Air Force
1-1Mountain West · Troy Calhoun, year 20 (140-98) · Falcon Stadium · 46,692 · 26,336 avg in 2026
LastL 32–38 vs North Dakota State · Sat Sep 12 · Blake Fletcher 1 INT, 14 tackles
Nextat Nevada · Sat Sep 26 · time TBA · Mackay Stadium · series 6-2, won the last 3 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
All 77 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.33 EPA/play | 9 | 2 | 8 / 15 | 53.3 | 122 | 8.1 | 0 | 1 | 108.3 | — | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.21 EPA/play | 2 | 2 | 23 | 91 | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 6 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 #22 FBS |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 46 of 84 classified this way. Played in 2 of 3 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2023 class View Blake Fletcher's full player page | |||||||||
| 8 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 #22 FBS | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 23 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 36 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 #22 FBS | 1 | 0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 2 | 2/3 | 66.7 | 6/7 | 12 | 52 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 2 | 5 | 280 | 56 | 67 | 1 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
2026 stat leaders · Air Force
through 2 games
2026 stat leaders · Air ForceBlake Fletcher leads Air Force with 21 tackles through 2 games.
How They Play · 2025Air Force fields an elite run-heavy, methodical, ball-control offense behind a porous, gives up the big play defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Air Force reads strongest in passing epa (top 1%) and success rate (top 11%); the crux lives in rushing epa allowed, where Air Force sits at the 0th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · Air Force · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Air Force is worth +2.7 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom third of FBS, 26th percentile of 133 programs
62% at home, 49% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (24–15 home, 20–21 away). Interval ±3.5.
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Air Force has beaten the number by +2.2 more at home than away over 71 games — inside the ±6.3 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Falcon Stadium seats 46,692 and has averaged 56% full (26,299, 26 games reported). Visitors cover a median 801 miles to get here (2018-present). 8% of the 2026 roster (11 of 137 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 47 home games since 2018. No national trip rank shown: the ranked field is FBS venues only and leaves out the service academies and venues with too few measured games. Service-academy rosters are filled by congressional nomination rather than ordinary recruiting and run well past normal FBS size — read the local share against that.
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Scheme claims
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Air Force's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 87th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 78th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Halftime identity
Air Force by half
1st-half offense ranks 60th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 84th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Tendency drift
Season by season
How Air Force’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Air Force
Most similar programs · Air ForceReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Conditions
61°F average kickoff temp; 6% of games had measurable precipitation; 10 mph average wind.
Based on 71 home games with weather data.