cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Malachi Bailey /Arizona

Malachi Bailey

DL · Arizona · Sr · #44

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

22 TACKLES · 0.5 SACKS

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Arizona for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Arizona for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Defensive line · Arizona

Returning around him

  • 56% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
  • 4 Arizona players drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: +2 net (22 in / 20 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Arizona · Last season: 9-4 (AP #21) · Talent rank #67 · 2026 recruiting class #50

DL · ARIZONA · BIG 12

Malachi Bailey

  • 4
  • #44
  • 6-2 | 273 lb
  • Atlanta, GA

CFB Zeitgeist Score

47

Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by tackles for loss at the 69th percentile.

Heisman Heat

Awaiting

Not on the live Heisman board this week.

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

TOP DEFENSE AWARD

Nagurski

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R04 · Rotational

Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
No recruit profile
CFB
College
Arizona
2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionDL
Class4
Jersey44
Measurements6-2 | 273 lb
HometownAtlanta, GA
Primary teamArizona

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree Not on file No matched recruiting profile in the loaded archive
Composite rating -- Composite rating unavailable for this player
Signed with -- Commitment history unavailable
Origin -- Hometown and high school unavailable
Class Profile Context
No recruiting profile is on file for this player.

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens

Where the model places this player relative to the rest of the Heisman field.

Current nowcast--Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast--Where the full season sim points
Win probability--Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability--Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability--Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Malachi Bailey

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Malachi Bailey

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 12g
22Tackles
3.5Tackles for loss
0.5Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.3Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
24Tackles
3.8Tackles for loss
0.5Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 22): needs 58/game over remaining 1.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 22): needs 78/game over remaining 1.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 0.5): needs 5.5/game over remaining 1.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 0.5): needs 9.5/game over remaining 1.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Malachi Bailey is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Arizona's defense, with 0.5 sacks, 3.5 tackles for loss, and 1 interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place -- -- win | -- finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Defensive rarity 0.5 sacks | 3.5 TFL

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 22 11 solo | #1869/4942 (62nd pct)
TFL 3.5 Backfield disruption | #869/4972 (83rd pct)
Sacks 0.5 Pass-rush finish | #1501/4972 (70th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-disruption defender against FBS defenders.

High-disruption defender

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
22 62nd
SOLO
11 60th
TFL
3.5 83rd
SACK
0.5 70th
QBH
4 85th

Coverage & Takeaways

INT
1 65th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1W 40-6vs Hawai'i301.00.510
Wk 2W 48-3vs Weber State111.00.00
Wk 3W 23-17vs Kansas State211.50.00
Wk 5L 14-39@ Iowa State000.00.00
Wk 7L 27-33vs BYU530.00.00Season-high 5 tackles
Wk 8L 28-31@ Houston100.00.00
Wk 10W 52-17@ Colorado110.00.00
Wk 11W 24-20vs Kansas110.00.00
Wk 12W 30-24@ Cincinnati110.00.00
Wk 13W 41-17vs Baylor100.00.00
Wk 14W 23-7@ Arizona State100.00.00
BowlL 19-24@ SMU530.00.00
Total22113.50.510
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2025Arizona9-4HC: Brent Brennan · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025Arizona22113.50.5--1--
Career1 loaded season22113.50.5--1--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT 1 0 pick-six TD | #308/869 (65th pct)
Pass breakups 0 Coverage disruption
QB pressures 4 Quarterback hurries | #291/1878 (85th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 22 #1869/4942 62nd pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 3.5 #869/4972 83rd pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 0.5 #1501/4972 70th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Interceptions 1 #308/869 65th pct Takeawaysvs FBS DEF
Defense QB hurries 4 #291/1878 85th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 11 #1855/4584 60th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense INT return avg 2.0 #512/578 12th pct Takeawaysvs FBS DEF
Defense INT return yards 2 #527/578 9th pct Takeawaysvs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home6g2.20.60.10.0
Road6g1.50.00.00.0

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins8g1.40.40.10.0
Losses4g2.80.00.00.0

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-76g2.70.60.10.0
Weeks 8+6g1.00.00.00.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the DL cohort

47Mid-pack
7 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: qb hurries (87th). Concern: passes defended (17th).

QB hurries#288 / 2975 · 88th pct
4defe
Tackles for loss#866 / 2975 · 69th pct
3.5defe
Sacks#1367 / 2975 · 51st pct
0.5defe
Tackles#1869 / 2975 · 36th pct
22defe
Solo tackles#1855 / 2975 · 35th pct
11defe
Interceptions#304 / 817 · 31st pct
1inte
Passes defended#1916 / 2975 · 18th pct
0defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · DL · 2025

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics
Malachi BaileyArizonaMarcAnthony ParkerNavy· 65% simEthan WesloskiNorth Texas· 63% simDaniel WingateMaryland· 62% sim
QB hurries
88
Bailey
88
Parker
95
Wesloski
72
Wingate
Tackles for loss
69
Bailey
87
Parker
95
Wesloski
87
Wingate
Sacks
51
Bailey
80
Parker
74
Wesloski
74
Wingate
Tackles
36
Bailey
98
Parker
99
Wesloski
98
Wingate
Solo tackles
35
Bailey
96
Parker
99
Wesloski
99
Wingate
Interceptions
31
Bailey
31
Parker
31
Wesloski
31
Wingate
Passes defended
18
Bailey
18
Parker
18
Wesloski
48
Wingate

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Two-Gap Base

Stout at the point of attack; controls his gap and stacks blocks.

IDL

His 2025 production profile sits closest to TyQaze Leggs’s 2024 season.

TyQaze Leggs

91%match

Marshall · 2024

#2

Terrell Cooper

TCU · 2022

89%
#3

Earl Barquet

UL Monroe · 2023

88%
#4

Rushawn Lawrence

Minnesota · 2025

88%
#5

Jayden Gray

Louisiana Tech · 2023

85%

Matches TyQaze on

Weight
Sack rate
Height

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Rushawn Lawrence's senior season at Minnesota (2025).

Rushawn Lawrence

87%match

Minnesota · 2025

#2

Sione Lolohea

Oregon State · 2023

87%
#3

Rondell Bothroyd

Oklahoma · 2023

86%
#4

Louce Julien

Toledo · 2025

84%
#5

Justin Williams

Wake Forest · 2023

83%

Matches Rushawn on

Class year
Height
Weight

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Brent Brennan

Pass share

49.7%

447 pass / 452 run

Plays / game

69.2

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

7.9%

340 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2025

1 coach
2025
Brent Brennan
Arizona

Played his entire career under Brent Brennan.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownAtlanta, GA
Height6'2"
Weight273 lb
Class4
PositionDL
Jersey44

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
This player hasn’t appeared on a Heisman ballot tracked by the model.

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Arizona Big 12 DL 4 No. 44 | 6-2 | 273 lb | Atlanta, GA