UNLV: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2025–now

Dan Mullen Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

15-7

2023–2024

Barry Odom Short tenure

2023 defense ranked in the 2th percentile nationally — historically bad

19-8

2020–2022

Marcus Arroyo Steady

Marcus Arroyo moved UNLV from Regional Program V to Regional Program IV in 3 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

+1.0 pts over 3 seasons · top 29% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Pete Lembo’s Ball State run (2011–2015)

7th-best UNLV tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Tony Sanchez (2015–2019) · succeeded by Barry Odom (2023–2024).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2020	2021	2022
Record & result
Record	0-6	2-10	5-7
Postseason	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#77	#68	#100
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	46.8	45.6	47.3
Coordinators
OC	Glenn Thomas	Glenn Thomas	Nick Holz
DC	Peter Hansen	Peter Hansen	Keith Heyward
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	31	20	42
Defense	10	29	39
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	42.5	37.3	46.1
Red-zone pass%	50.0	36.1	40.4
4th-down go%opp. territory	47.1	24.2	37.8

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-9.3 pts

#146 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-15.5 pts

#168 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

3.2★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-18

#150 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′3″, 237 lbs

across 13 of 14 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+9.1 lbs

#24 of 255 · top quarter

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: GA (4), CA (3), AZ (1), SC (1), NV (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

42.6

position-weighted

Talent lost

51.8

position-weighted

Net

-9.2

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Tate Martell (QB) from Miami

Biggest loss: Kenyon Oblad (QB) to Utah Tech

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Glenn Thomas → Nick Holz · 2022

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 37.3% → 46.1% (+8.8 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 52% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Peter Hansen → Keith Heyward · 2022

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

223 lbs

6′4″ avg · #104 of 767 · top quarter

Running back

206 lbs

5′11″ avg · #438 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

191 lbs

6′0″ avg · #481 of 791 · middle half

Tight end

248 lbs

6′3″ avg · #278 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

321 lbs

6′4″ avg · #38 of 779 · top quarter

D-line

280 lbs

6′2″ avg · #461 of 753 · middle half

Linebacker

234 lbs

6′1″ avg · #126 of 772 · top quarter

Cornerback

188 lbs

6′1″ avg · #479 of 771 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tackle from high school

80%

#171 of 223 stints

Grows Interior line from high school

80%

#176 of 224 stints

+1.0

7-23

2015–2019

Tony Sanchez Steady

Tony Sanchez held the Rebels at Regional Program V for 5 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

+2.5 pts over 5 seasons · top 22% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Larry Fedora’s Southern Miss run (2008–2011)

8th-best UNLV tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Bobby Hauck (2010–2014) · succeeded by Marcus Arroyo (2020–2022).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Record & result
Record	3-9	4-8	5-7	4-8	4-8
Postseason	—	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#106	#81	#117	#99	#100
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	42.2	36.1	36.2	39.0	46.7
Coordinators
OC	Barney Cotton	Barney Cotton	Barney Cotton	Barney Cotton	Garin Justice
DC	Kent Baer	Kent Baer	Kent Baer	Tim Skipper	Tim Skipper
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	48	50	59	47	31
Defense	11	17	20	10	27
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	37.7	32.4	29.9	31.5	40.3
Red-zone pass%	41.2	23.6	24.8	31.2	27.7
4th-down go%opp. territory	30.8	26.9	26.0	45.2	41.5

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+6.2 pts

#78 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-24.6 pts

#187 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Barney Cotton → Garin Justice · 2019

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 31.5% → 40.3% (+8.8 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 80% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Kent Baer → Tim Skipper · 2018The system held

2-season window either side.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

+2.5

20-40

2010–2014

Bobby Hauck Steady

Bobby Hauck slid UNLV from Regional Program IV to Regional Program V in 5 seasons.

2010 defense ranked in the 5th percentile nationally — historically bad

−4.3 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 40% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Matt Luke’s Ole Miss run (2017–2019)

10th-best UNLV tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Mike Sanford Sr. (2005–2009) · succeeded by Tony Sanchez (2015–2019).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Record & result
Record	2-11	2-10	2-11	7-6	2-11
Postseason	—	—	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#103	#110	#101	#98	#116
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	43.7	35.0	50.9	48.8	51.7
Coordinators
OC	—	—	—	—	Timm Rosenbach
DC	—	—	—	—	Tim Hauck
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	9	8	20	24	26
Defense	5	26	37	30	6
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	38.6	23.5	43.9	47.5	48.0
Red-zone pass%	28.3	27.5	39.8	46.2	38.9
4th-down go%opp. territory	57.1	38.5	41.2	37.8	29.6

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Kicker from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2013: Lost to North Texas 14-36 Heart Of Dallas Bowl - Pres. By Plainscapital Bank

−4.3

15-49

2005–2009

Mike Sanford Sr. Steady

Mike Sanford Sr. slid the Rebels from Regional Program III to Regional Program IV in 5 seasons.

