San José State: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2024–now

Ken Niumatalolo Steady

Ken Niumatalolo slid San José State from Regional Program III to Regional Program IV in 3 seasons.

Averaged a 58% pass rate — among the most pass-heavy stretches in FBS since 2004

−2.4 pts over 3 seasons · top 46% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Gary Nord’s UTEP run (2000–2003)

10th-best San José State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Brent Brennan (2017–2023).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	7-6	3-9	4-5
Postseason	L bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	#104	#117	#129
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	63.2	60.9	48.7
Coordinators
OC	Craig Stutzmann	Craig Stutzmann	Craig Stutzmann
DC	Derrick Odum	Derrick Odum	Bojay Filimoeatu
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	33	47	24
Defense	68	30	61
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	60.1	55.1	43.7
Red-zone pass%	63.7	54.8	44.6
4th-down go%opp. territory	33.3	36.4	28.2

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

+1.4 pts

#104 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

+8.8 pts

#64 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-15

#75 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)

6′1″, 218 lbs

across 36 of 44 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

-5.8 lbs

#254 of 255 · bottom quarter

Avg. class year

#246 of 255 · bottom quarter

Top states: CA (22), UT (5), WA (2), AZ (2), AL (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

51.6

position-weighted

Talent lost

56.2

position-weighted

Net

-4.6

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Robert McDaniel (QB) from UCLA

Biggest loss: Walker Eget (QB) to Duke

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

209 lbs

6′1″ avg · #484 of 767 · middle half

Running back

197 lbs

5′9″ avg · #707 of 791 · bottom quarter

Wide receiver

186 lbs

6′1″ avg · #668 of 791 · bottom quarter

Tight end

229 lbs

6′3″ avg · #711 of 731 · bottom quarter

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

278 lbs

6′3″ avg · #780 of 779 · bottom quarter

Linebacker

216 lbs

6′1″ avg · #758 of 772 · bottom quarter

Cornerback

187 lbs

6′0″ avg · #536 of 771 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Safety via the portal

86%

#7 of 218 stints

Buys Cornerback via the portal

80%

#19 of 236 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2024: Lost to South Florida 39-41 Hawaiʻi Bowl

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Nick Nash (2024)

AI Narratives — “San José State — stat check”.

−2.4

14-20

2017–2023

Brent Brennan Steady

Brent Brennan moved the Spartans from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 7 seasons.

2017 offense ranked in the 2th percentile nationally — historically bad

−1.7 pts over 7 seasons · bottom 37% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mario Cristobal’s Florida International run (2007–2012)

9th-best San José State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Ron Caragher (2013–2016) · succeeded by Ken Niumatalolo (2024–now).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Record & result
Record	2-11	1-11	5-7	7-1	5-7	7-5	7-6
Postseason	—	—	—	L bowl	—	L bowl	L bowl
Recruiting rank	#98	#94	#117	#114	#119	#75	#111
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	46.2	55.8	61.7	55.0	53.3	55.6	46.7
Coordinators
OC	Andrew Sowder	Kevin McGiven	Kevin McGiven	Kevin McGiven	Kevin McGiven	Kevin McGiven	Kevin McGiven
DC	Derrick Odum	Derrick Odum	Derrick Odum	Derrick Odum	Derrick Odum	Derrick Odum	Derrick Odum
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	2	7	60	54	17	56	81
Defense	13	27	26	66	73	43	52
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	37.0	52.0	60.5	48.5	48.3	55.6	40.5
Red-zone pass%	50.7	51.2	46.2	44.9	42.3	54.0	30.9
4th-down go%opp. territory	33.3	21.4	28.6	25.9	18.9	30.0	27.3

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-3.8 pts

#128 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-1.3 pts

#113 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

2.9★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-4

#145 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 219 lbs

across 18 of 24 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

-6.5 lbs

#256 of 255 · bottom quarter

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: CA (14), HI (3), OH (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

52.8

position-weighted

Talent lost

48.6

position-weighted

Net

+4.2

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Jay Butterfield (QB) from Oregon

Biggest loss: Alec Trujillo (QB) to Iowa Central C.C.

