft picks: Steve Russ (1995), Daniel Palmer (1997), Bryce Fisher (1999)
+15.6
169-109-1
1979–1983
Ken Hatfield Steady
Ken Hatfield moved the Falcons from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 5 seasons.
+0.7 pts over 5 seasons · top 31% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
Closest comparable run: Lou Tepper’s Illinois run (1992–1996)
4th-best Air Force tenure of 4 by the numbers.
Followed Bill Parcells (1978) · succeeded by Fisher DeBerry (1984–2006).
| Season | 1979 | 1980 | 1981 | 1982 | 1983 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||
| Record | 2-9 | 2-9-1 | 4-7 | 8-5 | 10-2 | |
| Postseason | — | — | — | W bowl | W bowl | |
| Recruiting rank | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||||
| Pass rate | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||
| Offense | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Defense | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | ||||||
| 1st-down pass% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Red-zone pass% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | — | — | — | — | — | |
Postseason detail1982: Beat Vanderbilt 36-28 Bowl1983: Beat Ole Miss 9-3 Bowl
+0.7
26-32-1
1978
Bill Parcells Short tenure
3-8
1958–1977
Ben Martin Steady
Ben Martin moved Air Force from Regional Program I to National Program III in 20 seasons.
+5.0 pts over 20 seasons · bottom 20% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)
Closest comparable run: Lloyd Carr’s Michigan run (1995–2007)
2nd-best Air Force tenure of 4 by the numbers.
Followed Buck Shaw (1956–1957) · succeeded by Bill Parcells (1978).
| Season | 1958 | 1959 | 1960 | 1961 | 1962 | 1963 | 1964 | 1965 | 1966 | 1967 | 1968 | 1969 | 1970 | 1971 | 1972 | 1973 | 1974 | 1975 | 1976 | 1977 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Record | 9-0-2 | 5-4-1 | 4-6 | 3-7 | 5-5 | 7-4 | 4-5-1 | 3-6-1 | 4-6 | 2-6-2 | 7-3 | 6-4 | 9-3 | 6-4 | 6-4 | 6-4 | 2-9 | 2-8-1 | 4-7 | 2-8-1 | |
| Postseason | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | L bowl | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Recruiting rank | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Style — pass rate | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Pass rate | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Offense | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Defense | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 1st-down pass% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Red-zone pass% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Postseason detail1970: Lost to Tennessee 13-34 Bowl
+5.0
96-103-9
1956–1957
Buck Shaw Short tenure
9-8-2