Iowa is moving up in the ratings, and the data says it's real.
- Coverage leans bullish — but with real dissent
- Win total 7.5 — line flat since open
- Ferentz's 26-11 run has Iowa in dynasty territory for the first time since 2021, but th…
How past storylines turned out
Iowa's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
The gap market · model · fans
CFP title odds: #26 in the field (0.6% implied) counted. SP+ model: #12 in the field counted. Win total: 7.5 wins — no movement since open counted. Coverage leans bullish — but with real dissent ~ our read.
The model rates Iowa #12 in SP+ — the market has them #26 in CFP title odds. 14-spot gap: the model is more bullish than the market ~ our read.
The two cases
“Jimmy Rogers believes Iowa State can win. And he wants his team to see it”
“Burning questions for Iowa State football offensive position groups”
Watch next
The non-obvious thing to track
The non-obvious consequence of climbing the power tiers is the expectation tax: the same season that looked like a breakout last year now reads as a disappointment. Watch whether the schedule lets the run actually show up on the field.
~ our read
Rooms tap to switch
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
The 'wait and see' counter — power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
How it developed newest first
Iowa has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 14% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 24% a year ago.
a 26-11 record over the last three regular seasons
why it mattersFerentz's 26-11 run has Iowa in dynasty territory for the first time since 2021, but the market's 7.5-win projection suggests skepticism about sustaining that grind. ~ our read
Iowa enters 2025 rated No. 12 in SP+ (+19.7).
why it mattersIowa enters 2025 at No. 12 in SP+ — the 9-4 record under Ferentz's sixth season suggests the ceiling is higher than fan unease implies. ~ our read