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Andrew Sowder → Kevin McGiven · 2018

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 37.0% → 52.0% (+15.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 99% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

199 lbs

6′2″ avg · #710 of 767 · bottom quarter

Running back

200 lbs

5′9″ avg · #637 of 791 · bottom quarter

Wide receiver

187 lbs

6′1″ avg · #646 of 791 · bottom quarter

Tight end

230 lbs

6′3″ avg · #705 of 731 · bottom quarter

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

296 lbs

6′4″ avg · #741 of 779 · bottom quarter

D-line

277 lbs

6′3″ avg · #525 of 753 · middle half

Linebacker

220 lbs

6′1″ avg · #705 of 772 · bottom quarter

Cornerback

189 lbs

6′0″ avg · #467 of 771 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Running back from high school

83%

#186 of 208 stints

Grows Edge from high school

91%

#190 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2020: Lost to Ball State 13-34 Offerpad Arizona Bowl2022: Lost to Eastern Michigan 27-41 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl2023: Lost to Coastal Carolina 14-24 EasyPost Hawaiʻi Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Jermaine Kelly (2018), Josh Oliver (2019), Viliami Fehoko (2023)

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Cade Hall (2020)

−1.7

34-48

2013–2016

Ron Caragher Steady

Ron Caragher held the Spartans at Regional Program IV for 4 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

+2.1 pts over 4 seasons · top 24% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Al Golden’s Temple run (2006–2010)

12th-best San José State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Mike MacIntyre (2010–2012) · succeeded by Brent Brennan (2017–2023).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2013	2014	2015	2016
Record & result
Record	6-6	3-9	6-7	4-8
Postseason	—	—	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#121	#83	#62	#84
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	53.4	49.7	42.4	43.6
Coordinators
OC	—	Jimmie Dougherty	Al Borges	Al Borges
DC	—	Greg Robinson	Greg Robinson	Ron English
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	82	41	67	21
Defense	6	50	51	21
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	48.2	42.9	36.0	34.6
Red-zone pass%	50.5	43.3	32.1	37.1
4th-down go%opp. territory	26.3	33.3	40.5	32.6

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

+0.9 pts

#107 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-7.8 pts

#137 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Jimmie Dougherty → Al Borges · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 42.9% → 36.0% (-6.8 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 80% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Greg Robinson → Ron English · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2015: Beat Georgia State 27-16 Autonation Cure Bowl

5 NFL Draft picks: Bene Benwikere (2014), David Fales (2014), Akeem King (2015), Tyler Ervin (2016), Wes Schweitzer (2016)

+2.1

19-30

2010–2012

Mike MacIntyre Steady

Mike MacIntyre moved San José State from Regional Program V to Regional Program IV in 3 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

+1.9 pts over 3 seasons · top 25% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jedd Fisch’s Arizona run (2021–2023)

15th-best San José State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Dick Tomey (2005–2009) · succeeded by Ron Caragher (2013–2016).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2010	2011	2012
Record & result
Record	1-12	5-7	10-2
Postseason	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#96	#116	#104
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	55.4	56.9	51.2
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	36	40	75
Defense	9	31	93
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	51.5	44.0	50.3
Red-zone pass%	50.0	52.0	44.9
4th-down go%opp. territory	6.7	14.0	23.5

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

1 NFL Draft pick: David Quessenberry (2013)

+1.9

16-21

2005–2009

Dick Tomey Steady

Dick Tomey moved the Spartans from Regional Program V to Regional Program IV in 5 seasons.

2008 offense ranked in the 1th percentile nationally — historically bad

+2.9 pts over 5 seasons · top 20% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jeff Tisdel’s Nevada run (1996–1999)

14th-best San José State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Fitz Hill (2001–2004) · succeeded by Mike MacIntyre (2010–2012).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Record & result
Record	3-8	9-4	5-7	6-6	2-10
Postseason	—	W bowl	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#110	#88	#94	#109	#116
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	48.1	37.5	53.9	49.8	53.4
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	8	19	15	1	17
Defense	53	41	55	75	10
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	55.8	34.4	48.1	42.7	41.9
Red-zone pass%	25.0	23.3	33.3	42.6	46.3
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	33.3	25.5	30.8

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2006: Beat New Mexico 20-12 Bowl

6 NFL Draft picks: James Jones (2007), John Broussard (2007), Dwight Lowery (2008), Jarron Gilbert (2009), Christopher Owens (2009), Coye Francies (2009)

+2.9

25-35

2001–2004

Fitz Hill Steady

Fitz Hill slid the Spartans from Regional Program IV to Regional Program V in 4 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−3.6 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 44% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jerry Baldwin’s Louisiana run (1999–2001)

16th-best San José State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Dave Baldwin (1997–2000) · succeeded by Dick Tomey (2005–2009).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2001	2002	2003	2004
Record & result
Record	3-9	6-7	3-8	2-9
Postseason	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	#94
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	37.4
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	33
Defense	—	—	—	17
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	29.2
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	14.9
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	57.1

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Tackle from high school

100%

#198 of 223 stints

2 NFL Draft picks: Tim Provost (2003), Courtney Anderson (2004)

−3.6

14-33

1997–2000

Dave Baldwin Steady

Dave Baldwin held the Spartans at Regional Program IV for 4 seasons.

−4.8 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 38% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Karl Dorrell’s UCLA run (2003–2007)

13th-best San José State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed John Ralston (1993–1996) · succeeded by Fitz Hill (2001–2004).

