Syracuse at North Carolina
North Carolina (4‑2) hosts Syracuse (2‑4). The market has North Carolina favored by 9.5. The model gives North Carolina a 60% shot. Syracuse’s offense is at the 24th percentile on efficiency; North Carolina’s defense is at the 66th.
How they got here
Last three games
Syracuse · 2-4
Rated 143rd in our preseason ratings, 112th now, up 31 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
North Carolina · 4-2
Rated 136th in our preseason ratings, 61st now, up 75 spots.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 4-point win over Duke as a 3-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Syracuse’s EPA/play against North Carolina, 42 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Syracuse’s EPA/play against North Carolina’s defense
Syracuse offense, 24th percentile · North Carolina defense, 66th
North Carolina’s passing EPA against Syracuse’s defense
North Carolina offense, 52nd percentile · Syracuse defense, 86th
North Carolina’s explosive plays against Syracuse’s defense
North Carolina offense, 19th percentile · Syracuse defense, 52nd
What’s at stake
Syracuse
- Syracuse needs 4 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 31% to get there with a win here, 8% with a loss.
- Syracuse hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2024.
North Carolina
- North Carolina needs 2 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 95% to get there with a win here, 75% with a loss.
- North Carolina is the basketball school with a 138-year football program and the patience to keep funding the experiment.
The series
North Carolina leads the series 5-3
8 meetings since 1995 · North Carolina has won the last 3
- 2025North Carolina 27-10
- 2023North Carolina 40-7
- 2020North Carolina 31-6
- 2018Syracuse 40-37
- 2003Syracuse 49-47
Each line is North Carolina’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Syracuse
The chip · vs the national mediaFans are tired of being the program everyone files under 'historic Northeast football' and forgets — the place pundits treat as a recruiting pit stop, a job Fran Brown is supposed to use as a launchpad rather than a destination. They want him to prove the doubters and the bigger jobs wrong.
What this game touches
The Achilles that stole the breakout. After Fran Brown's electric 10-3 debut in 2024, QB Steve Angeli was leading the nation in passing through four games in 2025 — and tore his Achilles in the second half of an upset of Clemson; Syracuse, just 3-1 to that point, lost its last eight to finish 3-9, last in the ACC.
North Carolina
The chip · vs the national mediaFans grew tired of being a national punchline — the basketball school in over its head, the tabloid story, the 4-8 schadenfreude — and want the people enjoying the experiment's stumble to remember it's only year one of a five-year bet.
What this game touches
The Belichick first year. The boldest hire in college football history opened 4-8 (2-6 ACC), ending a six-year bowl streak — three season-opening losses by a combined 120-33, a 19.3-points-per-game offense, a coordinator purge, and a tabloid storyline around Belichick's personal life that swallowed the football.
Best players
Syracuse
- Umari Hatcher (WR) · 784 receiving yards
- Chris D'Appolonia (LB) · 45 tackles
- Chris Peal (DB) · 30 tackles
North Carolina
- Derek Mcdonald (LB) · 55 tackles
- Peyton Seelmann (LB) · 53 tackles
- Gregory Smith (DB) · 39 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. Syracuse: Tylik Hill (430 rushing yards).
The total has moved up 2.0 points since opening (44.5 → 46.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Syracuse fans are in a better mood than North Carolina fans (62nd vs 42nd among FBS fanbases), even with North Carolina favored.
- Model · 60%
- Line · 78%
- North Carolina fans · 42nd
- Syracuse fans · 62nd
North Carolina favored by 9.5 · Total 46.5
North Carolina by 9.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
North Carolina’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 387 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Cool. Bring a jacket.
Syracuse at North Carolina · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 7:30 pm ET · ACC Network · Kenan Stadium.
- 54°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 12 mphwind gusts
- 95weather score, Comfortable
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 9:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
This game among this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Kenan Stadium: noon Saturdays score 89, 3:30 pm 88, 7:30 pm 95.
- noon: 89, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 88, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
North Carolina is worth +1.6 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 11th percentile.
51% at home, 43% on the road against FBS opponents (22-21 home, 19-25 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.2 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 516 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
North Carolina
- Wk 2Wvs East Tennessee State35-3
- Wk 3Lat Clemson20-28
- Wk 5Lvs Notre Dame26-37
- Wk 6Wat Pittsburgh21-17
- Wk 7Wat Duke24-20
Syracuse
- Wk 2Lvs California18-21
- Wk 3Lat Pittsburgh13-27
- Wk 5Wat UConn42-41
- Wk 6Lat Virginia25-28
- Wk 7Lvs Louisville26-34
Power rating by week
North Carolina is rated 5.1 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The total rose 2 points.
Total: 44.5 → 46.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- North Carolina5th2-1
- Syracuse17th0-4
Last meeting in our History pages
- Syracuse 40, North Carolina 37Oct 20, 2018