2009 defense ranked in the 1th percentile nationally — historically bad

−4.0 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 42% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bill Stewart’s West Virginia run (2008–2010)

6th-best UNLV tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed John Robinson (1999–2004) · succeeded by Bobby Hauck (2010–2014).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Record & result
Record	2-9	2-10	2-10	5-7	5-7
Postseason	—	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#76	#97	#90	#100	#84
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	51.8	55.4	48.3	48.8	51.7
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	42	14	40	50	31
Defense	42	48	45	10	1
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	53.8	48.2	43.2	43.2	52.5
Red-zone pass%	60.0	46.2	46.4	44.9	53.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	35.5	45.9	22.9	22.5	32.4

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

4 NFL Draft picks: Eric Wright (2007), Beau Bell (2008), Frank Summers (2009), Joseph Hawley (2010)

−4.0

16-43

1999–2004

John Robinson Steady

John Robinson moved the Rebels from Regional Program V to Regional Program IV in 6 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

+8.7 pts over 6 seasons · top 20% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Randy Walker’s Miami (OH) run (1990–1998)

4th-best UNLV tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Jeff Horton (1994–1998) · succeeded by Mike Sanford Sr. (2005–2009).

System Shift, on departure

Season	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
Record & result
Record	3-8	8-5	4-7	5-7	6-6	2-9
Postseason	—	W bowl	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	#84
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	42.3
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	50
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	55
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	38.8
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	50.0
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2000: Beat Arkansas 31-14 Bowl

8 NFL Draft picks: Quincy Sanders (2000), Anton Palepoi (2002), Sam Brandon (2002), Kevin Thomas (2002), Ahmad Miller (2002), Dominic Furio (2004), Adam Seward (2005), Ryan Claridge (2005)

+8.7

28-42

1994–1998

Jeff Horton Steady

Jeff Horton held UNLV at Regional Program V for 5 seasons.

−1.6 pts over 5 seasons · top 41% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike Bobo’s Colorado State run (2015–2019)

9th-best UNLV tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Strong (1990–1993) · succeeded by John Robinson (1999–2004).

Season	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998
Record & result
Record	7-5	2-9	1-11	3-8	0-11
Postseason	W bowl	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1994: Beat Central Michigan 52-24 Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Henry Bailey (1995), Mike Crawford (1997), Talance Sawyer (1999)

−1.6

13-44

1990–1993

Jim Strong Steady

Jim Strong slid UNLV from Regional Program IV to Regional Program V in 4 seasons.

−5.9 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 31% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tyrone Willingham’s Notre Dame run (2002–2004)

5th-best UNLV tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Wayne Nunnely (1986–1989) · succeeded by Jeff Horton (1994–1998).

2 NFL Draft picks: Lonnie Palelei (1993), Jerry Reynolds (1994)

−5.9

17-27

1986–1989

Wayne Nunnely Steady

Wayne Nunnely slid UNLV from Regional Program I to Regional Program IV in 4 seasons.

−9.7 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 14% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Brent Venables’s Oklahoma run (2022–now)

3rd-best UNLV tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Harvey Hyde (1982–1985) · succeeded by Jim Strong (1990–1993).

1 NFL Draft pick: Don Odegard (1990)

−9.7

19-25

1982–1985

Harvey Hyde Steady

Harvey Hyde slid UNLV from National Program III to Regional Program I in 4 seasons.

−2.9 pts over 4 seasons · top 50% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: John Bobo’s Arkansas State run (1993–1996)

2nd-best UNLV tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Tony Knap (1978–1981) · succeeded by Wayne Nunnely (1986–1989).

Season	1982	1983	1984	1985
Record & result
Record	3-8	7-4	11-2	5-5-1
Postseason	—	—	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1984: Beat Toledo 30-13 Bowl

2 NFL Draft picks: Kirk Dodge (1984), Randall Cunningham (1985)

−2.9

26-19-1

1978–1981

Tony Knap Steady

Tony Knap held UNLV at National Program III for 4 seasons.

1st-best UNLV tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Harvey Hyde (1982–1985).

6 NFL Draft picks: Aaron Mitchell (1979), Cleveland Jackson (1979), Ron Crews (1980), Bob Batton (1980), Sam Greene (1981), Todd Liebenstein (1982)

National Program III

29-15-2