3 NFL Draft picks: David Loverne (1999), Lyle West (1999), Sean Brewer (2001)

−4.8

18-27

1993–1996

John Ralston Steady

John Ralston slid the Spartans from National Program III to Regional Program I in 4 seasons.

−14.0 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 4% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Shane Montgomery’s Miami (OH) run (2005–2008)

6th-best San José State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Ron Turner (1992) · succeeded by Dave Baldwin (1997–2000).

−14.0

11-34

1992

Ron Turner Short tenure

7-4

1990–1991

Terry Shea Short tenure

15-6-2

1984–1989

Claude Gilbert Steady

Claude Gilbert held San José State at National Program III for 6 seasons.

−1.5 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 38% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Dean Pees’s Kent State run (1998–2003)

1st-best San José State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Jack Elway (1979–1983) · succeeded by Terry Shea (1990–1991).

Season	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989
Record & result
Record	6-5	2-8-1	10-2	10-2	4-8	6-5
Postseason	—	—	W bowl	L bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1986: Beat Miami (OH) 37-7 Bowl1987: Lost to Eastern Michigan 27-30 Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Tony Smith (1985), Jay Taylor (1989), Johnny Johnson (1990)

−1.5

38-30-1

1979–1983

Jack Elway Steady

Jack Elway held the Spartans at National Program III for 5 seasons.

+3.3 pts over 5 seasons · top 19% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Marcus Freeman’s Notre Dame run (2021–now)

2nd-best San José State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Lynn Stiles (1976–1978) · succeeded by Claude Gilbert (1984–1989).

Season	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983
Record & result
Record	6-4-1	7-4	9-3	8-3	5-6
Postseason	—	—	L bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1981: Lost to Toledo 25-27 Bowl

8 NFL Draft picks: Jewerl Thomas (1980), Ed Luther (1980), Mark Nichols (1981), Gerald Willhite (1982), Stacey Bailey (1982), Gill Byrd (1983), Ken Thomas (1983), Eric Richardson (1984)

+3.3

35-20-1

1976–1978

Lynn Stiles Steady

Lynn Stiles moved San José State from Regional Program I to National Program III in 3 seasons.

+1.2 pts over 3 seasons · top 28% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Herm Edwards’s Arizona State run (2018–2022)

4th-best San José State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Darryl Rogers (1973–1975) · succeeded by Jack Elway (1979–1983).

4 NFL Draft picks: Wilson Faumuina (1977), Rick Kane (1977), Gerald Small (1978), Frank Manumaleuga (1979)

+1.2

18-16

1973–1975

Darryl Rogers Builder≈

Darryl Rogers raised the Spartans from Regional Program IV to Regional Program I.

+12.4 pts over 3 seasons · top 3% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Brian Kelly’s Cincinnati run (2006–2009)

5th-best San José State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed DeWayne King (1970–1972) · succeeded by Lynn Stiles (1976–1978).

4 NFL Draft picks: Louis Wright (1975), Dave Wasick (1975), Kim Bokamper (1976), Carl Ekern (1976)

+12.4

22-9-3

1970–1972

DeWayne King Steady

DeWayne King moved San José State from Regional Program V to Regional Program IV in 3 seasons.

+3.9 pts over 3 seasons · top 17% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Woody Widenhofer’s Vanderbilt run (1997–2001)

11th-best San José State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Joe McMullen (1969–1970) · succeeded by Darryl Rogers (1973–1975).

Season	1970	1971	1972
Record & result
Record	1-7	5-6-1	4-7
Postseason	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—

Postseason detail1971: Lost to Memphis 9-28 Bowl

1 NFL Draft pick: Cody Jones (1973)

+3.9

10-20-1

1969–1970

Joe McMullen Short tenure

3-10

1965–1968

Harry Anderson Steady

Harry Anderson slid the Spartans from Regional Program II to Regional Program IV in 4 seasons.

−8.6 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 18% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mark Duffner’s Maryland run (1992–1996)

7th-best San José State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Robert Titchenal (1957–1964) · succeeded by Joe McMullen (1969–1970).

−8.6

13-26

1957–1964

Robert Titchenal Steady

Robert Titchenal held the Spartans at Regional Program II for 8 seasons.

+1.3 pts over 8 seasons · bottom 45% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Joe Glenn’s Wyoming run (2003–2008)

8th-best San José State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Robert Bronzan (1950–1956) · succeeded by Harry Anderson (1965–1968).

+1.3

33-45-1

1950–1956

Robert Bronzan Steady

Robert Bronzan held San José State at National Program III for 7 seasons.

3rd-best San José State tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Robert Titchenal (1957–1964).

National Program III

32-30-5